Furman Paladins vs Belmont Bruins prediction: Tom House and Furman's hot shooting test a rebuilt Belmont in Nashville
The unbeaten Paladins carry the better numbers into Curb Event Center, but Belmont's perimeter defense and a home line say the Bruins can stall the hottest shooter on the floor.
Belmont Bruins covered the closing spread (Furman Paladins +2.5). The game went under the closing total of 155.5.
| Spread | Belmont -2.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 154.5 |
- Furman's ball security and shooting should carry long stretches; Belmont needs to take care of the ball and hold the arc to stay in it.
- Tom House, shooting 54.5% from three, against a Belmont defense holding opponents to 25.3% from deep.
- Belmont is favored by 3, up from 2.75, though Furman's adjusted net efficiency ranks 54th to Belmont's 147th.
House against a stingy arc
Furman arrives 4-0, picked first in the SoCon coaches' poll, and riding a shooter nobody saw coming. Tom House made 31.5% of his threes last season. Through four games this year he is at 54.5%, scoring 19.5 points a night, including a 30-point game against Northern Iowa built on seven made threes.
The Paladins as a team hit 39.8% from deep, 42nd in Division I, and take nearly half their shots from there. That runs straight into the best thing Belmont does: opponents have made just 25.3% of their threes against the Bruins, 40th nationally. Holy Cross showed the other side of House's game, holding him to 9 points without a made three. If Belmont's guards can chase him off the line, Furman's offense gets much more ordinary.
One caution on the Paladins' raw numbers: a 121-52 rout of Bob Jones props them up. Furman's adjusted offensive efficiency (points scored per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) sits at 111.6, 54th nationally, which is good rather than elite.
Belmont's giveaway problem
The Bruins have turned the ball over on 22.3% of their possessions, 328th in the country. Furman sits at the other end of that list, giving it away on 12.5% of trips, 21st. Belmont's opener against Southern Indiana featured 10 turnovers against four assists in the first half, and Evan Bradds's team has been slow out of the gate all month, scoring 30.7 first-half points a game, 303rd.
The saving grace for Belmont is that Furman rarely punishes sloppiness. The Paladins rank 268th in forcing turnovers, so the Bruins may get away with mistakes that would sink them against a pressing team. Aleksa Ristic is the steadying hand: he posted back-to-back lines of 10 points, 5 rebounds and 7 assists off the bench and ranks among the national leaders in assist-to-turnover ratio.
A fight over the foul line
Furman gets to the line constantly. Its free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) is 46.2%, 61st nationally, a sharp change from a team that rarely drew fouls last season. Belmont has been one of the most disciplined defenses in the country on that front, allowing an opponent free throw rate of 23.1%, 22nd.
If the game stays close late, Belmont's own shooting at the stripe is a worry. The Bruins make 66.0% of their free throws, 274th. Jack Smiley has not missed one yet, so the late-game ball belongs in his hands.
Two rosters starting over
Neither team looks much like last season's version. Belmont returns 38.4% of last season's minutes and a new coach: Bradds, a former Jon Scheyer assistant at Duke, replaced Casey Alexander, who left for Kansas State. Tyler Lundblade went to Tennessee, Sam Orme to Nebraska and Drew Scharnowski to Duke. Last season's Bruins led the country in effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times) at 60.7%; this group sits at 53.1%, 158th. Last season's shooting is little guide to this roster.
Smiley has stepped from sixth man to centerpiece at 21.0 points a game. Isaiah West, who had offseason shoulder surgery, has played this season, including the loss at Lipscomb, where early foul trouble for him and Jabez Jenkins scrambled the rotation.
Furman lost Alex Wilkins to Kentucky and Cooper Bowser to Arkansas, returning 41.3% of its minutes. Charles Johnston and Western Carolina transfer Marcus Kell, both preseason all-SoCon picks, fill the frontcourt.
Where the line sits
Belmont is a 3-point home favorite, nudged up from 2.75 when the line first appeared, with the total at 154.5. The adjusted ratings lean the other way: Furman's net efficiency ranks 54th, Belmont's 147th. The home floor explains part of the gap, but Belmont also failed to cover as a 3.5-point favorite in an 88-75 loss at Lipscomb, its only game against a Division I opponent away from home.
Furman is 2-0-1 against the spread this season and won its last trip to this building, 76-74 in November 2024.
Furman Paladins vs Belmont Bruins line movement and odds
| Book | Paladins ML | Bruins ML | Paladins spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +115 | -150 | +2.5 (-115) | o155.5 (-115) |
| BetRivers | +130 | -162 | +2.5 (-105) | o155.5 (-115) |
| DraftKings | +120 | -142 | +2.5 (-110) | o155.5 (-110) |
| ESPN BET | +120 | -140 | +2.5 (-110) | o155.5 (-115) |
| Fanatics | +120 | -145 | +2.5 (-105) | o155.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +118 | -142 | +2.5 (-110) | o155.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +130 | -160 | +2.5 (-105) | o155.5 (-115) |
| Caesars | +126 | -150 | +2.5 (-110) | o155.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on Furman Paladins vs Belmont Bruins
On the Kalshi moneyline: Furman Paladins: 69% of bets, 66% of the money; Belmont Bruins: 31% of bets, 34% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Belmont Bruins -2.5: 31% of bets, 10% of the money; Furman Paladins +2.5: 69% of bets, 90% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 154.5: 73% of bets, 98% of the money; Under 154.5: 27% of bets, 2% of the money.
Furman Paladins vs Belmont Bruins stats (this season)
| Stat | Furman Paladins | Belmont Bruins |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-0 | 2-1 |
| Adjusted offensive efficiency | 111.6 (54th of 364) | 106.1 (204th of 364) |
| Adjusted defensive efficiency | 104.4 (100th of 364) | 104.6 (106th of 364) |
| Adjusted net efficiency | 7.2 (54th of 364) | 1.5 (147th of 364) |
| Pace | 72.3 (124th of 364) | 70.3 (191st of 364) |
| Effective FG% | 58.4% (55th of 364) | 53.1% (159th of 364) |
| Opponent effective FG% | 43.9% (72nd of 364) | 44.2% (79th of 364) |
| Turnover rate | 12.5% (21st of 364) | 22.3% (328th of 364) |
| Offensive rebound % | 35.5% (150th of 364) | 37.5% (104th of 364) |
| 3-point % | 39.8% (41st of 364) | 30.9% (238th of 364) |
| Free throw rate | 46.2% (61st of 364) | 26.1% (308th of 364) |
Key players
- Tom House (Furman): Averaging 19.5 points on 54.5% three-point shooting after hitting 31.5% from deep last season.
- Charles Johnston (Furman): Posting 12.8 points and 8.8 rebounds with a team-best 149.7 offensive rating.
- Marcus Kell (Furman): Scoring 11.0 points a game, though he is shooting 27.8% from three.
- Abijah Franklin (Furman): Adds 13.2 points and 5.5 rebounds but is shooting 50% at the free throw line.
- Jack Smiley (Belmont): Averaging 21.0 points with a 29.5% usage rate and 44% three-point shooting.
- Aleksa Ristic (Belmont): Leads the Bruins with 4.7 assists a game off the bench.
- Vincent Neugebauer (Belmont): Shooting 75% from the field with a block a game inside.
- Jabez Jenkins (Belmont): Had 14 points and 10 rebounds at Lipscomb despite early foul trouble.
Numbers that matter
| Belmont turnover rate | 22.3% | Ranks 328th nationally, against a Furman offense that gives it away on just 12.5% of trips. |
|---|---|---|
| Belmont opponent 3-point % | 25.3% | 40th in Division I, the clearest obstacle for a Furman team hitting 39.8% from deep. |
| Furman free throw rate | 46.2% | Belmont's defense ranks 22nd in limiting free throws, so one of these trends breaks. |
| Belmont spread | -3 | Moved toward Belmont from 2.75, even though Furman's adjusted net efficiency ranks 54th to Belmont's 147th. |
Furman Paladins vs Belmont Bruins: quick answers
What was the final score of Furman Paladins vs Belmont Bruins?
Furman Paladins 62, Belmont Bruins 72 (final). Belmont Bruins covered the closing spread (Furman Paladins +2.5). The game went under the closing total of 155.5.
Who is favored in Furman Paladins vs Belmont Bruins?
Belmont is favored by 2.5 points (Belmont -2.5).
What is the over/under for Furman Paladins vs Belmont Bruins?
The total is 154.5 points.
When is Furman Paladins vs Belmont Bruins?
Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 8:30 PM ET.
Where is Furman Paladins vs Belmont Bruins played?
Curb Event Center Arena, Nashville, TN.
Has the line moved for Furman Paladins vs Belmont Bruins?
No: Furman Paladins has stayed at +2.5, and the total moved from 154.5 to 155.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Furman Paladins vs Belmont Bruins?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Furman Paladins: 69% of bets, 66% of the money; Belmont Bruins: 31% of bets, 34% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Belmont Bruins -2.5: 31% of bets, 10% of the money; Furman Paladins +2.5: 69% of bets, 90% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 154.5: 73% of bets, 98% of the money; Under 154.5: 27% of bets, 2% of the money.