UC Davis Aggies vs Sacramento St Hornets prediction: Sac State's sprint-and-whistle style tests UC Davis in the Causeway Classic
The Hornets play at the second-fastest pace in the country and live at the foul line, and a turnover-prone Davis team must survive both on the road.
UC Davis Aggies covered the closing spread (UC Davis Aggies +3.5). The game went under the closing total of 161.5.
| Spread | Sacramento State -3.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 161.5 |
- Expect a fast, foul-heavy game in which Sacramento State's pace and free-throw volume collide with UC Davis' loose ball handling.
- Brayden Fagbemi against a fast Sac State team: the Davis point guard averages 7.0 assists but his team turns it over at a rate ranked 303rd.
- Sac State is a 3.5-point favorite and the total climbed from 157.25 to 160.5; the Hornets average 84 possessions per 40 minutes.
A dagger changes jerseys
Last November, Marcus Wilson settled the Causeway Classic with a 15-footer in the final seconds. That shot sealed a 77-73 UC Davis win. On Saturday night he lines up for Sacramento State in the 124th meeting of a rivalry that dates to 1948.
The Hornets lead the series 73-50 and have been far tougher at home, winning 41 of the meetings there. Both programs arrive in new leagues, Davis in its first Mountain West season and Sac State in the Big West, so this one is a nonconference game with old-fashioned stakes.
Wilson's homecoming hasn't clicked yet. He carries a heavy share of the offense but owns an offensive rating of 80.4 (points produced per 100 possessions), the worst among the Hornets' regulars. Mike Bibby, in his second season, rebuilt the roster almost from scratch: only 33.0% of last season's minutes returned, so the Hornets' 10-21 finish last season says little about this group.
A pace the Aggies haven't seen
Sacramento State plays at 84 possessions per 40 minutes, second-fastest of 364 Division I teams. UC Davis is no plodder at 73.8, but the Hornets will drag this game into a sprint on their own floor.
That speed cuts both ways. Sac State allows 43.5 first-half points per game, which ranks 341st, so early scoreboards can get crowded. Davis has gone over in both of its lined games. The Hornets' lone lined game, at Santa Clara, stayed under a total in the high 160s. The market has noticed the tempo: the total opened in our feed at 157.25 and now sits at 160.5. Every number here comes from two or three games, so treat these as early signals rather than settled traits.
Living at the foul line
The sharpest edge on the board is the whistle. Sac State's free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) is 67.0%, second in the country. Davis' defense allows a 40.0% rate, which ranks 253rd.
The Aggies also attack: their own free throw rate ranks 28th. But Davis gets little rim protection, with a block rate ranked 357th, and that invites the Hornets to keep driving. Expect long stretches at the line, which also feeds the total.
Turnovers are the swing factor
Davis gives the ball away on 20.8% of its possessions, 303rd nationally. Sac State is not much tidier at 19.6%. The difference is the Aggies' hands: Davis forces turnovers on 22.5% of opponent possessions, 79th, and Fagbemi averages 2.7 steals.
The Hornets can't count on second chances to cover mistakes. Their offensive rebound rate of 18.1% ranks 361st of 364. If Davis wins the turnover battle, Sac State has little to fall back on.
Shooters waiting to wake up
Two of the best shooters on the floor are cold. Connor Sevilla has made 3 of 16 threes for Davis after hitting 40.2% last season. Larry Hughes II, the Hornets' top scorer, is at 30% from deep after shooting 39.5% at Cal State Northridge last season.
The bigger gap is opponent-adjusted efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents). Sac State's adjusted net rating ranks 102nd and Davis' ranks 285th, yet the spread sits at only 3.5.
Availability is unsettled. Veniamin Abosi, Davis' leading scorer and rebounder off the bench, carries an undated knee injury tag listing him as a game-time decision, while another undated listing shows no Davis injuries. His status for Saturday is unclear.
UC Davis Aggies vs Sacramento St Hornets line movement and odds
| Book | Aggies ML | Hornets ML | Aggies spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +135 | -175 | +3.5 (-115) | o161.5 (-115) |
| BetRivers | +133 | -167 | +2.5 (-104) | o161.5 (-115) |
| DraftKings | +142 | -170 | +3.5 (-108) | o161.5 (-112) |
| ESPN BET | +140 | -165 | +3.5 (-110) | o160.5 (-120) |
| Fanatics | +140 | -170 | +3.5 (-110) | o161.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +134 | -162 | +3.5 (-115) | o161.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +135 | -165 | +2.5 (+100) | o161.5 (-115) |
| Caesars | +143 | -170 | +3.5 (-110) | o161.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on UC Davis Aggies vs Sacramento St Hornets
On the Kalshi moneyline: UC Davis Aggies: 46% of bets, 15% of the money; Sacramento St Hornets: 54% of bets, 85% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Sacramento St Hornets -3.5: 58% of bets, 59% of the money; UC Davis Aggies +3.5: 42% of bets, 41% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 160.5: 57% of bets, 91% of the money; Under 160.5: 43% of bets, 9% of the money.
UC Davis Aggies vs Sacramento St Hornets stats (this season)
| Stat | UC Davis Aggies | Sacramento St Hornets |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Adjusted offensive efficiency | 103.1 (286th of 364) | 106.1 (204th of 364) |
| Adjusted defensive efficiency | 108.7 (249th of 364) | 101.9 (55th of 364) |
| Adjusted net efficiency | -5.6 (285th of 364) | 4.2 (102nd of 364) |
| Pace | 73.8 (71st of 364) | 84.0 (2nd of 364) |
| Effective FG% | 47.6% (294th of 364) | 50.9% (215th of 364) |
| Opponent effective FG% | 45.6% (108th of 364) | 46.6% (138th of 364) |
| Turnover rate | 20.8% (303rd of 364) | 19.6% (271st of 364) |
| Offensive rebound % | 29.4% (266th of 364) | 18.1% (361st of 364) |
| 3-point % | 30.4% (256th of 364) | 30.8% (242nd of 364) |
| Free throw rate | 52.1% (28th of 364) | 67.0% (1st of 364) |
Key players
- Brayden Fagbemi (UC Davis): He averages 7.0 assists and posted 21 points with 9 assists against Incarnate Word.
- Veniamin Abosi (UC Davis): The San Francisco transfer leads Davis at 13.3 points and 8.7 rebounds off the bench, though his knee status is unsettled.
- Connor Sevilla (UC Davis): He is 3 of 16 from three this season after shooting 40.2% last season.
- Larry Hughes II (Sacramento State): The Northridge transfer averages 18.0 points and scored 24 in his debut against Jessup.
- Taj Glover (Sacramento State): He set a career high with 19 points at Santa Clara on 8-of-9 shooting.
- Mikey Williams (Sacramento State): He averages 15.5 points and 8.5 rebounds but is shooting 18.2% from three.
Numbers that matter
| Sac State pace | 84 | Possessions per 40 minutes, second-fastest in Division I. |
|---|---|---|
| Sac State free throw rate | 67.0% | Second nationally, against a Davis defense ranked 253rd in free throw rate allowed. |
| UC Davis turnover rate | 20.8% | Ranks 303rd, a weakness against any team that speeds the game up. |
| Sac State offensive rebound % | 18.1% | Ranks 361st of 364, so the Hornets rarely get second chances. |
| Total | 160.5 | Up from 157.25 when our feed first saw the game. |
UC Davis Aggies vs Sacramento St Hornets: quick answers
What was the final score of UC Davis Aggies vs Sacramento St Hornets?
UC Davis Aggies 75, Sacramento St Hornets 56 (final). UC Davis Aggies covered the closing spread (UC Davis Aggies +3.5). The game went under the closing total of 161.5.
Who is favored in UC Davis Aggies vs Sacramento St Hornets?
Sacramento State is favored by 3.5 points (Sacramento State -3.5).
What is the over/under for UC Davis Aggies vs Sacramento St Hornets?
The total is 161.5 points.
When is UC Davis Aggies vs Sacramento St Hornets?
Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET.
Where is UC Davis Aggies vs Sacramento St Hornets played?
The Well, Sacramento, CA.
Has the line moved for UC Davis Aggies vs Sacramento St Hornets?
No: UC Davis Aggies has stayed at +3.5, and the total moved from 157.5 to 161.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on UC Davis Aggies vs Sacramento St Hornets?
On the Kalshi moneyline: UC Davis Aggies: 46% of bets, 15% of the money; Sacramento St Hornets: 54% of bets, 85% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Sacramento St Hornets -3.5: 58% of bets, 59% of the money; UC Davis Aggies +3.5: 42% of bets, 41% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 160.5: 57% of bets, 91% of the money; Under 160.5: 43% of bets, 9% of the money.