Southern Utah Thunderbirds vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons prediction: Southern Utah's 143-point mirage faces Wake Forest's stubborn cover problem
The Thunderbirds' gaudy early numbers came against non-Division I teams, and High Point exposed them. Wake Forest has won comfortably but has yet to clear a spread.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons covered the closing spread (Southern Utah Thunderbirds +18.5). The game went under the closing total of 154.5.
| Spread | Wake Forest -18.25 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 154 |
- Wake Forest should control this at home, but its 0-3 ATS start suggests the Deacons win without pulling away the way the number expects.
- Anthony Breland's 3-point shooting against a Wake defense allowing 38.4% from deep, 326th nationally, is Southern Utah's best path to staying close.
- Wake is favored by 18.5, unchanged since our feed first saw it; the Deacons failed to cover the same 18.5 against Charleston Southern.
Three blowouts and a reality check
Southern Utah's season stat sheet looks like a typo. The Thunderbirds score 108.2 points per game, third in the country, and beat Bethesda 143-49 a week ago. None of their first three opponents carries a Division I rating, though, and the adjusted numbers tell a different story. Adjusted offensive efficiency (points per 100 possessions, corrected for opponent strength) puts them 283rd of 364.
The first real test arrived Thursday at High Point, and it went badly. Southern Utah trailed 38-31 at the half and lost 88-59 as a 22.5-point underdog. Freshman guard Rashaad Davis, who has come off the bench all season, went 0-for-8 from the field.
This is a rebuilt roster coming off a 10-22 season, with only 24.2% of last season's minutes back. Last season's team numbers say little about this group, and the three home blowouts say even less. Saturday is the second half of a North Carolina swing on two days' rest, in Winston-Salem for the first meeting between the schools.
Wake keeps winning short of the number
Wake Forest is 2-1 and 0-3 against the spread. The Deacons beat Maryland Eastern Shore 83-62 as 32.5-point favorites and Charleston Southern 82-64 as 18.5-point favorites. Neither covered. In between they lost 74-51 at Vanderbilt, the 15th-ranked team by adjusted net efficiency.
The problem is the offense. Wake ranks 219th in adjusted offensive efficiency and shoots 30.7% from three, 250th nationally. Xander Pintelon has made 3 of 17 threes. A team that scores this unevenly struggles to build the margin an 18.5-point line demands, even against an opponent rated 258th in adjusted net efficiency.
This is a nearly new team. Only 4.5% of last season's minutes return, with transfers like Kevair Kennedy from Merrimack and Justin Ray from Monmouth carrying the load. Jamari McDowell, sidelined by plantar fasciitis in the fall, has played since Wake's Nov. 2 opener and logged two blocks at Vanderbilt.
Extra chances on the glass
Wake's clearest weakness is finishing defensive possessions. The Deacons rank 302nd in defensive rebound rate (the share of opponents' misses they collect), and last season's team was nearly as bad at 307th. Southern Utah rebounded nearly half its own misses through four games, fifth in the country, though most of that came against overmatched teams.
Wake can offset it by forcing mistakes. The Deacons force turnovers on 23.5% of possessions, 58th nationally. Last season's Southern Utah team gave the ball away on 19.7% of possessions, 337th, and Davis went 0-for-8 from the field at High Point despite six assists. If Wake wins the turnover battle, the second-chance gap matters less.
Where Breland can hurt Wake
Wake defends the paint well, holding opponents to 42.3% on twos, 60th nationally. The perimeter is another story, and Southern Utah's best scorer lives there. Anthony Breland comes off the bench, uses a third of the team's possessions when he plays and has hit 47.6% of his threes. He scored 20 against Bethesda and 10 at High Point.
Jaiden Feroah, the top returner, made 41.5% of his threes last season as a full-time starter. If those two find open looks, Southern Utah can keep the margin manageable even while losing.
Pace and the total
The total sits at 156.5, up from 155.75 when our feed first logged it. Southern Utah's season pace, 29th nationally, is inflated by the blowouts. Wake plays at a deliberate 68.5 possessions per 40 minutes, 252nd. The Deacons have gone under in two of three games, and Southern Utah's game at High Point stayed under the same 156.5. Whoever sets the tempo early likely decides which side of the total this lands on.
Southern Utah Thunderbirds vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons line movement and odds
| Book | Thunderbirds ML | Deacons ML | Thunderbirds spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1000 | -3000 | +18.5 (-118) | o154.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | +1000 | -2500 | +17.5 (-112) | o155.5 (-107) |
| DraftKings | +1500 | -3600 | +18.5 (-112) | o154.5 (-105) |
| ESPN BET | +1800 | -6000 | +18.5 (-120) | o153.5 (-115) |
| Fanatics | +1500 | -3000 | +18 (-110) | o154 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +1400 | -4000 | +18.5 (-110) | o153.5 (-115) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1000 | -2500 | +17.5 (-110) | o154.5 (-115) |
| Caesars | — | — | +18.5 (-110) | o154 (-110) |
Where the money is on Southern Utah Thunderbirds vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons
On the Kalshi moneyline: Southern Utah Thunderbirds: 70% of bets, 32% of the money; Wake Forest Demon Deacons: 30% of bets, 68% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Wake Forest Demon Deacons -18.5: 17% of bets, 2% of the money; Southern Utah Thunderbirds +18.5: 83% of bets, 98% of the money.
Southern Utah Thunderbirds vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons stats (this season)
| Stat | Southern Utah Thunderbirds | Wake Forest Demon Deacons |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-1 | 2-1 |
| Adjusted offensive efficiency | 103.2 (283rd of 364) | 105.8 (219th of 364) |
| Adjusted defensive efficiency | 107.6 (205th of 364) | 105.1 (125th of 364) |
| Adjusted net efficiency | -4.3 (258th of 364) | 0.8 (164th of 364) |
| Pace | 77.8 (29th of 364) | 68.5 (253rd of 364) |
| Effective FG% | 63.2% (12th of 364) | 49.7% (243rd of 364) |
| Opponent effective FG% | 41.1% (30th of 364) | 48.6% (192nd of 364) |
| Turnover rate | 13.8% (46th of 364) | 15.9% (111th of 364) |
| Offensive rebound % | 47.6% (5th of 364) | 30.5% (250th of 364) |
| 3-point % | 37.0% (92nd of 364) | 30.7% (249th of 364) |
| Free throw rate | 28.7% (282nd of 364) | 33.7% (211th of 364) |
Key players
- Kevair Kennedy (Wake Forest): Leads Wake at 16.3 points per game and scored 20 at Vanderbilt.
- Gavin Placide (Wake Forest): Averages 14.7 points, 7.7 rebounds and 2.0 blocks, the interior presence against Southern Utah's offensive rebounding.
- Isaac Carr (Wake Forest): The lone notable returner has hit 44.4% of his threes and scored 15 against Charleston Southern.
- Jamari McDowell (Wake Forest): Back from a fall foot injury, he averages 9.0 points but is shooting 37.5% from the field.
- Anthony Breland (Southern Utah): Leads the team at 14.2 points in 14.8 minutes, with a 33.5% usage rate.
- Jaiden Feroah (Southern Utah): Pulled down 10 rebounds in 32 minutes at High Point after averaging 13.5 points last season.
- Cale Barclay (Southern Utah): Scored 10 at High Point and averages 3.8 assists as a passing forward.
- JaJuan Nicholls (Southern Utah): Averaged 11.2 points on 62.7% shooting at Tennessee Tech last season and scored 14 in the opener.
Numbers that matter
| Wake ATS record | 0-3 | The Deacons have failed to cover in every game, including at this same 18.5-point number against Charleston Southern. |
|---|---|---|
| SUU adjusted offense rank | 283rd | Adjusted for opponent strength, the third-highest scoring team in the country is a below-average offense. |
| Wake opponent 3-point % | 38.4% | Ranked 326th, this is the opening for Breland and Feroah. |
| Wake defensive rebound % | 64.8% | Ranked 302nd, the soft spot Southern Utah's offensive rebounding will attack. |
| Spread | -18.5 | Wake is favored, and the line has not moved since our feed first saw it. |
Southern Utah Thunderbirds vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons: quick answers
What was the final score of Southern Utah Thunderbirds vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons?
Southern Utah Thunderbirds 51, Wake Forest Demon Deacons 89 (final). Wake Forest Demon Deacons covered the closing spread (Southern Utah Thunderbirds +18.5). The game went under the closing total of 154.5.
Who is favored in Southern Utah Thunderbirds vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons?
Wake Forest is favored by 18.25 points (Wake Forest -18.25).
What is the over/under for Southern Utah Thunderbirds vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons?
The total is 154 points.
When is Southern Utah Thunderbirds vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons?
Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET.
Where is Southern Utah Thunderbirds vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons played?
LJVM Coliseum, Winston-Salem, NC.
Has the line moved for Southern Utah Thunderbirds vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons?
Yes: Southern Utah Thunderbirds opened +19 and is now +18.5, and the total moved from 155.5 to 154.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Southern Utah Thunderbirds vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Southern Utah Thunderbirds: 70% of bets, 32% of the money; Wake Forest Demon Deacons: 30% of bets, 68% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Wake Forest Demon Deacons -18.5: 17% of bets, 2% of the money; Southern Utah Thunderbirds +18.5: 83% of bets, 98% of the money.