USC vs Wichita State prediction: Wichita State's offensive glass tests a rebuilt USC in Lake Tahoe

The Shockers live on second chances

USC arrives in Stateline ranked No. 21 in the preseason AP poll, the highest ranking of Eric Musselman's tenure. The team on the other bench rated better than the Trojans by the numbers last season. Wichita State finished 24-12, and its best trait is the one most likely to swing this game: it attacks the offensive glass.

The Shockers grabbed 38.5% of their own misses last season, fifth of 365 Division I teams. That habit covered for a shaky shooting team. Wichita State's effective field goal percentage (a shooting measure where threes count 1.5 times) was 50.0%, 273rd nationally, and it made just 49.4% of its twos, 296th.

USC's defensive rebounding was the soft spot that let opponents extend possessions. The Trojans secured 68.6% of opponent misses last season, 257th. If Paul Mills' team turns its misses into putbacks in the opener's final game, a ranked opponent's talent edge shrinks quickly.

USC's whistle against Wichita's wall

USC's offense was built on contact. Its free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) was 44.1% last season, eighth in the country. That mattered because the Trojans could not shoot from outside: they made 31.4% of their threes, 317th.

Wichita State's defense is the bigger obstacle. The Shockers allowed 100.7 points per 100 possessions last season after adjusting for opponents, 43rd nationally, and held opponents to an effective field goal percentage that ranked 36th. They also sat in the middle on fouling, with an opponent free throw rate that ranked 159th. If USC can't earn a parade to the line, its half-court offense has to show it has improved from last season.

The Trojans do have a rim-protection answer for Wichita's interior scoring. USC blocked 15.3% of opponent two-point tries, seventh in the nation, and Jacob Cofie, who averaged 1.8 blocks, is back.

Two different tempos

USC wanted to run last season, ranking 70th in pace at 70.1 possessions per 40 minutes. Wichita State slowed games down to 65.7, 283rd. The Shockers also ranked 358th in assist rate last season, so their offense leaned less on ball movement than almost anyone's.

A slower game favors the team that wins the glass and makes fewer mistakes. Wichita State's turnover rate ranked 94th last season, against USC's 230th. One caution for the Shockers: they struggled with turnovers in their scrimmage against Murray State.

Who's back and who's hurt

USC returns 68.1% of last season's minutes but just 58.6% of its points. Chad Baker-Mazara (18.5 points per game) and Ezra Ausar (14.8) are gone, and backup center Gabe Dynes is now at Louisville. Last season's team numbers are a loose guide for a roster that added seven transfers. Rodney Rice, KJ Lewis, Cofie and Jalen Cox are expected to carry the load, and no current injury report has surfaced for the Trojans.

Wichita State brings back 10 players, including Will Berg, Dillon Battie and TJ Williams, and adds transfers Jordan Frison and Jahari Long. Mills says he has eight players capable of starting. That depth matters because the frontcourt is banged up. Center Noah Hill had returned to practice from a broken toe as of Oct. 23, but his availability was still uncertain. An undated report said the toe hadn't healed as expected, so his status is unsettled. Forward Jaret Valencia was still working back from an Achilles injury as of Oct. 23. Kenyon Giles, granted a fifth year, was not expected to play because of an ankle injury as of early October.

USC won three of the first four meetings in the series, the last coming in 2015.