St. Bonaventure vs Canisius prediction: Rebuilt Canisius opens at home against MacDonald's new-look St. Bonaventure

Two programs hitting reset

Canisius opens its home schedule on Nov. 7 with a roster that is new in almost every chair. The only returner who played last season is Trevor Augustine, who appeared in 8 games at 1.8 minutes a night. Gone are Kahlil Singleton and Bryan Ndjonga, who each averaged 13.9 points. Jim Christian is still the coach, and he has rebuilt with seven transfers plus freshmen Alex Mack, Dorsett Mulcahy and Abu Riak.

St. Bonaventure's reset is on the bench. Mike MacDonald is the first new head coach the program has had in nearly two decades. He inherits returners Joe Grahovac, Achille Lonati, Ilia Ermakov, John Ikpotokin and Jack DeRose, and this is the Bonnies' first road trip of the season.

That turnover makes last season's team numbers a weak guide, especially for Canisius. Still, the gap was wide. The Bonnies finished 133rd of 365 in adjusted net efficiency (points scored minus points allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents). Canisius finished 345th. St. Bonaventure has also won the last two meetings in this old rivalry, including 89-70 a year ago.

Where the Bonnies' length bites

Canisius could not finish inside last season. It made 44.6% of its twos, 359th nationally. St. Bonaventure blocked 13.6% of opponents' two-point attempts, 19th in the country. The Bonnies also play bigger this season, with a minutes-weighted average height of 77.4 inches to Canisius's 76.2. How much of that rim protection survives depends on frontcourt health and a new coach's scheme.

Canisius's best counter is the perimeter. Vinny Sigona made 40.1% of 157 threes at East Texas A&M, and Clinton Efinda hit 38.5% from deep at UNC Greensboro. That shooting would test a Bonnies defense that let opponents make 35.9% of their threes last season, 319th nationally.

St. Bonaventure went the other way on offense. It ranked 339th in 3-point attempt rate, so it shot few threes, but it made 37.7% of them. That accuracy ranked 21st.

Extra possessions for the Bonnies

Ball security is the other worry for Canisius. Last season's team turned it over on 19.7% of its possessions, 337th in the country. Mike Evbagharu, who averaged 3.1 assists, is gone. Preist Ryan, who started 24 games at Cleveland State, looks like the likeliest steadying hand in a backcourt full of new faces.

St. Bonaventure also chased its misses well. It grabbed 34.8% of its own missed shots, 62nd nationally. If Canisius gives the ball away and loses the glass, its shooters won't get enough clean looks to keep pace.

Frontcourt health in question

The Bonnies' size edge comes with a caveat. Sophomore forward Mason Blackwood, the team's leading scorer in its Oct. 17 exhibition against Penn State, hurt his foot in the locker room after that game. He was labeled out indefinitely. As of Oct. 24, imaging results were still pending, and MacDonald said the recovery could be shorter than first feared. His status for Nov. 7 is unsettled.

Grahovac sat out the Oct. 24 exhibition against Point Park with hamstring soreness. MacDonald called that a precautionary move. Junior Ari Fulton started in his place, and freshman Cameron Blankenberg picked up more bench minutes.

No Canisius injuries have turned up in our checks. It plays one more exhibition, at Robert Morris on Oct. 27, before this game.