UT Martin vs IU Indianapolis prediction: UT Martin rebuilds its defense around a dozen newcomers, starting at IU Indy

A good team, mostly new

UT Martin is coming off one of the best seasons in school history, a 22-11 run built on defense. Opponents managed a 44.8% effective field goal percentage against the Skyhawks (a shooting measure that counts threes 1.5 times), 3rd-best of 365 Division I teams. The OVC preseason poll still put UT Martin third, tied with Morehead State and SIUE.

The catch is the roster. The Skyhawks return three players and add a dozen newcomers, ten of them freshmen. Last season's numbers describe a team that mostly isn't here. One known arrival is Davi Remagen, a sophomore guard who transferred from Georgia Tech.

Jeremy Shulman has set the goal plainly. He wants to take UT Martin to the NCAA tournament for the first time in program history. Early November is when the Skyhawks find out whether the defensive system travels with new bodies.

Fast against slow

The tempo gap here is stark. IU Indy played at 75.4 possessions per 40 minutes last season, 3rd-fastest in the country. UT Martin sat at 65, 306th. Pace is a style, not a grade, but in this case it explains a lot about IU Indy's season.

The Jaguars scored plenty, ranking 26th nationally in points per game. They also gave up 88.3 points a game, dead last of 365. Their defense ranked 341st in adjusted efficiency last season (points allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents), so the speed exposed them more than it protected them. A 7-25 finish followed in Ben Howlett's first year after his May 2025 hire from West Liberty.

Where possessions are won

UT Martin's offense lived on second chances last season and died on giveaways. The Skyhawks grabbed 38.6% of their own misses, 4th nationally. They also turned it over on 22.1% of possessions, 360th of 365.

Both habits run straight into IU Indy's profile. The Jaguars rebounded only 65.3% of opponents' misses, 342nd, which invites a team that crashes the glass. But they were also disruptive, forcing turnovers at a 20.6% rate that ranked 29th. UT Martin was taller last season by minutes-weighted height, 78.2 inches to 76.6. If the new Skyhawks keep that size and that rebounding instinct, the glass favors them. If they keep the turnovers, IU Indy's steals can feed its transition game.

The free throw gap

IU Indy fouled at a rate that undermined everything else. Opponents shot free throws at a 46.4% rate (attempts per field goal try), 359th. The Jaguars rarely got there themselves, finishing 365th in free throw rate at 21.1%.

That should matter less than it looks against UT Martin, which made just 67.7% of its free throws last season, 329th. With a new roster, though, nobody knows who takes those shots now.

A new building

This is one of IU Indy's early home dates in James T. Morris Arena, nicknamed "The Jim," and the school has billed it as Bob Lovell Day. Tip is set for 5:00 PM ET on WNDY-TV. The arena's formal dedication comes at the men's game on Nov. 11.

No injury, illness or eligibility news has surfaced for either team as of Oct. 25. That is worth rechecking before tipoff.

What to watch

• Whether UT Martin's newcomers keep the defensive shape that ranked 8th in efficiency last season
• The first-half pace: a fast start favors IU Indy's style
• UT Martin's turnover count against IU Indy's pressure