Southeast Missouri State vs South Carolina prediction: Kory Mincy leads a rebuilt South Carolina against SEMO's stubborn defense

A roster built from scratch

Lamont Paris is entering his fifth season after back-to-back losing years, the latest a 13-19 finish, and he answered by replacing nearly everyone. Players on this season's roster accounted for just 10.3% of South Carolina's minutes last season and 7.4% of its points. The Gamecocks added 12 newcomers and three new assistants, and a 77-68 exhibition win over Campbell on Oct. 25 required a 10-0 run after the visitors controlled long stretches.

The shooting is the clearest upgrade. Last season's team took threes at the 80th-highest rate in Division I but made only 31.0% of them, 324th. Kory Mincy arrives from George Mason after hitting 39.1% from deep on 174 attempts, and Texas transfer Camden Heide shot 45.4% from three in a low-usage role. Drexel transfer Shane Blakeney, who averaged 14.2 points last season, gives Paris a second guard who can carry possessions.

That makes last season's South Carolina numbers a weak guide to this team. The transfers' individual lines are the better read.

SEMO's defense needs context

Southeast Missouri State went 20-13 last season behind its defense. Its raw defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions) ranked 40th nationally, and opponents posted a 47.8% effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times), 46th. Adjusted for an OVC schedule, though, that defense slid to 182nd.

The Redhawks also turned over a large share of their roster, with nine newcomers and four returnees, and Landren Blocker is the lone returning starter. Marqueas Bell, another returnee, scored 22 in an 89-81 overtime exhibition win at Evansville on Oct. 21, a game SEMO extended on Alonzo Clawson-Smith's three with six seconds left.

One carryover habit worth watching is pressure. SEMO forced turnovers on 19.1% of possessions last season, 72nd, while South Carolina's old roster protected the ball at a rate that ranked 38th. With an almost entirely new backcourt, Paris can't count on that ball security transferring.

Fouls could shape the margin

The sharpest stylistic edge sits at the free-throw line. SEMO's defense sent opponents to the line at a rate that ranked 353rd of 365 last season. Mincy shot 88.7% on free throws at George Mason, and South Carolina as a team ranked 15th nationally at the stripe. If the Redhawks' new roster fouls like the old one, a home team with good shooters can build a margin without hitting from outside.

Health in the frontcourt

South Carolina carries injury questions into its Nov. 3 opener against Stetson, five days before this game. Aleksas Bieliauskas, a Wisconsin transfer and projected starter, strained a lower leg against Campbell; Paris called him day-to-day and expected a quick return but did not commit to the opener. Duquesne transfer Jakub Nečas started in his place. Sophomore guard Grant Polk injured a lower leg and was reported in late October as expected to miss about six weeks. Blakeney returned from an ankle sprain for the Campbell game.

Even with Bieliauskas limited, South Carolina should hold a size edge: its minutes-weighted average height is 78.1 inches to SEMO's 76.4. SEMO reported no injuries. Tip time remains listed as TBA at Colonial Life Arena.