Penn State vs Pittsburgh prediction: Pitt and Penn State reboot an old rivalry with rebuilt rosters
Both programs turned over most of their rosters, so the 150th meeting comes down to which coach's new group arrives at the Palestra ready first.
- Expect a deliberate, unfamiliar game: two heavily rebuilt rosters, one week into the season, on a neutral floor in Philadelphia.
- Pitt's new backcourt, led by Jalil Bethea, against a Penn State guard group whose starting point guard sat out the exhibition.
- No line is posted yet; the last meeting was Pitt 80, Penn State 46, but few players from that game remain.
Strangers in a familiar series
This is the 150th meeting between these programs, but almost nobody on the floor Nov. 8 will have been part of that history. Penn State returns only 26.5 percent of last season's minutes and 29.4 percent of its scoring. Pitt brings back 42.5 percent of its minutes, and Jeff Capel added 13 newcomers, 11 of them transfers.
That turnover makes last season's team numbers a weak guide. Penn State went 12-20 and Pitt went 13-20 in 2025-26, and the players who drove those records are mostly gone. Pitt lost Cameron Corhen, Barry Dunning Jr. and Brandon Cummings, plus Roman Siulepa to Ole Miss and Nojus Indrusaitis to California. The read on this game has to start with the people arriving, not the box scores they left behind.
Both coaches also come in under pressure. Pitt considered moving on from Capel after last season before keeping him, with a buyout around $15 million part of that decision. Mike Rhoades enters Year 4 at Penn State at 44-52 overall and 18-42 in Big Ten play, and at least one preseason Big Ten projection slots the Nittany Lions last.
Penn State's lineup is still settling
The projected Penn State starting five is Bowen at point guard, Miami (Ohio) transfer Brant Byers at shooting guard, Reed on the wing, Prkačin at power forward and Jurić at center. Two of those five, Bowen and Prkačin, did not play in the Oct. 17 exhibition win over St. Bonaventure, 68-65, and no reason was given. Davidson transfer Roberts Blums came off the bench that night, and Jay Rodgers did not start at the point even with Bowen out.
That leaves real questions about who handles the ball and who protects the paint when the games count. Rhoades has a nine-man rotation to work with and was candid about its limits, calling his group "maybe not as deep as the rest of the league." Freshman forward Aleksandar Zecevic could add frontcourt minutes, though his role isn't set.
Pitt hands Bethea the keys
Pitt's reshuffle runs through Jalil Bethea, who is expected to run the offense, with transfers Baye Ndongo and Naithan George and four-star freshmen Chase Foster and Jermal Jones Jr. in the mix. Capel typically plays eight, so the newcomers who earn early minutes will carry heavy loads.
The returning core is guard-heavy. Damarco Minor started 32 games last season, playing 32.1 minutes a night with a 114 offensive rating while shooting 88.3% at the line. That last number matters: Pitt made just 67.4% of its free throws last season, 340th of 365, and Minor is the one returner who can close games from the stripe. Omari Witherspoon is the other veteran, though his 43.2% effective field goal percentage (a shooting mark that counts threes 1.5 times) last season leaves room to grow.
Pitt also gets a tune-up first. The Panthers open against Buffalo on Nov. 5, three days before this game.
What survives a roster purge
Coaching styles outlast rosters, and two of them stand out. Capel's Pitt teams play slowly: last season the Panthers averaged 64.1 possessions per 40 minutes, 339th nationally. Penn State sat at 66.8, 223rd. Expect Pitt to try to drag this game into the half court.
Pitt also crashed the glass, grabbing 33.9% of its own misses (83rd), while Penn State's offensive rebound rate of 25.9% ranked 334th. Whether a new Pitt frontcourt built around Ndongo keeps that edge is a fair early test.
Penn State's problem last season was defense. Opponents posted a 58.4% effective field goal percentage against the Nittany Lions, last among 365 teams, and hit 38.8% from three. That was a different roster, but it is the issue Rhoades' rebuild has to solve.
The Palestra sets the stage
This is the 150th meeting, with Penn State holding a 76-73 series edge, and the second straight neutral-site game between them. The last one was lopsided: Pitt won 80-46 in Hershey on Dec. 21. This year's game is part of the Palestra's 100th anniversary celebration, and it airs on ESPN2.
Neither side gets much of a building edge. Penn State has played 64 previous games at the Palestra, while Pitt is 7-15 all-time there.
What to watch
- Whether Bowen and Prkačin are in Penn State's starting five.
- How Bethea and Minor split ball-handling duties.
- Pitt's tempo, and whether Penn State can push it.
- Free throws late, given Pitt's struggles there last season.
Key players
- Damarco Minor (Pittsburgh): Started 32 games last season and shot 88.3% from the line, the best mark on a team that ranked 340th in free throw percentage.
- Omari Witherspoon (Pittsburgh): Played 27.8 minutes a game last season but posted a 43.2% effective field goal percentage.
Numbers that matter
| Penn State returning minutes | 26.5% | Penn State is close to a brand-new team, so last season's numbers say little about this one. |
|---|---|---|
| Pitt returning minutes | 42.5% | Pitt keeps more continuity, led by guards Minor and Witherspoon. |
| Pitt pace last season | 339th | Capel's teams grind possessions, which shapes the flow of this game whoever is on the roster. |
| Penn State opponent eFG% last season | 58.4% | Ranked last nationally; the defensive problem Rhoades' rebuild has to fix. |
| Last meeting | 80-46 | Pitt's blowout win in Hershey on Dec. 21 came with rosters that have since been largely replaced. |
Penn State vs Pittsburgh: quick answers
When is Penn State vs Pittsburgh?
Sunday, November 8, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET.