St. Thomas (MN) Tommies vs Army Knights prediction: St. Thomas's rebuilt shooters test Army's stingy perimeter defense at West Point
The Tommies launch threes at one of the country's highest rates, and Army's early defense has taken the three away, though its offense hasn't shown it can keep pace.
St. Thomas (MN) Tommies 77, Army Knights 79 (final). Army Knights covered the closing spread (St. Thomas (MN) Tommies -6.5). The game went over the closing total of 146.5.
| Spread | St. Thomas-Minnesota -6 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 146.5 |
- Expect a deliberate, perimeter-heavy game; Army has started slowly, so St. Thomas's shooting and late free throws should decide whether it pulls away.
- Hayden Tibbits and the St. Thomas guards against an Army defense holding opponents to 25.8% from three, 46th nationally.
- St. Thomas is a 7.5-point favorite, unchanged since our feed first saw it; the Tommies lost at home to Green Bay as 7.5-point favorites.
The arc decides it
St. Thomas lost three of its top scorers from a 24-10 team and kept the same identity: shoot threes and make them. Half its field goal attempts come from deep (50.9%, 29th most in Division I), and it makes 36.1% of them.
Army's early defense is built to take that away. Opponents have made just 25.8% of their threes, 46th nationally. Its opponent effective field goal percentage (shooting accuracy with threes counted 1.5 times) is 42.1%, 40th in the country. Treat that with care: a 118-41 rout of Mount Saint Mary (NY) props up those numbers. Adjusted for opponents, Army's defense ranks 106th, solid but not elite.
Inside, the Black Knights block 15.4% of opponent two-point tries (49th), with Tate Laczkowski swatting 1.3 a game. That matters against a Tommies team making 58.3% of its twos.
The flip side favors Army's shooters. St. Thomas lets opponents fire away, allowing 51.7% of shots from three (19th most), and they've hit 36.1% against it. Kevin McCarthy has made 8 of 19. Ryan Curry has gone cold, at 17.6% from deep after an 0-for-9 night at New Haven.
New faces in old roles
Last season's St. Thomas numbers are a weak guide. Only 28.4% of last season's minutes are back. Nolan Minessale, who scored 19.8 a game last season, is now at Marquette, and Nick Janowski left for Davidson.
The new core looks capable. Tibbits, a bench player last season, averages 15.0 points and has made 9 of 20 threes. Tim Franks scored 24 at Presbyterian, then just 4 at Minnesota. Jeremy Lorenz carries the heaviest load inside. Kendall Blue played at Minnesota while pursuing a legal challenge for another season of eligibility; no ruling had surfaced as of Nov. 7. The Tommies are coming off a 119-82 exhibition romp over Macalester in which Brogan Madson scored 23.
Army is the more continuous team. It returns four starters and more than half its minutes, led by Curry, the only returning Patriot League player with more than 1,000 career points. Kevin Kuwik is in his fourth season. No injuries have been reported for either side.
Slow starts, empty trips
Army's games have looked lopsided at halftime in both directions. The Black Knights score 29.3 first-half points a game (323rd) but allow just 23.0 (7th). That keeps them close early and leaves the offense to catch up late.
Catching up is hard when the free-throw line yields so little. Army's free throw rate, free throw attempts per field goal attempt, ranks 351st. St. Thomas makes 83.7% of its free throws, 8th in the country, so a single-digit game late tilts toward the visitors.
Where the number sits
St. Thomas is favored by 7.5, with a total of 148.5, and neither has moved since our feed first recorded them this morning. That spread matches the Green Bay game, a 76-67 home loss the Tommies didn't cover.
The total is the bigger question. Both teams play slowly (St. Thomas 237th in pace, Army 286th). Army has gone under in both of its lined games, and St. Thomas in two of three. Army's 63-55 loss at New Haven came with a total of 133.0. The teams met last November in St. Paul, and St. Thomas won 83-76.
St. Thomas (MN) Tommies vs Army Knights line movement and odds
| Book | Tommies ML | Knights ML | Tommies spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -275 | +220 | -6.5 (-102) | o146.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | -265 | +200 | -5.5 (-115) | o146.5 (-108) |
| DraftKings | -285 | +230 | -6.5 (-105) | o146.5 (-112) |
| ESPN BET | -275 | +225 | -5.5 (-110) | o146.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | -280 | +225 | -6 (-110) | o146.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | -250 | +202 | -6.5 (-102) | o145.5 (-115) |
| Caesars | -267 | +215 | -6 (-110) | o146.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on St. Thomas (MN) Tommies vs Army Knights
On the Kalshi moneyline: St. Thomas (MN) Tommies: 45% of bets, 69% of the money; Army Knights: 55% of bets, 31% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: St. Thomas (MN) Tommies -7.5: 33% of bets, 44% of the money; Army Knights +7.5: 67% of bets, 56% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 147.5: 33% of bets, 31% of the money; Under 147.5: 67% of bets, 69% of the money.
Key players
- Hayden Tibbits (St. Thomas-Minnesota): Averages 15.0 points and 4.2 assists with an offensive rating of 146 after scoring 3.1 a game last season.
- Tim Franks (St. Thomas-Minnesota): Has made 11 of 29 threes, swinging from 24 points at Presbyterian to 4 at Minnesota.
- Jeremy Lorenz (St. Thomas-Minnesota): Leads the Tommies with a 24.8% usage rate and scored 20 on 5-of-7 shooting against Green Bay.
- Ryan Curry (Army): Averages 3.7 assists but is shooting 17.6% from three this season.
- Kevin McCarthy (Army): Leads Army at 11.7 points a game and has hit 42.1% of his threes.
- Tate Laczkowski (Army): Averages 6.0 rebounds and 1.3 blocks, anchoring a defense that challenges shots inside.
Numbers that matter
| St. Thomas 3-point attempt rate | 50.9% | Ranks 29th most in Division I; the Tommies' offense runs through the arc. |
|---|---|---|
| Army opponent 3-point % | 25.8% | 46th nationally, though a blowout of Mount Saint Mary (NY) helps the figure. |
| St. Thomas returning minutes | 28.4% | Last season's 24-10 profile says little about this roster. |
| St. Thomas free throw % | 83.7% | 8th in the country, a late-game edge against an Army team that rarely gets to the line. |
| Spread | -7.5 | St. Thomas's number, unchanged since our feed first saw the game. |
St. Thomas (MN) Tommies vs Army Knights: quick answers
What was the final score of St. Thomas (MN) Tommies vs Army Knights?
St. Thomas (MN) Tommies 77, Army Knights 79 (final). Army Knights covered the closing spread (St. Thomas (MN) Tommies -6.5). The game went over the closing total of 146.5.
Who is favored in St. Thomas (MN) Tommies vs Army Knights?
St. Thomas-Minnesota is favored by 6 points (St. Thomas-Minnesota -6).
What is the over/under for St. Thomas (MN) Tommies vs Army Knights?
The total is 146.5 points.
When is St. Thomas (MN) Tommies vs Army Knights?
Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET.
Has the line moved for St. Thomas (MN) Tommies vs Army Knights?
Yes: St. Thomas (MN) Tommies opened -8 and is now -6.5, and the total moved from 148 to 146.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on St. Thomas (MN) Tommies vs Army Knights?
On the Kalshi moneyline: St. Thomas (MN) Tommies: 45% of bets, 69% of the money; Army Knights: 55% of bets, 31% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: St. Thomas (MN) Tommies -7.5: 33% of bets, 44% of the money; Army Knights +7.5: 67% of bets, 56% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 147.5: 33% of bets, 31% of the money; Under 147.5: 67% of bets, 69% of the money.