Southern vs Drake prediction: Jalen Quinn's veteran Drake guards test Southern's turnover-hunting defense

The ball-security fight

The most interesting collision in this early-November game is a strength against a strength. Last season Southern forced turnovers on 20.2% of opponent possessions, 38th in the country, and ranked 21st in steal rate. The Jaguars make their living in passing lanes.

Drake rarely gave them that kind of living. The Bulldogs turned it over on 15.0% of possessions, 57th nationally, and the guards who handled the ball are largely back. Jalen Quinn carried a 31.7% usage rate last season, meaning nearly a third of Drake's possessions ended in his hands while he was on the floor. If Quinn and his backcourt partners keep Southern's hands off the ball, the Jaguars lose the main way they manufactured easy offense.

Threes against a soft perimeter

Drake's identity under Eric Henderson was the three-pointer. The Bulldogs took 45.7% of their shots from deep last season, 56th-most in Division I. Southern's defense struggled to deal with that kind of team, as opponents shot 35.3% from three against the Jaguars, 288th nationally.

The shooters are back. Eli Shetlar hit 39.5% on 195 attempts last season, and Andrew Alia made 38% of his threes as a low-usage connector.

Southern plays the other way. The Jaguars ranked 322nd in three-point attempt rate and attacked the basket, drawing free throws at the 62nd-highest rate nationally. Drake's defense kept opponents off the line better than most, ranking 88th in opponent free-throw rate. Southern also shot just 69.8% at the stripe last season, so even trips to the line weren't a sure source of points.

Two speeds, one floor

Southern wanted to run last season, averaging 71.6 possessions per 40 minutes, 29th-fastest in the country. Drake sat near the middle of the pack at 67.8. Steals feed Southern's tempo, so the turnover battle will likely set the pace as well.

Drake lost its most physical frontcourt piece. Forward Okku Federiko, who started every game and blocked a shot per night, transferred to Northwestern. Southern's minutes-weighted roster height runs slightly taller than Drake's. If the Jaguars find the rim, Drake has less size behind its guards than it did a year ago.

Continuity against the unknown

Drake returns 78% of last season's minutes, an unusual amount of stability for a program on its third head coach in three years. Henderson, hired from South Dakota State on March 28, 2025, enters his second season. That 14-20 team caught fire at Arch Madness, beating Southern Illinois and top-seeded Belmont before falling to UIC in the semifinals.

How much of Southern's 17-17 team returns is less clear, so treat the Jaguars' numbers from last season with more caution than Drake's. One gap stands out. Southern's raw net efficiency ranked 185th last season, but adjusted for opponents it fell to 286th, which suggests the SWAC schedule flattered the record. Kevin Johnson, in his fourth season, also has a demanding stretch ahead. This trip opens a road swing that continues at Iowa State on Nov. 10 and Minnesota on Nov. 12, with no home game in between.