UMass Lowell River Hawks vs Massachusetts Minutemen prediction: UMass lays 11.5 with an offense still searching for answers

A favorite still finding itself

UMass is laying double digits tonight with an offense that hasn't looked like a double-digit favorite's. Through two games the Minutemen own an effective field goal percentage (a shooting measure that counts threes 1.5 times) of 46.2%, which ranks 301st nationally. They also turn it over on 21.4% of possessions, 311th. The low point came Friday at TD Garden, where they scored 55 in a 71-55 loss to Boston College.

Some of that comes from a lineup in flux. Frank Martin, in his fifth season, has a roster that played 41.6% of last season's minutes, and he lost his top two scorers, Leonardo Bettiol and Marcus Banks Jr. Returning starter Jayden Ndjigue has missed both games with a hand injury from the preseason. Around Nov. 5, Martin said Ndjigue would be reevaluated the following Tuesday, and nothing since has settled whether he plays tonight. Cam Hailey and Luka Damjanac also sat against Boston College while working back from injuries, and neither has a return date.

Lowell's rebuild gets a real test

Pat Duquette, in his 14th season, started over. Players on this Lowell roster accounted for just 11.2% of last season's minutes. That makes last season's final adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) of -15.9, 319th, a weak guide to this team.

The 3-0 start, Lowell's first since 2023-24, needs a filter. One win was a rout of non-Division I Rivier. The two Division I wins came against Merrimack and Marist, ranked 189th and 187th in last season's adjusted ratings. Lowell won 71-61 at Merrimack as a 9.5-point underdog and then edged Marist 63-61. Eastern Kentucky transfer Jayden Harris carries the scoring and scored 26 at Merrimack. Siena transfer Christian Jones runs the offense, and freshman Jasiah Cannady has given the River Hawks punch off the bench.

The giveaway and glass battle

This is where the spread lives, and the line has moved from UMass -11.5 to -7.5. Lowell turns it over on just 12.5% of possessions, 29th in the country. UMass's defense barely takes the ball away: its forced turnover rate of 10.2% ranks 361st. If Lowell's guards play clean, the Minutemen lose one of the usual ways a big favorite pulls away.

UMass's best counter is the offensive glass. The Minutemen grab 42.0% of their misses, 43rd nationally, and 6-foot-9 transfer Junjie Wang averages 9.5 rebounds. Lowell's defense has been sturdy on the boards so far, with a defensive rebound rate of 76.9% that ranks 49th. The other end is a soft spot for UMass. Its defensive rebounding ranks 305th, which gives Lowell's forwards second chances.

Rim protection, pace and the total

UMass's defense has been excellent at the rim. Center Abdullah Ahmed averages 5.0 blocks, and the team's block rate of 19.1% ranks 15th. Opponents have shot 18.2% from three against the Minutemen, third nationally. That figure covers only two games, so some of it is luck. Lowell rarely leans on the three anyway, and Victor Okojie went 1-for-9 from deep against Marist.

The pace points the same way. UMass has averaged 63.3 possessions per 40 minutes, 344th, a sharp change from last season's up-tempo team. All four of these teams' lined games this season went under. The 149.5 total, up from 147.5 when it was first seen, sits above the closing totals in Lowell's two Division I games.

Free throws could decide a close finish. UMass is shooting 55.2% at the line, 352nd. UMass won two of the last three meetings in Amherst, but Lowell's 96-83 win there in December 2024 shows this rivalry can turn.