UL Monroe Warhawks vs Grand Canyon Antelopes prediction: Grand Canyon's paint-first attack greets a worn-down, rebuilt UL Monroe
The Lopes score inside at an elite rate, and ULM arrives on the second night of a back-to-back with an interior defense that has not stopped anyone.
Grand Canyon Antelopes covered the closing spread (UL Monroe Warhawks +31.5). The game went under the closing total of 163.5.
| Spread | Grand Canyon -31.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 163.5 |
- Grand Canyon should push the pace and attack the paint against a ULM team playing for the second straight night after a 30-point loss.
- Grand Canyon's 65.0% two-point shooting meets a ULM defense allowing 56.7% inside the arc, 305th nationally.
- Grand Canyon is a 33-point favorite, up from 31.5. ULM covered as a 31.25-point underdog at Arizona State on Friday.
The paint decides it
Grand Canyon has scored at least 99 points in each of its three home wins, and most of that damage comes inside the arc. UL Monroe arrives in Phoenix a night after a 92-62 loss at Arizona State, with a roster built almost from scratch. The Lopes should win comfortably. The open question is whether they keep pressing long enough to clear a huge number.
The Lopes make 65.0% of their two-point shots, 19th of 364 Division I teams. ULM allows 56.7% inside the arc, which ranks 305th. ULM opponents also take half their shots from three, the 27th-highest share in the country. That matters less than usual here: Grand Canyon has made just 31.4% of its threes (222nd), so the Lopes' cleanest path runs straight at the rim, not around the perimeter.
Grand Canyon also lives at the line, with a free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) of 47.1%, 55th nationally. The catch is the finish. The Lopes make only 66.0% of their free throws, and that leaves points on the table in a game where margin matters.
Turnovers against second chances
ULM gives the ball away on 20.8% of its possessions, 304th in the country. Grand Canyon forces turnovers on 21.6% of opponent trips, and Dylan Darling averages 2.3 steals a game. Every giveaway against a team that runs this hard tends to become a layup going the other way.
The Warhawks' counterpunch is the offensive glass. They rebound 38.5% of their own misses, 80th nationally, and Lance Carr pulled down 14 rebounds in the double-overtime loss at TCU. Grand Canyon has been solid on the defensive boards at 75.0% (72nd), so ULM's extra chances will be hard to come by.
Tempo, fatigue and the first half
Grand Canyon plays at 78.8 possessions per 40 minutes, 15th-fastest in the country, a sharp break from last season's slower team. The Lopes average 47.0 first-half points, 32nd nationally, and they tend to settle the game early.
That is a bad fit for a tired opponent. ULM played two overtimes at TCU on Tuesday, where Dayjaun Anderson logged 47 minutes. It then lost at Arizona State on Friday after trailing 47-22 at halftime, and now plays again Saturday. Legs on the second night of a back-to-back could matter more than any matchup.
A program starting over
Ryan Cross took over at ULM in March after going 145-62 at UAB, and he brought guards Anderson and Quaran McPherson with him. Players back from last season's roster account for just 0.1% of its minutes, so last season's 4-28 team says little about this one.
McPherson has been the most efficient piece, making 47.6% of his threes. Anderson carries the heaviest load at 27.7% usage, but his shot has been streaky, including a 1-for-9 night against Texas A&M.
Grand Canyon added 11 newcomers but kept Jaden Henley, who leads the team at 17.7 points a game. Makaih Williams, a preseason All-Mountain West pick, returned from a foot injury on Nov. 7 and scored 18. Amarion Dickerson has been the bench weapon, shooting 66.7% from the field.
Where the market sits
The spread has moved toward Grand Canyon, from 31.5 when our feed first saw the game to 33, and the total has ticked up to 165.5. ULM has been a stubborn big underdog. It covered as a 34.25-point underdog at TCU and again at Arizona State, and all three of its lined games went over.
Grand Canyon is 1-2 against the spread, covering only against Cal Poly. One factor bears on both the spread and the total: the Lopes send opponents to the line at a rate that ranks 353rd. Free throws stop the clock and keep a trailing team's scoring alive late.
UL Monroe Warhawks vs Grand Canyon Antelopes line movement and odds
| Book | Warhawks ML | Antelopes ML | Warhawks spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +3300 | -10000 | +31.5 (-105) | o163.5 (-115) |
| BetRivers | — | — | +31.5 (-118) | o163.5 (-112) |
| DraftKings | — | — | +31.5 (-108) | o163.5 (-115) |
| ESPN BET | — | — | +31.5 (-110) | o163.5 (-115) |
| Fanatics | +6000 | -20000 | +31.5 (-105) | o163.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | — | — | +31.5 (-110) | o163.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | — | — | +31.5 (-115) | o163.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | — | — | +31.5 (-110) | o163.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on UL Monroe Warhawks vs Grand Canyon Antelopes
On the Kalshi moneyline: UL Monroe Warhawks: 91% of bets, 13% of the money; Grand Canyon Antelopes: 9% of bets, 87% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Grand Canyon Antelopes -31.5: 48% of bets, 77% of the money; UL Monroe Warhawks +31.5: 52% of bets, 23% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 164.5: 58% of bets, 39% of the money; Under 164.5: 42% of bets, 62% of the money.
UL Monroe Warhawks vs Grand Canyon Antelopes stats (this season)
| Stat | UL Monroe Warhawks | Grand Canyon Antelopes |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-3 | 3-0 |
| Adjusted offensive efficiency | 105.9 (213th of 364) | 111.2 (63rd of 364) |
| Adjusted defensive efficiency | 109.5 (266th of 364) | 106.6 (168th of 364) |
| Adjusted net efficiency | -3.6 (245th of 364) | 4.7 (91st of 364) |
| Pace | 73.0 (98th of 364) | 78.8 (15th of 364) |
| Effective FG% | 49.1% (258th of 364) | 57.5% (65th of 364) |
| Opponent effective FG% | 52.0% (268th of 364) | 48.3% (185th of 364) |
| Turnover rate | 20.8% (304th of 364) | 14.3% (58th of 364) |
| Offensive rebound % | 38.5% (82nd of 364) | 36.9% (115th of 364) |
| 3-point % | 34.3% (158th of 364) | 31.4% (222nd of 364) |
| Free throw rate | 35.6% (180th of 364) | 47.1% (55th of 364) |
Key players
- Dayjaun Anderson (UL Monroe): Averages 16.8 points and 7.4 rebounds with a team-high 27.7% usage, but is shooting 30.4% from three.
- Quaran McPherson (UL Monroe): Averages 16.8 points and has made 47.6% of his threes, the Warhawks' best perimeter threat.
- Lance Carr (UL Monroe): Averages 7.6 rebounds and posted 13 points and 14 boards in the double-overtime loss at TCU.
- Jaden Henley (Grand Canyon): Leads the Lopes at 17.7 points per game on a team-high 29.4% usage.
- Amarion Dickerson (Grand Canyon): Shoots 66.7% from the field with a 146.6 offensive rating and 2.3 blocks a game off the bench.
- Makaih Williams (Grand Canyon): Scored 18 points on 6-of-12 shooting in his return from a foot injury against Bethune-Cookman.
- Tre Holloman (Grand Canyon): The NC State transfer averages 5.7 assists and played a team-high 25 minutes off the bench against Cal Poly.
Numbers that matter
| GCU two-point % | 65.0% | 19th nationally, and it targets ULM's weakest area. |
|---|---|---|
| ULM opponent two-point % | 56.7% | 305th of 364, which leaves the rim open to the Lopes. |
| ULM turnover rate | 20.8% | 304th nationally, against a Grand Canyon defense that forces turnovers on 21.6% of possessions. |
| GCU pace | 78.8 | 15th-fastest in the country, which pushes the possession count up for both the spread and the total. |
| Spread | -33 | Moved toward Grand Canyon from -31.5 when our feed first recorded the game. |
UL Monroe Warhawks vs Grand Canyon Antelopes: quick answers
What was the final score of UL Monroe Warhawks vs Grand Canyon Antelopes?
UL Monroe Warhawks 52, Grand Canyon Antelopes 88 (final). Grand Canyon Antelopes covered the closing spread (UL Monroe Warhawks +31.5). The game went under the closing total of 163.5.
Who is favored in UL Monroe Warhawks vs Grand Canyon Antelopes?
Grand Canyon is favored by 31.5 points (Grand Canyon -31.5).
What is the over/under for UL Monroe Warhawks vs Grand Canyon Antelopes?
The total is 163.5 points.
When is UL Monroe Warhawks vs Grand Canyon Antelopes?
Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET.
Where is UL Monroe Warhawks vs Grand Canyon Antelopes played?
Global Credit Union Arena, Phoenix, AZ.
Has the line moved for UL Monroe Warhawks vs Grand Canyon Antelopes?
No: UL Monroe Warhawks has stayed at +31.5, and the total moved from 164.5 to 163.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on UL Monroe Warhawks vs Grand Canyon Antelopes?
On the Kalshi moneyline: UL Monroe Warhawks: 91% of bets, 13% of the money; Grand Canyon Antelopes: 9% of bets, 87% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Grand Canyon Antelopes -31.5: 48% of bets, 77% of the money; UL Monroe Warhawks +31.5: 52% of bets, 23% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 164.5: 58% of bets, 39% of the money; Under 164.5: 42% of bets, 62% of the money.