New Mexico Lobos vs Santa Clara Broncos prediction: Jake Hall's scoring tear meets its first real test at Leavey
New Mexico's star has carried a rebuilt roster through three soft home games, and a fast, battle-tested Santa Clara team is a different kind of exam.
| Spread | New Mexico -1.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 165.5 |
- Expect Santa Clara to push the pace while New Mexico leans on Jake Hall's volume and the nation's best ball security.
- Watch Hall against a Broncos defense that fouls often: he's averaging 30.7 points and shooting 88.6% at the line.
- New Mexico is a 1.5-point road favorite. The total climbed from 164.75 to 167, and Santa Clara plays at the 35th-fastest pace.
Hall carries a rebuilt Lobos team
Two preseason conference favorites meet tonight in a nonconference game with real weight. New Mexico was picked to win the Mountain West for the first time since 2013-14. Santa Clara was voted the WCC favorite for the first time since 1995-96. The Lobos are making their first trip to the Leavey Center to close a home-and-home series. Last season they won the first leg 98-71 in The Pit.
New Mexico brought back only 32.5% of last season's minutes, and the offense now runs through the player who stayed. Jake Hall is averaging 30.7 points through three games. He finished 40.8% of New Mexico's possessions while on the floor, up from a 21.9% usage rate last season. He scored 39 against Little Rock. Uriah Tenette and William & Mary transfer Tunde Vahlberg Fasasi are both shooting above 40% from three, so Hall has help on the perimeter.
The caveat is the competition. All three Lobo wins came at home against teams ranked 275th or worse in adjusted net efficiency. Even after adjusting for that weak schedule, New Mexico's offense ranks 22nd nationally. Adjusted efficiency is points per 100 possessions, corrected for the quality of opponents. Forward Rytis Petraitis returned from an ankle sprain against Little Rock, and the team lists him as a key reserve. Santa Clara has reported no injuries.
Santa Clara's tougher road to 4-0
The Broncos have played a harder schedule. They beat Towson, ranked 95th, and Sacramento State, ranked 106th, then won 76-71 at North Texas. The results haven't been dominant, though. Santa Clara won by only six against Sacramento State as a 20-point favorite, and its adjusted offense ranks 137th.
Kansas State transfer David Castillo has been the spark off the bench, making 12 of his 24 threes. Preseason All-WCC guard Sash Gavalyugov is still searching for his shot at 27.6% from deep. Herb Sendek, 191-129 in his 11th season at Santa Clara, needs Gavalyugov to find his touch against a defense that takes away threes.
Lobos give up twos, not threes
New Mexico's defense has a clear pattern. Opponents take 54.9% of their shots from three, seventh-most in the country, and make only 27.0% of them. Inside the arc, the Lobos have struggled: opponents shoot 53.4% on twos, which ranks 256th.
That points Santa Clara toward forward Chris Tadjo, who is shooting 56.7% without attempting a three. The Broncos take plenty of threes themselves, and their poor shooting from Gavalyugov makes the long ball a risky plan here. Drives and post touches against the Lobos are the more promising route.
Ball security and the whistle
New Mexico turns the ball over on 10.4% of possessions, the lowest rate in Division I. Santa Clara forces turnovers at an average rate (134th), so the Broncos are unlikely to win this game with steals.
Santa Clara's bigger weakness is fouling. Opponents attempt free throws at a 43.9% rate against the Broncos (free throws attempted per field goal attempt), which ranks 294th. That suits a downhill scorer like Hall. Santa Clara rarely gets to the line itself but makes 81.0% when it does, 15th nationally, which matters if the game is close late.
Tempo and the number
Santa Clara plays at 77 possessions per 40 minutes, 35th-fastest in the country. New Mexico sits near the middle of the pace rankings at 182nd. If the Broncos dictate the tempo, both offenses get more chances to score.
The betting market already expects a fast game. The total opened at 164.75 in our feed and now sits at 167. New Mexico has gone over the total in all three games, while Santa Clara is 2-2. The spread hasn't moved: New Mexico is a 1.5-point favorite, -125 on the moneyline, and has covered in all three games so far. Those covers came against overmatched home opponents, so they say little about tonight.
New Mexico Lobos vs Santa Clara Broncos line movement and odds
| Book | Lobos ML | Broncos ML | Lobos spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -135 | +105 | -1.5 (-118) | o165.5 (-118) |
| BetRivers | -122 | -103 | -1.5 (-105) | o166.5 (-109) |
| DraftKings | -130 | +110 | -1.5 (-112) | o165.5 (-112) |
| ESPN BET | -130 | +110 | -1.5 (-115) | o165.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | -130 | +110 | -1.5 (-110) | o165.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | -130 | +108 | -2.5 (-102) | o165.5 (-112) |
| Hard Rock Bet | -120 | +100 | -1.5 (-105) | o166.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | -125 | +105 | -1.5 (-110) | o166 (-110) |
Where the money is on New Mexico Lobos vs Santa Clara Broncos
On the Kalshi moneyline: New Mexico Lobos: 56% of bets, 79% of the money; Santa Clara Broncos: 44% of bets, 22% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: New Mexico Lobos -2.5: 48% of bets, 29% of the money; Santa Clara Broncos +2.5: 52% of bets, 71% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 164.5: 72% of bets, 89% of the money; Under 164.5: 28% of bets, 12% of the money.
New Mexico Lobos vs Santa Clara Broncos stats (this season)
| Stat | New Mexico Lobos | Santa Clara Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-0 | 4-0 |
| Adjusted offensive efficiency | 113.5 (22nd of 364) | 108.6 (137th of 364) |
| Adjusted defensive efficiency | 103.0 (74th of 364) | 102.6 (66th of 364) |
| Adjusted net efficiency | 10.5 (30th of 364) | 6.0 (66th of 364) |
| Pace | 70.5 (180th of 364) | 77.0 (35th of 364) |
| Effective FG% | 60.1% (31st of 364) | 52.2% (181st of 364) |
| Opponent effective FG% | 46.3% (130th of 364) | 45.1% (96th of 364) |
| Turnover rate | 10.4% (1st of 364) | 17.9% (188th of 364) |
| Offensive rebound % | 34.9% (163rd of 364) | 32.1% (224th of 364) |
| 3-point % | 40.0% (39th of 364) | 35.2% (126th of 364) |
| Free throw rate | 39.9% (118th of 364) | 29.6% (270th of 364) |
Key players
- Jake Hall (New Mexico): He is averaging 30.7 points on a 40.8% usage rate and shooting 88.6% from the line.
- Uriah Tenette (New Mexico): He is averaging 18.0 points and shooting 44.4% from three, up from 32.4% last season.
- Tunde Vahlberg Fasasi (New Mexico): He has made 9 of 22 threes and averages 12.0 points as the Lobos' third perimeter option.
- Chris Howell (New Mexico): Howell averages 6.0 assists and 3.3 steals off the bench despite scoring only 3.3 points.
- David Castillo (Santa Clara): He is making 50% of his threes and averaging 13.2 points as a reserve.
- Sash Gavalyugov (Santa Clara): He carries a 26.7% usage rate but is shooting 27.6% from three and 32% overall.
- Chris Tadjo (Santa Clara): He averages 11.2 points, 7.0 rebounds and 1.5 blocks while shooting 56.7%.
- Jake Ensminger (Santa Clara): He is a low-usage glue player who averages 5.8 rebounds and 3.2 assists.
Numbers that matter
| New Mexico turnover rate | 10.4% | This ranks first in Division I, which limits Santa Clara's chances to score in transition off steals. |
|---|---|---|
| Opponent 3-point attempt rate vs. New Mexico | 54.9% | Opponents take a lot of threes against the Lobos but make only 27.0%, while scoring more easily inside. |
| Santa Clara opponent free throw rate | 43.9% | This ranks 294th, an opening for Hall to score at the line. |
| Santa Clara pace | 77 | The Broncos rank 35th in tempo, which supports a total that has risen to 167. |
| New Mexico spread | -1.5 | The line hasn't moved since our feed first recorded it, with the road team slightly favored. |
New Mexico Lobos vs Santa Clara Broncos: quick answers
Who is favored in New Mexico Lobos vs Santa Clara Broncos?
New Mexico is favored by 1.5 points (New Mexico -1.5).
What is the over/under for New Mexico Lobos vs Santa Clara Broncos?
The total is 165.5 points.
When is New Mexico Lobos vs Santa Clara Broncos?
Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET.
Where is New Mexico Lobos vs Santa Clara Broncos played?
Leavey Center, Santa Clara, CA.
Has the line moved for New Mexico Lobos vs Santa Clara Broncos?
Yes: New Mexico Lobos opened +2.5 and is now -1.5, and the total is still 165.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on New Mexico Lobos vs Santa Clara Broncos?
On the Kalshi moneyline: New Mexico Lobos: 56% of bets, 79% of the money; Santa Clara Broncos: 44% of bets, 22% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: New Mexico Lobos -2.5: 48% of bets, 29% of the money; Santa Clara Broncos +2.5: 52% of bets, 71% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 164.5: 72% of bets, 89% of the money; Under 164.5: 28% of bets, 12% of the money.