Houston vs California prediction: Houston's transfer-built roster tests Sampson's defense against a remade Cal

Sampson rebuilds on the same blueprint

Houston opens at No. 10 in the AP poll with a roster few fans would recognize. The players back this season logged just 23.4% of last season's minutes, and the backcourt that drove a 30-7 team is gone. Kelvin Sampson, in his 13th season, has rebuilt with transfers.

The identity he is betting on is defense. Last season Houston allowed 89.2 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents, 4th of 365 teams. That number belongs to a different roster, so treat it as the standard Sampson coaches to, not a guarantee. Cal is even greener, bringing back 20.5% of its minutes.

The history is a footnote, but a strange one. Houston leads the series 4-3, yet it hasn't beaten Cal since a 54-51 win on Dec. 9, 1997. These teams haven't met since 1999.

Transfers carry the Houston offense

The new engine is Dedan Thomas Jr., a preseason All-Big 12 pick who averaged 15.1 points and 6.4 assists at LSU in 16 games last season. Beside him, Corey Hadnot II scored 20.4 points a game at Purdue Fort Wayne, and Delrecco Gillespie put up 17.7 points and 11.2 rebounds at Kent State.

The question is the step up in competition. Hadnot and Gillespie were high-usage scorers in smaller leagues, and opening night is their first look at power-conference length. The anchor who is back is Joseph Tugler, also a preseason All-Big 12 pick, who blocked 1.5 shots a game last season and gives the defense its rim protection.

Cal's shooting walked out the door

Cal was a good shooting team last season, making 36.7% of its threes, 36th nationally. The players who made that happen are gone. John Camden hit 39.5% from deep and Chris Bell hit 40%, and returning players account for just 14.9% of last season's points.

Mark Madsen has replaced them with transfers. Nojus Indrusaitis shot 38.7% from three at Pitt, and Michael Cooper averaged 13.4 points at Wright State. If those two can't get clean looks against Houston's guards, Cal has few other places to find points.

The possession battle favors Houston

Last season's Houston teams almost never gave the ball away. Their turnover rate of 12.8% (turnovers per 100 possessions) ranked 2nd in the country. They also chased their own misses, ranking 43rd in offensive rebound rate, while Cal ranked 332nd at getting its misses back.

Both rosters have turned over, but rebounding and ball security usually follow the coach's system more than the personnel. Cal's best answer on the glass is Lee Dort, who averaged 7.8 rebounds last season, with 7-foot freshman Nicolas Mitrovic behind him.

Tempo points the same way. Houston played at one of the slowest paces in the country, 315th, while Cal ran at a quicker clip, 105th. A Houston-paced game means fewer possessions, which gives a team with less firepower less room to recover.

What to watch

• Thomas's decisions. A new point guard against a new defense is where early-season games tip.
• Cal's first ten threes. The offense depends on Indrusaitis and Cooper hitting from deep.
• Second chances. Houston's system against Cal's rebounding history will decide how many possessions each team gets.
• The line. None was posted as of Oct. 26, so watch where it opens for this inaugural Caesars Lake Tahoe Classic tip at 8:30 PM ET.