Tulane Green Wave vs Akron Zips prediction: Krystian Lewis and the free-throw line carry Tulane into Akron
Tulane gets to the stripe more than anyone in the country, but its first road trip lands against an Akron team laying 12.25 points on numbers built against soft opposition.
Tulane Green Wave covered the closing spread (Tulane Green Wave +11.5). The game went under the closing total of 155.5.
| Spread | Akron -11.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 155.75 |
- Akron's shooting and rebounding should build a lead; Tulane stays close only if Lewis keeps drawing fouls and the Zips' threes stop falling.
- Krystian Lewis, averaging 28.3 points on a 32.3% usage rate, against an Akron defense that has yet to face a real scorer.
- Akron sits at -12.25 after first showing at -12.5; Tulane is 1-2 against the spread and failed to cover as a 12.25-point favorite.
A team built to live at the line
Tulane has one dependable path to points, and it runs through the free-throw line. The Green Wave's free throw rate, which measures free-throw attempts per field-goal attempt, sits at 67.5%, first of 364 Division I teams. Nobody else gets there as often.
Most of those trips belong to Krystian Lewis. The UL Monroe transfer opened with 40 points in a double-overtime win over UT Martin, sealed by two free throws with less than a second left, then added 35 against Nicholls. He has made 94.9% of his free throws and plays nearly every minute. Last season at UL Monroe he scored 18.4 points a game on 36.2% shooting, so this version is a big step up.
The Zips sit 198th in opponent free throw rate, which is neither a strength nor a glaring hole. If Lewis can turn the game into a parade to the line, he slows it down and keeps Tulane within reach.
Akron's gaudy numbers, soft schedule
Akron's raw defensive numbers look absurd. Opponents have made 31.0% of their twos, the best mark in the country. The schedule behind that is thin: a win at Louisiana, which ranks 348th in adjusted net efficiency, and a 112-64 rout of Division III Muskingum.
The opponent-adjusted ratings, which measure points per 100 possessions while accounting for who a team has played, are the steadier guide. Akron's adjusted net efficiency is 6.7 (59th). Tulane's is -4.9 (272nd), dragged down by an adjusted defense that ranks 332nd. That gap explains the double-digit spread better than any single box score.
Tulane has played all three games at home. This is its first road test, against a program that went 29-6 last season and beat the Green Wave 88-71 last December.
Akron's threes and the glass
Under first-year coach Dustin Ford, Akron fires away: 51.2% of its shots are threes, 27th most nationally. Tahj Staveskie, a preseason All-MAC second-teamer, has made 11 of 27. That volume lands on a Tulane defense that has let opponents hit 37.0% from deep, 304th in the country.
The misses may not help Tulane much either. Akron has grabbed 42.4% of its own misses (27th) and 80.2% of opponents' misses (6th). Tulane's offensive rebound rate ranks 240th, so second chances look scarce for the visitors. Add a two-point percentage that ranks 278th, and the free-throw line becomes even more important to Tulane's offense.
Two rebuilt rosters and a court case
Both teams start nearly from scratch. Tulane returns 25.5% of last season's minutes and Akron 25.9%, so last season's team numbers say little about either side. Ron Hunter, in his eighth season, rebuilt around transfers. Ford took over after John Groce left for Charleston.
Akron's key availability question is legal. An Oct. 29 Ohio Supreme Court order kept Evan Mahaffey and Kamrin Oriol eligible while a final ruling is pending. Both have played in both games, and Mahaffey started against Muskingum. No new ruling had surfaced as of Friday, so their status stays fluid. For Tulane, Arizona State transfer Dame Salane played one minute in an Oct. 28 exhibition. One report listed him with an undisclosed issue, but that hasn't been confirmed, and nothing newer has emerged.
Where the market sits
Akron is a 12.25-point favorite, down slightly from the -12.5 our feed first recorded, and the total has ticked up to 155.75. That spread matches exactly what Tulane laid against Jackson State in an 87-85 home loss. The Green Wave are 1-2 against the spread and 2-1 to the over.
The total rests on contrasting styles. Akron can bury teams early: it led Muskingum 62-27 at halftime. Tulane's free-throw parade adds points without using possessions. A Lewis foul-drawing clinic keeps the total climbing even if Akron pulls away.
Tulane Green Wave vs Akron Zips line movement and odds
| Book | Wave ML | Zips ML | Wave spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +525 | -900 | +11.5 (-110) | o156.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | +500 | -770 | +11.5 (-105) | o156.5 (-114) |
| DraftKings | +550 | -800 | +11.5 (-102) | o155.5 (-115) |
| ESPN BET | +600 | -1000 | +11.5 (-105) | o156.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | +575 | -850 | +12 (-110) | o155.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +640 | -1000 | +12.5 (-115) | o155.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +500 | -750 | +11.5 (-105) | o156.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | +550 | -800 | +11.5 (-110) | o155.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on Tulane Green Wave vs Akron Zips
On the Kalshi moneyline: Tulane Green Wave: 67% of bets, 55% of the money; Akron Zips: 33% of bets, 45% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Akron Zips -12.5: 35% of bets, 52% of the money; Tulane Green Wave +12.5: 65% of bets, 48% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 154.5: 59% of bets, 59% of the money; Under 154.5: 41% of bets, 41% of the money.
Key players
- Krystian Lewis (Tulane): Averaging 28.3 points on a 32.3% usage rate and shooting 94.9% at the line.
- TJ Nadeau (Tulane): The Detroit Mercy transfer has made 8 of 15 threes after shooting 46.7% from deep last season.
- Joah Chappelle (Tulane): Shooting 76.9% from the floor off the bench, all inside the arc.
- Tyler Ringgold (Tulane): Scoring 13.0 points a game but making just 54.8% of his free throws.
- Tahj Staveskie (Akron): Averaging 19.0 points and has made 11 of 27 threes.
- Evan Mahaffey (Akron): Owns a 144.6 offensive rating with 2.5 steals a game while his eligibility case remains open.
- Ty Pence (Akron): Scoring 16.0 points a game on 52.6% shooting.
- Kamrin Oriol (Akron): Averaged 20.9 points at North Florida last season and has come off the bench for 17.0 minutes a game.
Numbers that matter
| Tulane free throw rate | 67.5% | First of 364 nationally, and the main way Tulane can drag out possessions and stay within reach. |
|---|---|---|
| Adjusted net efficiency gap | 59th vs. 272nd | Akron's opponent-adjusted rating sits far above Tulane's, which supports a double-digit line. |
| Akron 3-point attempt rate | 51.2% | Akron shoots threes at volume against a Tulane defense that ranks 304th in opponent 3-point percentage. |
| Akron defensive rebound % | 80.2% | Sixth nationally, which limits second chances for a Tulane team ranked 240th on the offensive glass. |
| Current spread | -12.25 | Akron has moved slightly from the -12.5 our feed first saw, toward Tulane. |
Tulane Green Wave vs Akron Zips: quick answers
What was the final score of Tulane Green Wave vs Akron Zips?
Tulane Green Wave 63, Akron Zips 65 (final). Tulane Green Wave covered the closing spread (Tulane Green Wave +11.5). The game went under the closing total of 155.5.
Who is favored in Tulane Green Wave vs Akron Zips?
Akron is favored by 11.5 points (Akron -11.5).
What is the over/under for Tulane Green Wave vs Akron Zips?
The total is 155.75 points.
When is Tulane Green Wave vs Akron Zips?
Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 12:05 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Tulane Green Wave vs Akron Zips?
No: Tulane Green Wave has stayed at +11.5, and the total moved from 155 to 155.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Tulane Green Wave vs Akron Zips?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Tulane Green Wave: 67% of bets, 55% of the money; Akron Zips: 33% of bets, 45% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Akron Zips -12.5: 35% of bets, 52% of the money; Tulane Green Wave +12.5: 65% of bets, 48% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 154.5: 59% of bets, 59% of the money; Under 154.5: 41% of bets, 41% of the money.