Toledo vs Marshall prediction: Austin Parks and a veteran Toledo core test Marshall's rim protection
Toledo brings back most of a team that reached the MAC title game, but it lives on two-pointers against a Marshall defense built to block them, and it arrives at the end of a hard road week.
- Expect a quick, high-scoring game: both teams scored 81 points a night last season and neither cleaned its defensive glass.
- Austin Parks and Toledo's two-point attack against a Marshall defense that ranked 22nd nationally in block rate last season.
- No line is posted yet. Last season's final adjusted net ratings had Toledo 130th and Marshall 183rd.
Toledo's continuity edge
Toledo made a run to the MAC Championship Game last season and kept most of the team that got it there. Players on this season's roster logged 81.6% of last season's minutes and 77.8% of its points. That makes last season's numbers a better guide for the Rockets than they usually are in November.
The one big hole is in the backcourt. Leroy Blyden Jr. averaged 16.4 points and shot 41% from three, and he is now at Kansas. Sonny Wilson, who averaged 16.9 points last season, takes over as the clear lead guard.
Marshall's picture is murkier. Corny Jackson is in his third year as head coach, and Erich Harding, Will Moore and Bryce Slay are among the returners, but how much of last season's production comes back hasn't been settled. Last season's final adjusted efficiency ratings (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) had Toledo 130th of 365 in net rating and Marshall 183rd.
Where Toledo scores, Marshall swats
Toledo barely shot threes last season. Its 3-point attempt rate ranked 326th, one of the lowest in the country, even though it made 36.7% of the threes it took. The Rockets scored inside instead, hitting 54.9% of their two-pointers.
That runs straight into Marshall's best defensive trait. The Herd blocked 13.4% of opponents' two-point attempts last season, 22nd nationally. Parks, a senior center, made 60.9% of his shots last season and is the player this matchup turns on. If Marshall's shot-blockers turn him away, Toledo has to lean on Wilson, Sean Craig and Kyler Vanderjagt from the perimeter, which is not its habit.
Marshall's threes, Toledo's soft middle
Marshall played the opposite way. The Herd took 44.4% of their shots from three last season, 81st in the country, and made 36.8% of them, 33rd. Toledo held opponents to 34.1% from deep, a middling 214th.
The bigger worry for Toledo is inside. Opponents made 55.7% of their two-pointers against the Rockets last season, which ranked 334th. Toledo's block rate ranked 283rd. Marshall can win this game from either spot.
One thing Toledo did well: it kept opponents off the free-throw line, with an opponent free throw rate that ranked 14th. That matters against a Marshall team that didn't draw many fouls anyway, ranking 326th in free throw rate.
Extra possessions, heavy legs
Neither team finished defensive possessions last season. Toledo ranked 301st in defensive rebounding and Marshall ranked 321st. Both also played fast, with Marshall 48th in pace and Toledo 84th. Add it up and the possession count should run high.
The recent history agrees. Toledo won 88-87 at home in 2023 and 90-80 in Huntington in 2024. Marshall answered with an 85-73 win at Toledo last November.
Schedule could tilt things. This is Toledo's third road game of opening week, part of what the school calls the toughest non-conference slate in program history. The Rockets play at Michigan State on Thursday, Nov. 5, then tip at Cam Henderson Center on Saturday afternoon. Marshall will be at home for a Youth Nation promotion.
No injury or eligibility news had surfaced for either team as of Oct. 25.
Key players
- Sonny Wilson (Toledo): Averaged 16.9 points and 4.5 assists last season with an offensive rating of 120.7, and now inherits Blyden's touches.
- Austin Parks (Toledo): Shot 60.9% from the field last season and blocked 1.2 shots a game, making him the focal point against Marshall's shot-blockers.
- Sean Craig (Toledo): Posted a team-best 123.7 offensive rating last season while averaging 11.6 points and 7.2 rebounds.
- Kyler Vanderjagt (Toledo): Made 38.8% of his threes last season, the kind of outside help Toledo needs if the paint clogs.
Numbers that matter
| Toledo returning minutes | 81.6% | Share of last season's minutes played by players on this season's roster, so last season's numbers carry weight. |
|---|---|---|
| Marshall block rate, last season | 13.4% | Ranked 22nd nationally, a direct challenge to Toledo's two-point-heavy offense. |
| Marshall 3-point attempt rate, last season | 44.4% | Ranked 81st, the opposite of a Toledo team that ranked 326th. |
| Toledo opponent 2-point %, last season | 55.7% | Ranked 334th, an inside weakness Marshall can attack. |
| Defensive rebound % ranks, last season | 301st | Toledo's rank, with Marshall at 321st, pointing to plenty of second-chance possessions. |
Toledo vs Marshall: quick answers
When is Toledo vs Marshall?
Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET.