Cincinnati Bearcats vs Dayton Flyers prediction: Cincinnati's turnover-hunting defense tests Aiden Derkack and a reeling Dayton
A Bearcats roster of strangers plays its first road game against a Flyers team that has lost two straight at home and keeps giving the ball away.
Cincinnati Bearcats covered the closing spread (Cincinnati Bearcats -6.5). The game went over the closing total of 146.5.
| Spread | Cincinnati -6 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 146.5 |
- Expect Cincinnati to turn Dayton over and grind the pace down, with its shaky outside shooting keeping the Flyers within reach.
- Freshman Aiden Derkack inside against a Cincinnati frontcourt that blocks shots well but is missing Jayden Hastings.
- Cincinnati -6.5 and 147.5, unchanged since our feed first saw them; Cincinnati is 0-3 to the under, Dayton 3-0 to the over.
The turnover squeeze
Jerrod Calhoun's first Cincinnati team has one clear identity after three games: it takes the ball. The Bearcats force turnovers on 27.6% of opponent possessions, 13th in the country, and their steal rate ranks 27th. That pressure carried them through a 79-53 opener against American.
Dayton is the wrong opponent to bring a loose handle into that. The Flyers turn it over on 19.0% of their possessions, 246th nationally, and their transfer guards have struggled to settle. Landen Joseph, the Marshall transfer, carries a 25.1% usage rate but is 3-for-17 from three. Ole Miss transfer Travis Perry has made 11.8% of his shots. Every Dayton giveaway is a possession a weak Cincinnati half-court offense doesn't have to build from scratch.
Derkack against the shot blockers
Dayton's best answer is a freshman. Aiden Derkack averages 22.0 points and 10.3 rebounds and has posted three straight double-doubles, including 25 and 10 in the 99-89 loss to Siena. He is shooting 66.7% from the floor, and the Flyers as a team make 62.6% of their twos, 37th nationally.
Cincinnati protects the rim well: its block rate (blocks per opponent two-point attempt) ranks 17th. But the Bearcats remain without Jayden Hastings, who was still sidelined by a left shoulder injury as of Nov. 13, so Amani Lyles and the rest of the frontcourt rotation take on more. Dayton also has 7-foot-1 Amaël L'Etang, a preseason all-conference first-teamer averaging 15.0 points.
The free-throw line could swing this. Dayton has fouled constantly, with an opponent free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) of 49.4%, 335th. Cincinnati rarely gets there, ranking 283rd in free throw rate. If the Bearcats attack instead of settling, Dayton's fouling becomes a real problem.
Cincinnati's long-range problem
The Bearcats' offense is the reason this spread isn't larger. They take 47.3% of their shots from three, 64th most in the country, and make just 29.1% of them, 280th. Their adjusted offensive efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) ranks 251st.
Dayton's defense gives up plenty of threes, so the looks will be there. Tylen Riley showed the ceiling against Minnesota, hitting 6 of 9 threes for 25 points, but Cincinnati still lost 63-61 as a favorite. Myles Colvin scored 28 against Green Bay and then 5 against Minnesota. That volatility is the game's biggest unknown.
Strangers in a hostile gym
Cincinnati returns 0.2% of last season's minutes. Grant Darbyshire is the lone holdover on a roster with 14 newcomers, and all three games so far came at home. UD Arena is a different test.
Dayton isn't the team picked third in the Atlantic 10 yet. It lost in overtime to Northern Illinois and then to Siena, both at home, and its adjusted defense ranks 314th. One subplot: Jalen Haynes, a transfer from Cincinnati recovering from knee surgery, may have dressed for the first time against Northern Illinois, but that hasn't been confirmed. The Bearcats have won the last two meetings, including 74-62 last November.
Where the number sits
Cincinnati is a 6.5-point road favorite with a total of 147.5, and neither number has moved since our feed first recorded the game. The over/under histories pull in opposite directions: every Cincinnati game has gone under, and every Dayton game has gone over. Cincinnati plays slowly, 270th in pace, while Dayton allows 79.3 points per game, 291st. Which team imposes its shape will decide the total as much as the side.
Cincinnati Bearcats vs Dayton Flyers line movement and odds
| Book | Bearcats ML | Flyers ML | Bearcats spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -250 | +200 | -5.5 (-115) | o146.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | -265 | +205 | -5.5 (-113) | o147.5 (-107) |
| DraftKings | -270 | +220 | -5.5 (-115) | o146.5 (-115) |
| ESPN BET | -275 | +225 | -5.5 (-115) | o146.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | -275 | +220 | -6.5 (-105) | o146.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | -260 | +210 | -6.5 (-105) | o146.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | -260 | +210 | -5.5 (-110) | o146.5 (-115) |
| Caesars | -267 | +215 | -6 (-110) | o147 (-110) |
Where the money is on Cincinnati Bearcats vs Dayton Flyers
On the Kalshi moneyline: Cincinnati Bearcats: 47% of bets, 64% of the money; Dayton Flyers: 53% of bets, 36% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Cincinnati Bearcats -6.5: 51% of bets, 18% of the money; Dayton Flyers +6.5: 49% of bets, 82% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 146.5: 44% of bets, 97% of the money; Under 146.5: 56% of bets, 3% of the money.
Cincinnati Bearcats vs Dayton Flyers stats (this season)
| Stat | Cincinnati Bearcats | Dayton Flyers |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Adjusted offensive efficiency | 104.5 (251st of 364) | 104.3 (254th of 364) |
| Adjusted defensive efficiency | 100.6 (29th of 364) | 111.1 (314th of 364) |
| Adjusted net efficiency | 3.9 (107th of 364) | -6.8 (303rd of 364) |
| Pace | 67.8 (271st of 364) | 72.0 (134th of 364) |
| Effective FG% | 50.8% (219th of 364) | 55.6% (102nd of 364) |
| Opponent effective FG% | 46.2% (124th of 364) | 47.2% (156th of 364) |
| Turnover rate | 16.7% (134th of 364) | 19.0% (246th of 364) |
| Offensive rebound % | 34.6% (169th of 364) | 33.3% (193rd of 364) |
| 3-point % | 29.1% (280th of 364) | 30.1% (263rd of 364) |
| Free throw rate | 28.6% (283rd of 364) | 41.1% (97th of 364) |
Key players
- Tylen Riley (Cincinnati): Leads the Bearcats with a 28% usage rate and is shooting 46.2% from three, highlighted by 25 points against Minnesota.
- MJ Collins Jr. (Cincinnati): Averages 2.3 steals, central to Cincinnati's turnover pressure, though he went 0-for-4 from three against Minnesota.
- Myles Colvin (Cincinnati): Averages 12.0 points and 6.0 rebounds with swings from 28 points against Green Bay to 5 against Minnesota.
- Aiden Derkack (Dayton): Averages 22.0 points and 10.3 rebounds and has a double-double in all three games.
- Amaël L'Etang (Dayton): The preseason all-conference pick averages 15.0 points and 7.0 rebounds on 65.2% shooting.
- Tristian Ford (Dayton): Has made 61.5% of his threes, including a perfect 8-for-8 night with 21 points against Siena.
- Landen Joseph (Dayton): Carries a 25.1% usage rate but is shooting 17.6% from three.
Numbers that matter
| Cincinnati forced turnover rate | 27.6% | Ranks 13th nationally, against a Dayton offense that ranks 246th in turnover rate. |
|---|---|---|
| Dayton opponent free throw rate | 49.4% | Ranks 335th; Cincinnati ranks 283rd in getting to the line, so something gives at the stripe. |
| Cincinnati 3-point % | 29.1% | Ranks 280th on a team that takes nearly half its shots from deep. |
| Dayton adjusted defense rank | 314th | Two straight home losses to Northern Illinois and Siena have sunk the Flyers' defensive profile. |
| Spread | -6.5 | Cincinnati's number as a road favorite, unchanged since our feed first recorded it. |
Cincinnati Bearcats vs Dayton Flyers: quick answers
What was the final score of Cincinnati Bearcats vs Dayton Flyers?
Cincinnati Bearcats 95, Dayton Flyers 72 (final). Cincinnati Bearcats covered the closing spread (Cincinnati Bearcats -6.5). The game went over the closing total of 146.5.
Who is favored in Cincinnati Bearcats vs Dayton Flyers?
Cincinnati is favored by 6 points (Cincinnati -6).
What is the over/under for Cincinnati Bearcats vs Dayton Flyers?
The total is 146.5 points.
When is Cincinnati Bearcats vs Dayton Flyers?
Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 7:30 PM ET.
Where is Cincinnati Bearcats vs Dayton Flyers played?
UD Arena, Dayton, OH.
Has the line moved for Cincinnati Bearcats vs Dayton Flyers?
Yes: Cincinnati Bearcats opened -7.5 and is now -5.5, and the total moved from 147.5 to 146.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Cincinnati Bearcats vs Dayton Flyers?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Cincinnati Bearcats: 47% of bets, 64% of the money; Dayton Flyers: 53% of bets, 36% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Cincinnati Bearcats -6.5: 51% of bets, 18% of the money; Dayton Flyers +6.5: 49% of bets, 82% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 146.5: 44% of bets, 97% of the money; Under 146.5: 56% of bets, 3% of the money.