Incarnate Word vs UTEP prediction: UTEP's rebuilt Miners face Incarnate Word's sharpshooters in El Paso

New faces in the Haskins Center

UTEP enters its first Mountain West season with a completely revamped 15-man roster, and that is the story of this Nov. 8 visit from Incarnate Word. Joe Golding's incoming transfers include Reid Cason (East Carolina), Augusto Cassia (Ole Miss), Ryan Jackson Jr. and Reese Miller (William & Mary), Mikey Kelvin II (FIU), Leif Moeller (Evansville), Janusz Ratowski (Stetson) and Jace Whiting (Weber State). Freshmen Donovan Criss, Delano Tarpley, Isaiah Ward and Kaleb Jackson join them, along with international additions Ivan Perasovic of Croatia and Youssouf Traore of Mali. No starting lineup has been named.

That overhaul makes last season's UTEP numbers a weak guide. The 2025-26 Miners went 11-20 and ranked 304th in adjusted offensive efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents). Mountain West coaches and media see only modest improvement: UTEP was picked ninth in the preseason poll.

The ratings offer no tiebreaker. Last season's final adjusted net efficiency put Incarnate Word at -9 (264th) and UTEP at -9.1 (265th). With little to separate the teams, UTEP's home floor may be the clearest edge.

The Cardinals can shoot

Incarnate Word's identity last season was the three-point shot. The Cardinals made 37.7% from deep, 22nd in Division I, while finishing just 49.2% inside the arc. They lived outside and struggled near the rim.

UTEP's defense held opponents to 34.2% from three last season, a middling 227th. Whether a group of newcomers can close out and communicate in early November is the question this game poses. Incarnate Word's own roster for this season couldn't be confirmed. The Cardinals played an exhibition at Michigan State on Oct. 2, but its result wasn't found.

Second chances and live-ball turnovers

The battle for possessions favored different teams in different ways last season. Incarnate Word grabbed 34.1% of its own misses (76th), and UTEP's defensive rebounding ranked 295th. If that pattern holds, the Cardinals should earn extra shots.

UTEP's counter was pressure. The Miners forced turnovers on 18.9% of opponent possessions (82nd) and posted a steal rate that ranked 72nd. Incarnate Word's 16.9% turnover rate sat in the middle of the pack. Neither team played fast last season: Incarnate Word ranked 275th in pace and UTEP 250th, which points toward a grinding, possession-by-possession game.

A trip to the line

Both defenses fouled heavily last season. UTEP's opponent free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) ranked 345th, and Incarnate Word's ranked 308th. Neither team turned those trips into easy points: the Cardinals made 71.6% of their free throws and the Miners 70%. In a close game, the whistle could decide more than the jump shots.

What to watch

• Whether UTEP's new perimeter defenders run Incarnate Word off the three-point line.
• The Cardinals' offensive rebounding against a Miners frontcourt built almost entirely from transfers and newcomers.
• Availability. As of Oct. 19, the only injury report found listed no UTEP injuries. Nothing has been reported for Incarnate Word.
• The market. No spread or total had been posted when this was written.