North Dakota State vs Cal State Bakersfield prediction: Stefonowicz leads a rebuilt North Dakota State into Todd Lee's Bakersfield debut stretch

Two programs starting over

North Dakota State swept the Summit League regular season and tournament last spring, then watched its roster scatter. The Bison have 13 new players this season, eight transfers and five freshmen, after Trevian Carson (now at Cincinnati), Noah Feddersen (now at Colorado) and others left through the portal. Point guard Andy Stefonowicz is the returning leader, and newcomers Rob Diaz III (Long Beach State), Melvin Bell (San Jose State), Jack Robison (Wisconsin) and Jaziah Harper (Maryland) fill in around him. They were still voted first in the Summit League preseason poll.

Cal State Bakersfield is resetting too. Todd Lee, a former Roadrunners assistant, was hired March 26 as the program's 10th head coach, succeeding Rod Barnes. He inherits a team that went 8-24 last season and finished 346th of 365 in net efficiency (points scored minus points allowed per 100 possessions). With this much change on both benches and rosters, last season's team numbers describe the systems more than the players, so treat them as a rough guide.

Bakersfield's shooting problem

Last season the Roadrunners rarely shot threes and rarely made them. Their 3-point attempt rate ranked 358th, and their 28.9% from deep ranked 360th. Their effective field goal percentage (which counts threes as 1.5 makes) sat at 46.2%, 355th nationally.

What they did well was get to the line. Bakersfield's free throw rate of 42.5% ranked 19th. That ran into a North Dakota State defense that kept opponents off the stripe, with an opponent free throw rate that ranked 38th. If the Bison defend without fouling again, Bakersfield's one reliable source of offense goes away.

The glass tilts north

The biggest structural gap from last season was on the defensive boards. North Dakota State rebounded 75.0% of opponents' misses, 11th in the country. Bakersfield grabbed only 65.2%, ranked 347th, which handed opponents second chances all winter.

Bakersfield has the size edge on average height, and it blocked shots well last season, ranking 25th in block rate. The Bison counter with 7-foot freshman Colin Stack, though his role hasn't been set. How Lee's staff rebuilds the defensive rebounding is the clearest test of whether this is a different team.

Pace and the road trip

Bakersfield played fast last season, 15th in pace, while North Dakota State sat near the middle at 151st. The Roadrunners will want transition chances to make up for their half-court shooting.

This is the last stop on a three-game California trip for the Bison, who also face Saint Mary's and San Francisco before tipping here on Sunday, Nov. 8. The teams meet again a week later, on Nov. 15 in Fargo. The series has swung both ways at the Icardo Center: Bakersfield won 86-81 there in November 2024, and North Dakota State won 80-69 there last December.

What to watch

• Stefonowicz's control: he shot 90.3% at the line last season, valuable late in a close road game.
• Tay Smith's volume from three: he made 75 threes at 39.1% last season off the bench.
• Bakersfield's free throw attempts: a high count means the Roadrunners found their game.
• Defensive rebounding: if Bakersfield's misses stay one-and-done, the Bison should pull away.