UT Arlington vs Hawai'i prediction: UT Arlington's elite perimeter defense tests Hawai'i's 13 newcomers in Honolulu

Two defenses built to deny

Neither team gave anything away last season. UT Arlington allowed 97.9 points per 100 possessions, 12th in Division I. Hawai'i sat one spot behind at 98.1. Those rankings are for points per 100 possessions, so they measure defense without letting pace distort it.

The Mavericks did their best work beyond the arc. Opponents made just 26.7% of their threes against them, the best mark in the country. Hawai'i's perimeter defense was nearly as stingy, holding opponents to 30.0% from deep. That ranked 13th.

Those numbers describe last season's rosters, and both programs have turned over a lot of personnel since. But Eran Ganot is in his 12th season at Hawai'i, and defensive identity tends to travel with a coaching staff more reliably than shooting does.

Where UT Arlington finds points

The Mavericks' problem last season was the other end. They shot 29.1% from three, which ranked 359th, and they rarely tried. They also gave the ball away on 20.3% of possessions, 349th in the country.

The offense survived on second chances. UT Arlington grabbed 36.1% of its own misses, 31st nationally. That runs straight into Hawai'i's strength on the defensive glass, where the Rainbow Warriors finished 21st. If Hawai'i's new frontcourt holds that line, the Mavericks will struggle to manufacture possessions.

Turnovers may not save Hawai'i, though. The Rainbow Warriors were loose with the ball themselves last season, ranking 299th in turnover rate, while UT Arlington ranked 97th at forcing them.

Free throws and a tempo tug

This may be the game's clearest pressure point. Hawai'i lived at the foul line last season, ranking 29th in free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt). UT Arlington's defense fouled heavily, allowing an opponent free throw rate of 40.6%, which ranked 318th. A great perimeter defense that sends opponents to the line can bleed points without allowing a clean look.

The pace preferences also differ. Hawai'i played at 71.4 possessions per 40 minutes, 31st in the country. UT Arlington ranked 200th. A home team that wants to run, against a visitor that struggles to score in the half court, gives the Rainbow Warriors a reason to push.

New faces, new leagues

Last season's numbers come with a heavy asterisk here. Hawai'i is debuting a roster with 13 newcomers, including transfers Marcus Adams Jr. from Arizona State, Manie Joses from Davidson and Bol Dengdit from UC San Diego. That group inherits a program that went 24-9, won the 2026 Big West tournament and reached the NCAA Tournament.

One familiar face is back. Tanner Cuff missed all of 2025-26 with an injury and returned in the Oct. 25 exhibition win over Hawai'i Pacific, playing 17 minutes.

UT Arlington also reloaded, adding freshman Trevaun Clark, Lithuanian Kajus Mikalauskas and transfers including Tycen McDaniels from Alcorn State. Both programs are opening life in new conferences, the Mavericks in the United Athletic Conference and Hawai'i in the Mountain West. This early-season test comes in the 60th Outrigger Rainbow Classic, with tip set for 5 p.m. local time at the Stan Sheriff Center.