UAB Blazers vs Jacksonville St Gamecocks prediction: Jacksonville State's three-point barrage tests a rebuilt UAB on the road
The Gamecocks fire from deep at one of the highest rates in the country, while UAB's best weapon is a trip to the free-throw line.
Jacksonville St Gamecocks covered the closing spread (UAB Blazers -1.5). The game went under the closing total of 147.5.
| Spread | UAB -2.25 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 147.75 |
- Jacksonville State lets it fly from three; UAB tries to grind its way to the line and win the final minutes.
- Jordan Stiemke and Chris Lockett Jr. against a UAB perimeter defense that has allowed plenty of three-point attempts.
- UAB is a 3.5-point road favorite, up from 3.25; the teams rank 276th and 292nd in adjusted net efficiency.
The Gamecocks live behind the arc
Jacksonville State has rebuilt its roster around one idea: shoot threes, and shoot a lot of them. Through three games the Gamecocks have taken 51.8% of their shots from deep, 24th-most in Division I, and made 38.8% of them. They have already hit 40 threes, and Jordan Stiemke and Chris Lockett Jr. account for 22 of them.
Lockett is the hot hand. He is shooting 55.6% from three while running the offense at 6.0 assists per game. UAB hasn't taken the line away from opponents: teams have launched 42.6% of their shots from deep against the Blazers, a middle-of-the-pack 143rd in Division I. Their 99-78 opening loss to McNeese got away during a long McNeese run. If the Gamecocks get clean looks early, a short road favorite has little margin to work with.
UAB's path runs through the line
UAB's guards have struggled to finish inside. The Blazers make 43.2% of their twos, 339th of 364. Against most defenses that would be a serious problem. Jacksonville State has been even worse at protecting the paint, though: opponents hit 58.9% of their twos against the Gamecocks.
The Gamecocks also foul. Their opponent free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) is 43.5%, 291st in the country. That plays straight into UAB's hands. The Blazers draw fouls at a 43.6% rate and make 83.5% of their free throws, ninth nationally. Jacksonville State makes 63.8% of its own, 307th. In a game priced at a field goal, that gap could matter most in the final four minutes.
Two rosters built from scratch
Neither team resembles last season's version. Jacksonville State brought in 14 newcomers and returns none of its minutes. UAB brings back 9.7% of its minutes, nearly all of them from sophomore guard Salim London. Last season's team numbers describe different players, so the early returns from these rosters are the better guide, thin as they are.
Kennedy, 145-62 at UAB, rebuilt around transfers: Justyn Fernandez from Delaware, Deuce Jones from Saint Joseph's and T.J. Caldwell from Arkansas State. Jeremy Elyzee, from SE Louisiana, posted a double-double with 14 rebounds against Nicholls. The Blazers come in on a two-game winning streak after a season-best 92 points against Florida A&M.
Ray Harper, in his 11th season, is 2-3 against UAB in his career. His team is hard to read. It routed LaGrange, lost by three at South Alabama, then scored 46 at Houston on Wednesday, three days before this tip.
What the market is pricing
Our feed first saw UAB at 3.25 and it now sits at 3.5, a small move toward the visitors. The total of 149.5 hasn't budged. Adjusted efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) puts these teams close together: UAB ranks 276th in adjusted net efficiency, Jacksonville State 292nd. The home floor and the three-point volume are what the Gamecocks bring to that small gap.
UAB is 0-2 against the spread in games with a line, including a 70-63 win over Nicholls that fell well short of the number. Both of Jacksonville State's lined games have gone over. The game streams on ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET.
UAB Blazers vs Jacksonville St Gamecocks line movement and odds
| Book | Blazers ML | Gamecocks ML | Blazers spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -140 | +110 | -2.5 (-110) | o148.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | -132 | +107 | -1.5 (-112) | o148.5 (-110) |
| DraftKings | -135 | +114 | -2.5 (-102) | o147.5 (-112) |
| ESPN BET | -135 | +115 | -1.5 (-110) | o147.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | -130 | +110 | -2 (-110) | o147.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | -120 | +100 | -1.5 (-110) | o147.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | -130 | +105 | -1.5 (-110) | o148.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | -130 | +110 | -2 (-110) | o148 (-110) |
Where the money is on UAB Blazers vs Jacksonville St Gamecocks
On the Kalshi moneyline: UAB Blazers: 42% of bets, 8% of the money; Jacksonville St Gamecocks: 58% of bets, 92% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: UAB Blazers -1.5: 47% of bets, 20% of the money; Jacksonville St Gamecocks +1.5: 53% of bets, 81% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 147.5: 75% of bets, 19% of the money; Under 147.5: 25% of bets, 81% of the money.
UAB Blazers vs Jacksonville St Gamecocks stats (this season)
| Stat | UAB Blazers | Jacksonville St Gamecocks |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Adjusted offensive efficiency | 104.4 (253rd of 364) | 102.1 (303rd of 364) |
| Adjusted defensive efficiency | 109.5 (266th of 364) | 108.1 (223rd of 364) |
| Adjusted net efficiency | -5.1 (276th of 364) | -5.9 (292nd of 364) |
| Pace | 72.3 (124th of 364) | 70.0 (201st of 364) |
| Effective FG% | 48.1% (286th of 364) | 53.3% (155th of 364) |
| Opponent effective FG% | 50.3% (230th of 364) | 49.2% (202nd of 364) |
| Turnover rate | 18.0% (191st of 364) | 16.2% (120th of 364) |
| Offensive rebound % | 36.4% (127th of 364) | 31.1% (239th of 364) |
| 3-point % | 37.1% (89th of 364) | 38.8% (52nd of 364) |
| Free throw rate | 43.6% (76th of 364) | 29.1% (277th of 364) |
Key players
- Deuce Jones (UAB): He scores 15.3 points per game on a 29.6% usage rate, but his effective field goal percentage sits at 37.9%.
- Justyn Fernandez (UAB): He scores 15.0 points per game with a 53% effective field goal mark, and he shot 40.3% from three at Delaware last season.
- Jeremy Elyzee (UAB): He averages 7.7 rebounds per game, including 14 against Nicholls.
- T.J. Caldwell (UAB): Off the bench he has made 5 of 11 threes and all of his free throws.
- Jordan Stiemke (Jacksonville State): He leads the Gamecocks at 18.0 points per game and is shooting 41.4% from three.
- Chris Lockett Jr. (Jacksonville State): He averages 6.0 assists, shoots 55.6% from three and carries a 142.4 offensive rating.
- Naas Cunningham (Jacksonville State): He scores 12.0 points per game on a 28.7% usage rate but is shooting 33.3% from the field.
- Ethan Croley (Jacksonville State): He leads the regulars with 5.7 rebounds per game and is shooting 55.6% from the floor.
Numbers that matter
| JSU 3-point attempt rate | 51.8% | Ranks 24th in volume and sets the shape of the Gamecocks' offense. |
|---|---|---|
| UAB free throw % | 83.5% | Ninth nationally, against a Jacksonville State defense that fouls often. |
| JSU opponent 2-point % | 58.9% | Ranks 329th, which gives UAB's poor finishers an opening inside. |
| JSU free throw % | 63.8% | Ranks 307th, a weakness if the game comes down to the final minutes. |
| Spread | 3.5 | UAB is favored on the road, up from 3.25 when our feed first saw the game. |
UAB Blazers vs Jacksonville St Gamecocks: quick answers
What was the final score of UAB Blazers vs Jacksonville St Gamecocks?
UAB Blazers 68, Jacksonville St Gamecocks 71 (final). Jacksonville St Gamecocks covered the closing spread (UAB Blazers -1.5). The game went under the closing total of 147.5.
Who is favored in UAB Blazers vs Jacksonville St Gamecocks?
UAB is favored by 2.25 points (UAB -2.25).
What is the over/under for UAB Blazers vs Jacksonville St Gamecocks?
The total is 147.75 points.
When is UAB Blazers vs Jacksonville St Gamecocks?
Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET.
Where is UAB Blazers vs Jacksonville St Gamecocks played?
Pete Mathews Coliseum, Jacksonville, AL.
Has the line moved for UAB Blazers vs Jacksonville St Gamecocks?
Yes: UAB Blazers opened -2.5 and is now -1.5, and the total moved from 149.5 to 147.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on UAB Blazers vs Jacksonville St Gamecocks?
On the Kalshi moneyline: UAB Blazers: 42% of bets, 8% of the money; Jacksonville St Gamecocks: 58% of bets, 92% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: UAB Blazers -1.5: 47% of bets, 20% of the money; Jacksonville St Gamecocks +1.5: 53% of bets, 81% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 147.5: 75% of bets, 19% of the money; Under 147.5: 25% of bets, 81% of the money.