UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros vs UT-Arlington Mavericks prediction: UT Arlington's relentless offensive rebounding tests UTRGV's soft defensive glass
Two rebuilt rosters meet in Arlington, and the Mavericks' habit of chasing their own misses could decide it against a Vaqueros defense that forces turnovers but gives up second chances.
UT-Arlington Mavericks covered the closing spread (UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros +4.5). The game went over the closing total of 139.5.
| Spread | UT Arlington -4.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 139.5 |
- UT Arlington wants to run and crash the glass; UTRGV, in its first road game, wants a slow game full of steals.
- Watch UTA's offensive rebounding, 47th nationally, against a UTRGV defensive glass that ranks 223rd.
- UTA is -3.5 with a 141.5 total, both unchanged. UTRGV is 0-2 against the spread, and both of its lined games went under.
Strangers with a rebounding habit
Both rosters were rebuilt from the floor up. UT Arlington carries 12 new players on a 14-man roster in its first United Athletic Conference season. UTRGV returns just 7.7% of last season's minutes and opens a new era under first-year coach Brandon Chambers. Last season's team numbers, and UTA's 58-50 win on UTRGV's floor last December, say little about tonight's game.
What the new Mavericks have shown is a taste for second chances. They grab 40.6% of their own misses, 47th in Division I. That lines up against the weakest part of UTRGV's defense: the Vaqueros secure 68.8% of opponents' misses, which ranks 223rd. Teodor Simic leads the charge off the bench with 8.5 rebounds a game, and UTA is also the bigger team by minutes-weighted height.
UTRGV's counter is shot-blocking. The Vaqueros swat 16.1% of opponents' two-point tries, 38th nationally, so UTA's putbacks won't come free.
UTRGV lives inside the arc
Chambers' team barely shoots threes. Only 33.1% of UTRGV's attempts come from deep, 322nd in the country. Jace Posey, the TCU transfer who leads the Vaqueros in scoring, has attempted one three all season.
That steers the offense straight into UTA's strength. The Mavericks hold opponents to 40.1% on two-pointers, 33rd nationally. If Posey and Oregon transfer Devon Pryor can't get to the rim cleanly, UTRGV has little shooting to fall back on.
Steals and shaky free throws
UTRGV's best weapon is its hands. The Vaqueros force turnovers on 22.4% of opponent possessions, 81st nationally. UTA gives the ball away at a 16.9% clip, a middle-of-the-pack mark, so the guards will need to be careful against the press. Easy baskets off steals matter more for a team that struggles to score in the half court.
The free-throw line is where neither team wants this decided. UTRGV gets there often but makes only 60.9% of its attempts, 337th in the country. UTA is barely better at 64.0%. In a game priced at a few points, a final minute of fouls could swing the result either way.
Two speeds and a steady number
The Mavericks push the ball, averaging 76.6 possessions per 40 minutes. UTRGV plays at 68.8. It is also playing its first road game after three straight at home, against a UTA team coming off six days of rest.
The market hasn't budged. UT Arlington has been a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 141.5 since our feed first recorded the line, and both numbers have held. The Vaqueros are 0-2 against the spread and have gone under in both lined games, including a loss to Texas State. UTA covered both of its lines as an underdog. Once results are adjusted for opponent strength, UTRGV's net rating sits 317th, a reminder that its strong raw defensive numbers came largely against weak opponents.
Neither program has reported an injury this week.
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros vs UT-Arlington Mavericks line movement and odds
| Book | Vaqueros ML | Mavericks ML | Vaqueros spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetRivers | +165 | -220 | +4.5 (-113) | o138.5 (-110) |
| DraftKings | +170 | -205 | +4.5 (-108) | o139.5 (-105) |
| ESPN BET | +170 | -200 | +4.5 (-110) | o138.5 (-115) |
| Fanatics | +160 | -195 | +4.5 (-110) | o139.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +162 | -194 | +4.5 (-110) | o139.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +165 | -220 | +4.5 (-110) | o138.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros vs UT-Arlington Mavericks
On the Kalshi moneyline: UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros: 45% of bets, 66% of the money; UT-Arlington Mavericks: 55% of bets, 34% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: UT-Arlington Mavericks -3.5: 61% of bets, 41% of the money; UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros +3.5: 40% of bets, 59% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 141.5: 85% of bets, 15% of the money; Under 141.5: 15% of bets, 85% of the money.
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros vs UT-Arlington Mavericks stats (this season)
| Stat | UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros | UT-Arlington Mavericks |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Adjusted offensive efficiency | 103.3 (279th of 364) | 105.8 (219th of 364) |
| Adjusted defensive efficiency | 110.9 (310th of 364) | 105.1 (125th of 364) |
| Adjusted net efficiency | -7.5 (317th of 364) | 0.7 (167th of 364) |
| Pace | 68.8 (245th of 364) | 76.6 (36th of 364) |
| Effective FG% | 50.9% (217th of 364) | 53.0% (160th of 364) |
| Opponent effective FG% | 43.4% (60th of 364) | 41.3% (33rd of 364) |
| Turnover rate | 18.8% (233rd of 364) | 16.9% (149th of 364) |
| Offensive rebound % | 33.3% (193rd of 364) | 40.6% (46th of 364) |
| 3-point % | 32.1% (206th of 364) | 34.3% (160th of 364) |
| Free throw rate | 40.8% (101st of 364) | 30.3% (263rd of 364) |
Key players
- Jace Posey (UT Rio Grande Valley): Posey averages 16.3 points and 7.0 rebounds with a 27.1% usage rate, almost entirely inside the arc.
- B.B. Knight (UT Rio Grande Valley): Knight is the Vaqueros' main perimeter threat, hitting 6 of 20 threes after shooting 13.9% from deep at Lamar last season.
- Devon Pryor (UT Rio Grande Valley): Pryor sets up teammates with 3.3 assists a game but is shooting 33.3% from the field.
- Bobby Crawford Jr. (UT Rio Grande Valley): Crawford has made 90.9% of his shots and adds 6.0 rebounds a game.
- Teodor Simic (UT Arlington): Simic averages 14.8 points and 8.5 rebounds off the bench and scored a career-high 24 against Portland.
- Mier Panoam (UT Arlington): Panoam averages 4.5 assists and 2.2 steals while posting a 124.6 offensive rating.
- Noah Shelby (UT Arlington): Shelby has hit 10 of 31 threes and scored 22 against Bethesda.
- Niko Bundalo (UT Arlington): Bundalo takes a team-high 34.0% usage rate and averages 7.2 rebounds in 19.5 minutes.
Numbers that matter
| UTA offensive rebound % | 40.6% | Ranks 47th nationally and targets a UTRGV defensive glass ranked 223rd. |
|---|---|---|
| UTRGV forced turnover rate | 22.4% | Ranks 81st and is the Vaqueros' clearest path to easy points. |
| UTRGV free throw % | 60.9% | Ranks 337th, a liability if the game is close late. |
| UTA pace | 76.6 | Possessions per 40 minutes, well above UTRGV's 68.8. |
| Spread | -3.5 | UT Arlington has been favored by this margin since the line was first posted, with no movement. |
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros vs UT-Arlington Mavericks: quick answers
What was the final score of UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros vs UT-Arlington Mavericks?
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros 77, UT-Arlington Mavericks 85 (final). UT-Arlington Mavericks covered the closing spread (UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros +4.5). The game went over the closing total of 139.5.
Who is favored in UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros vs UT-Arlington Mavericks?
UT Arlington is favored by 4.5 points (UT Arlington -4.5).
What is the over/under for UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros vs UT-Arlington Mavericks?
The total is 139.5 points.
When is UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros vs UT-Arlington Mavericks?
Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET.
Where is UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros vs UT-Arlington Mavericks played?
College Park Center, Arlington, TX.
Has the line moved for UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros vs UT-Arlington Mavericks?
Yes: UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros opened +4 and is now +4.5, and the total moved from 141 to 138.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros vs UT-Arlington Mavericks?
On the Kalshi moneyline: UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros: 45% of bets, 66% of the money; UT-Arlington Mavericks: 55% of bets, 34% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: UT-Arlington Mavericks -3.5: 61% of bets, 41% of the money; UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros +3.5: 40% of bets, 59% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 141.5: 85% of bets, 15% of the money; Under 141.5: 15% of bets, 85% of the money.