Stonehill Skyhawks vs Texas Tech Red Raiders prediction: Texas Tech's turnover machine chases a 40.5-point number against Stonehill
The Red Raiders take the ball away as well as almost anyone, Stonehill gives it away freely, and the real question is whether a cold-shooting Tech offense can finish what its defense starts.
Texas Tech Red Raiders covered the closing spread (Stonehill Skyhawks +39.5). The game went under the closing total of 143.5.
| Spread | Texas Tech -39 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 143.5 |
- Texas Tech should win comfortably, likely building the margin off live-ball turnovers rather than half-court shooting, which has been ugly through three games.
- Stonehill's ball handlers against Cruz Davis and Donovan Atwell: Davis averages 3.3 steals, and Atwell had five against Illinois.
- Texas Tech is -40.5 with a 142.5 total, unchanged since our feed first saw it; the Red Raiders are 0-3 to the under.
Steals set the margin
Texas Tech already has the result that will define its November: an 84-78 win over Illinois, the No. 1 team in adjusted net efficiency, in a game where the Red Raiders closed as underdogs. Saturday's task is blunter. A win over Stonehill would push the program's nonconference home winning streak to 50, and the betting interest is all about how big the win gets.
The answer starts with the ball. Grant McCasland's rebuilt team forces turnovers on 27.1% of opponent possessions, 15th of 364. Stonehill coughs it up on 21.5% of its own trips, which ranks 314th. Davis, the Hofstra transfer now running the point, is the tip of that spear, and Atwell spent the Illinois game jumping passing lanes.
Stonehill can't trade those possessions back. Its steal rate ranks 359th nationally, so the Skyhawks almost never create the easy transition points that keep a big underdog within range.
A jump shot gone missing
Tech's defense is ahead of its offense, and it isn't close. The Red Raiders shoot threes at the 41st-highest rate in the country but make just 28.7% of them, 288th. Last season's team ranked 7th from deep, but that roster is mostly gone, and only about a third of last season's minutes returned.
The player who most needs a breakout is a returner. Atwell hit 45.6% from three last season and sits at 25% this season. Darrion Williams, starting out of position at power forward, has made one of nine. Damarion Dennis has carried the shooting off the bench, hitting 7 of 15.
Stonehill has allowed opponents to hit 37.0% from three, 302nd nationally. If Tech's shooters warm up against that defense, the number gets reachable. If they don't, the Red Raiders will have to score off turnovers and second chances. JT Toppin remains sidelined recovering from a torn ACL. Jamichael Stillwell is playing under a temporary restraining order, not a final ruling, and put up 11 points and 13 rebounds against Illinois.
Stonehill's path runs through the line
Coach Chris Kraus essentially started over. The Skyhawks brought in 11 newcomers, and returning players account for just 10.4% of last season's minutes, so last season's 12-21 team says little about this one.
The new group has one real skill: getting to the foul line. Stonehill's free throw rate ranks 70th, and Texas Tech's defense allows opponents a free throw rate that ranks 285th. That is the Skyhawks' best way to slow the game and stop the clock.
Everything else has been a struggle. Stonehill lost 83-63 at Fordham and 75-55 at Columbia, teams that rank 234th and 272nd in adjusted net efficiency. Felipe Patino, the Southern Miss transfer, scored 15 in the Columbia loss and is the one guard producing efficiently. Ewan Steele takes the most shots on the roster and is hitting a 30% effective field goal percentage, a measure that counts threes 1.5 times.
Big spreads, low totals
The market opened at Texas Tech -40.5 and has not moved, with the total holding at 142.5. Tech has been here twice already and fell short both times: it closed -38.5 against Jackson State and won 76-42, then closed -29.75 against Bethune-Cookman and won 76-58.
The totals tell a sharper story. All three Tech games have gone under, including the Illinois game, which closed at 167. The Red Raiders allow 23.7 first-half points per game, 10th nationally, and their poor shooting keeps their own scoring in check too. Stonehill's offense ranks 316th in adjusted efficiency, which measures points per 100 possessions adjusted for opponents, so it won't do much to push the total up.
Stonehill Skyhawks vs Texas Tech Red Raiders line movement and odds
| Book | Skyhawks ML | Raiders ML | Skyhawks spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +3300 | -10000 | +38.5 (-105) | o143.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | — | — | +39.5 (-110) | o143.5 (-118) |
| DraftKings | — | — | +39.5 (-115) | o143.5 (-108) |
| ESPN BET | — | — | +39.5 (-110) | o143.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | +30000 | -100000 | +39 (-110) | o143.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | — | — | +38.5 (-104) | o143.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | — | — | +39.5 (-110) | o143.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | — | — | +39 (-110) | o143 (-110) |
Where the money is on Stonehill Skyhawks vs Texas Tech Red Raiders
On the Kalshi moneyline: Stonehill Skyhawks: 98% of bets, 21% of the money; Texas Tech Red Raiders: 2% of bets, 79% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Texas Tech Red Raiders -40.5: 28% of bets, 44% of the money; Stonehill Skyhawks +40.5: 72% of bets, 56% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 144.5: 19% of bets, 12% of the money; Under 144.5: 82% of bets, 88% of the money.
Key players
- Cruz Davis (Texas Tech): Leads the team at 16.7 points per game and averages 3.3 steals, the driver of Tech's turnover pressure.
- Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn (Texas Tech): Carries a team-high 26.6% usage rate and scored 15 against Illinois.
- Donovan Atwell (Texas Tech): Shot 45.6% from three last season but is at 25% this season, the swing factor for Tech's offense.
- Damarion Dennis (Texas Tech): Has hit 7 of 15 threes off the bench and scored a career-high 22 in the opener.
- Felipe Patino (Stonehill): Averages 11.0 points with a 62.5% effective field goal percentage, Stonehill's most reliable scorer.
- Anquan Boldin Jr. (Stonehill): Posts a 135.5 offensive rating off the bench, though he's shooting 54.5% at the line.
- Ewan Steele (Stonehill): Uses 26.2% of possessions while shooting 25% from the field.
- Eli Greenberg (Stonehill): Leads the team at 4.3 assists per game and is the main ball handler facing Tech's pressure.
Numbers that matter
| Tech forced turnover rate | 27.1% | Ranks 15th nationally, against a Stonehill offense whose turnover rate ranks 314th. |
|---|---|---|
| Tech 3-point shooting | 28.7% | Ranks 288th despite a high volume of attempts, down from 7th nationally last season. |
| Stonehill returning minutes | 10.4% | A nearly new roster makes last season's numbers a weak guide. |
| Spread | -40.5 | Unchanged since first seen; Tech failed to cover -38.5 against Jackson State. |
| Tech over/under record | 0-3 | Every Tech game has gone under, including a 167 total against Illinois. |
Stonehill Skyhawks vs Texas Tech Red Raiders: quick answers
What was the final score of Stonehill Skyhawks vs Texas Tech Red Raiders?
Stonehill Skyhawks 37, Texas Tech Red Raiders 88 (final). Texas Tech Red Raiders covered the closing spread (Stonehill Skyhawks +39.5). The game went under the closing total of 143.5.
Who is favored in Stonehill Skyhawks vs Texas Tech Red Raiders?
Texas Tech is favored by 39 points (Texas Tech -39).
What is the over/under for Stonehill Skyhawks vs Texas Tech Red Raiders?
The total is 143.5 points.
When is Stonehill Skyhawks vs Texas Tech Red Raiders?
Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Stonehill Skyhawks vs Texas Tech Red Raiders?
No: Stonehill Skyhawks has stayed at +39.5, and the total moved from 142 to 143.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Stonehill Skyhawks vs Texas Tech Red Raiders?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Stonehill Skyhawks: 98% of bets, 21% of the money; Texas Tech Red Raiders: 2% of bets, 79% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Texas Tech Red Raiders -40.5: 28% of bets, 44% of the money; Stonehill Skyhawks +40.5: 72% of bets, 56% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 144.5: 19% of bets, 12% of the money; Under 144.5: 82% of bets, 88% of the money.