Binghamton Bearcats vs Duquesne Dukes prediction: Binghamton lives inside, right where Duquesne's defense is strongest
The Dukes are 15.5-point favorites without Tarence Guinyard, and Binghamton's two-point-heavy attack runs straight into the best thing Duquesne does.
Binghamton Bearcats covered the closing spread (Binghamton Bearcats +17.5). The game went under the closing total of 140.5.
| Spread | Duquesne -17.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 140.5 |
- Expect a slow, physical game. Binghamton grinds toward the rim, Duquesne crashes the glass, and the two rank 340th and 322nd in pace.
- Demetrius Lilley's 15.5 rebounds a game against a Duquesne offense that grabs 40.9% of its own misses, 42nd nationally.
- Duquesne is now -17.5, up from -15.5 when our feed first saw it, and the Dukes are 0-2 against the spread this season.
A paint-first offense hits a wall
Duquesne is 3-0 and a two-touchdown favorite. Binghamton arrives on a three-game win streak with a plan that plays straight into the Dukes' hands. The Bearcats barely shoot threes: only 33.3% of their field-goal attempts come from deep, 319th nationally.
That leaves them living on two-point shots, the exact look Duquesne takes away. Opponents have made just 38.9% of their twos against the Dukes, which ranks 27th in Division I.
The opening is beyond the arc. Duquesne's opponents have hit 45.1% of their threes, 362nd nationally. Some of that is luck that will fade, but it also shows how much space the Dukes give up on the perimeter. Dylan Godfrey and Jake Blackburn are Binghamton's best options to punish it. Whether sixth-year coach Levell Sanders turns them loose, or keeps feeding the ball into a crowded paint, may decide how close this stays.
The free-throw line probably won't bail out an inside-heavy plan. Duquesne ranks 16th in opponent free throw rate (free throw attempts per field-goal attempt), allowing just 22.3%.
Lilley, the glass and Quigley's handle
Demetrius Lilley is the most important player on the floor for the underdog. The forward averages 15.5 rebounds, and Binghamton will need every one of them. Duquesne rebounds 40.9% of its own misses (offensive rebound rate), 42nd in the country, and that second-chance volume is how the Dukes have made up for poor shooting.
Ball pressure tilts toward Duquesne as well. The Dukes force turnovers on 23.2% of opponent possessions, 65th nationally. Binghamton runs nearly everything through Jeremiah Quigley, whose 32.5% usage rate means the ball is in his hands at the end of a huge share of possessions. Quigley is a willing passer and a confident scorer, but his shooting has been streaky. Northwestern held him to nine points before he fouled out of an 86-60 loss.
Arness Lawson, who averages 2.3 steals, is the Duquesne guard most likely to make Quigley's night uncomfortable.
A rebuilt Duquesne, still without Guinyard
Third-year coach Dru Joyce III brought back just 28.8% of last season's minutes, and the biggest returning piece still isn't available. Tarence Guinyard, a first-team All-A10 guard who averaged 16.6 points last season, won a court ruling for a fifth year, but the appeal is ongoing and he hasn't played. He sat out the Nov. 10 win over Washington State, and Duquesne hasn't said whether anything changes tonight.
Transfers have carried the Dukes so far. Queens transfer Yoav Berman scores 15.3 points a game, has hit 46.2% of his threes and made the late go-ahead basket in the opener. Creighton transfer Kerem Konan is the frontcourt hub, and Oregon transfer Ege Demir has been efficient around the rim. Josh Smith, a West Georgia transfer, scored 13 off the bench against Washington State.
The weak spot is shooting. As a team, the Dukes make 26.4% of their threes, 331st nationally, which limits how quickly they can pull away from anyone.
Big number, thin résumé
Big number, thin résumé Duquesne sits at -17.5 with a total of 140.5, and both numbers have moved since our feed first recorded the game: the line has moved from -15.5 to -17.5, and the total from 145.5 to 140.5. The Dukes have won every game in this season-opening home stretch, but they haven't beaten the number. They failed to cover against Purdue Fort Wayne in a 78-71 win and again against Washington State in a 72-71 escape.
Adjusted efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) is less impressed with Duquesne than the line is. It rates Binghamton 235th in adjusted net efficiency and the Dukes 300th. That figure doesn't flatter Binghamton either: its three wins came against Saint Peter's, Rider and a non-Division I opponent. Last season's 8-23 record says little about this group, since only 36.6% of those minutes are back.
Tempo points toward a modest score, and the market has dropped the total to 140.5. Binghamton ranks 340th in pace and Duquesne 322nd. Both of Duquesne's lined games stayed under the closing total, and two of Binghamton's three did too.
Binghamton Bearcats vs Duquesne Dukes line movement and odds
| Book | Bearcats ML | Dukes ML | Bearcats spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1050 | -3000 | +18.5 (-125) | o140.5 (-115) |
| BetRivers | +1150 | -3335 | +17.5 (-108) | o141.5 (-106) |
| DraftKings | +1300 | -2800 | +18.5 (-115) | o140.5 (-110) |
| ESPN BET | +1500 | -5000 | +18.5 (-110) | o140.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | +1500 | -3000 | +18 (-110) | o140.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +1400 | -4000 | +18.5 (-118) | o140.5 (-115) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1200 | -3000 | +17.5 (-105) | o140.5 (-115) |
| Caesars | +1350 | -3500 | +18 (-110) | o140.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on Binghamton Bearcats vs Duquesne Dukes
On the Kalshi moneyline: Binghamton Bearcats: 74% of bets, 26% of the money; Duquesne Dukes: 26% of bets, 74% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Duquesne Dukes -16.5: 54% of bets, 22% of the money; Binghamton Bearcats +16.5: 46% of bets, 78% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 141.5: 74% of bets, 32% of the money; Under 141.5: 26% of bets, 68% of the money.
Binghamton Bearcats vs Duquesne Dukes stats (this season)
| Stat | Binghamton Bearcats | Duquesne Dukes |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-1 | 3-0 |
| Adjusted offensive efficiency | 107.4 (163rd of 364) | 104.0 (262nd of 364) |
| Adjusted defensive efficiency | 110.4 (298th of 364) | 110.8 (307th of 364) |
| Adjusted net efficiency | -3.0 (235th of 364) | -6.7 (300th of 364) |
| Pace | 64.1 (342nd of 364) | 66.0 (323rd of 364) |
| Effective FG% | 50.7% (221st of 364) | 53.2% (156th of 364) |
| Opponent effective FG% | 48.9% (195th of 364) | 51.2% (256th of 364) |
| Turnover rate | 17.2% (160th of 364) | 20.7% (300th of 364) |
| Offensive rebound % | 31.0% (244th of 364) | 40.9% (41st of 364) |
| 3-point % | 34.7% (142nd of 364) | 26.4% (331st of 364) |
| Free throw rate | 38.4% (137th of 364) | 48.1% (50th of 364) |
Key players
- Jeremiah Quigley (Binghamton): Quigley averages 17.2 points and 6.0 assists with a 32.5% usage rate, so nearly every Bearcat possession runs through him.
- Demetrius Lilley (Binghamton): Lilley is pulling down 15.5 rebounds a game, including 16 against Rider, and is Binghamton's answer to Duquesne's offensive glass.
- Dylan Godfrey (Binghamton): The UC Riverside transfer averages 11.0 points and has shot 38.9% from three, a weapon against a defense that has struggled at the arc.
- Yoav Berman (Duquesne): Berman leads the Dukes at 15.3 points per game and has hit 46.2% of his threes since arriving from Queens.
- Kerem Konan (Duquesne): The Creighton transfer averages 13.3 points and 7.3 rebounds, and he had nine assists against Washington State.
- Arness Lawson (Duquesne): Lawson has stepped into the guard rotation with Guinyard out and is averaging 2.3 steals.
Numbers that matter
| Duquesne opponent 2-point % | 38.9% | Ranks 27th nationally, and it targets the two-point shots Binghamton relies on. |
|---|---|---|
| Duquesne opponent 3-point % | 45.1% | Ranks 362nd, the clearest opening for a Binghamton team that rarely shoots from deep. |
| Binghamton 3-point attempt rate | 33.3% | Ranks 319th in share of shots taken from three, a style that funnels the Bearcats into Duquesne's strength. |
| Duquesne offensive rebound % | 40.9% | Ranks 42nd and sets up the battle with Demetrius Lilley on the defensive glass. |
| Spread | -15.5 | Duquesne's line hasn't moved since our feed first recorded it, and the Dukes are 0-2 against the spread. |
Binghamton Bearcats vs Duquesne Dukes: quick answers
What was the final score of Binghamton Bearcats vs Duquesne Dukes?
Binghamton Bearcats 58, Duquesne Dukes 71 (final). Binghamton Bearcats covered the closing spread (Binghamton Bearcats +17.5). The game went under the closing total of 140.5.
Who is favored in Binghamton Bearcats vs Duquesne Dukes?
Duquesne is favored by 17.5 points (Duquesne -17.5).
What is the over/under for Binghamton Bearcats vs Duquesne Dukes?
The total is 140.5 points.
When is Binghamton Bearcats vs Duquesne Dukes?
Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 7:30 PM ET.
Where is Binghamton Bearcats vs Duquesne Dukes played?
UPMC Cooper Fieldhouse, Pittsburgh, PA.
Has the line moved for Binghamton Bearcats vs Duquesne Dukes?
Yes: Binghamton Bearcats opened +14 and is now +18.5, and the total moved from 145 to 140.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Binghamton Bearcats vs Duquesne Dukes?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Binghamton Bearcats: 74% of bets, 26% of the money; Duquesne Dukes: 26% of bets, 74% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Duquesne Dukes -16.5: 54% of bets, 22% of the money; Binghamton Bearcats +16.5: 46% of bets, 78% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 141.5: 74% of bets, 32% of the money; Under 141.5: 26% of bets, 68% of the money.