Green Bay vs St. Thomas-Minnesota prediction: St. Thomas brings the nation's best two-point offense back at Green Bay

The Tommies' paint problem for Green Bay

St. Thomas has turned this series into a habit. After Green Bay won 64-51 in November 2023, the Tommies took the next two: 90-76 at Green Bay in 2024, then 80-61 in Saint Paul last November. The rematch comes back to Lee & Penny Anderson Arena on Sunday, Nov. 8, at 2 p.m. ET.

The engine was a shot profile few teams anywhere matched. Last season St. Thomas made 62.8% of its two-pointers, 1st of 365 in Division I, and posted an effective field goal percentage (which counts threes 1.5 times) of 58.8%, 7th nationally. That came while taking a heavy diet of threes, with a 3-point attempt rate ranked 52nd.

Green Bay's defense was built to lose that matchup. The Phoenix finished last season 303rd in adjusted defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents), and opponents posted a 52.9% effective field goal mark against them, 285th. They also gave up 36.1% from three, 327th. Neither team's returning-minutes figure is available, so last season is a baseline rather than a verdict.

Few turnovers, fewer second chances

If Green Bay hopes to steal possessions, last season's profile offers little. The Phoenix forced turnovers at a 13.7% rate, 350th nationally, and their steal rate ranked 354th. St. Thomas, meanwhile, protected the ball as well as almost anyone, with a 14.0% turnover rate that ranked 21st.

The glass won't swing it much either. Both teams all but abandoned offensive rebounding last season: St. Thomas ranked 358th in offensive rebound rate and Green Bay 336th. Expect plenty of one-shot possessions, which puts even more weight on shooting.

Green Bay's lifeline at the line

Here is where the Phoenix had a real edge. Their free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) of 41.6% ranked 35th last season, and they cashed in at 76.6%, 37th. St. Thomas shot just 68.0% at the line, 325th, a weakness that can matter if this tightens late.

The catch: the Tommies didn't foul much. Their opponent free throw rate ranked 56th. Green Bay drawing whistles against a disciplined defense is the matchup inside the matchup.

Tempo is the other lever. Green Bay played at 64.8 possessions per 40 minutes, 312th, while St. Thomas pushed to 69.6, 84th. Fewer possessions shrink the number of chances for a more efficient offense to separate.

Schedules, rosters and coaches

St. Thomas arrives on short turnaround. The Tommies visit Minnesota on Nov. 6, two days before this game, so legs and rotation choices are worth watching.

John Tauer, in his 16th season, returns a team that went 24-10 and reached the NIT, where Seattle ended its run 67-52 in the first round. Carter Bjerke and Kendall Blue both made the Summit League preseason first team.

Green Bay went 18-15 and was picked third in the Horizon preseason poll. The Phoenix lost CJ O'Hara, who averaged 14.1 points last season at Green Bay and is a preseason all-league first-team pick; his new school was not stated. Doug Gottlieb coached last season, and his status for this one is unconfirmed. No injuries or eligibility issues are known for either side as of Oct. 26.

What to watch

• Two-point finishing: if St. Thomas scores inside the way it did last season, Green Bay's defense has little to fall back on.
• Free throw attempts: Green Bay needs a steady trip to the line to keep pace.
• Tempo: a slow, grinding game is the Phoenix's best shape.
• Fatigue: watch the Tommies' energy coming off the Minnesota game.