South Florida Bulls vs Saint Joseph's Hawks prediction: Saint Joseph's ball hawks test South Florida's near-perfect ball security
A rebuilt South Florida roster almost never gives the ball away, and a Saint Joseph's defense that just piled up a historic steal total needs extra possessions to cover for an offense that can't shoot.
Saint Joseph's Hawks covered the closing spread (South Florida Bulls -6.5). The game went over the closing total of 152.5.
| Spread | South Florida -7 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 148.5 |
- South Florida's shooting should create separation unless Saint Joseph's turns its pressure into transition points and extra shots.
- Sonny Wilson and the USF backcourt against a Hawks defense forcing turnovers on 24.0% of possessions.
- South Florida is favored by 7.5, up from 7. Saint Joseph's has failed to cover in both games as a big favorite.
Steals against sure hands
Saint Joseph's won ugly in overtime against Lafayette, and the way it won is the story of this game. The Hawks piled up 16 steals, the most for an SJU team in more than 20 years. South Florida is the worst possible opponent for that plan. The Bulls turn it over on just 9.8% of their possessions, 3rd-best in Division I.
The Hawks force turnovers on 24.0% of opponent trips, which ranks 56th. That is a sharp change from last season, when they ranked 315th in that stat. Donahue's group has become a pressure team, and it needs to be, because the offense can't carry a game on its own.
Wilson is the man the pressure has to crack. The Toledo transfer is averaging 8.0 assists, and he handled 10 of them at DePaul while USF clawed back. If the Hawks can't speed him into mistakes, they lose their best path to easy points.
Hawks can't find the range
Saint Joseph's is shooting 22.9% from three, 346th in the country, against Longwood and Lafayette. Khaafiq Myers, the leading scorer, hasn't made one of his six attempts. The Hawks do get to the line, ranking 50th in free throw rate (free throw attempts per shot attempt). They have given those points back by making only 58.1% of their free throws, 341st nationally.
The defense covers a lot of it. Opponents launch threes at the 13th-highest rate against the Hawks because the paint is closed. Sean Logan, the 6-11 Davidson transfer and former A-10 all-defensive pick, is blocking 6.0 shots a game. SJU's 26.3% block rate ranks 4th.
That pushes South Florida toward its strength. The Bulls are hitting 39.1% from deep. Garrett Johnson is 9 of 15 so far, including eight threes in a 26-point night at DePaul.
Mack's rebuild starts from zero
Chris Mack took over after Bryan Hodgson left for Providence, and almost nothing remains of last season's American champions. Players on this roster logged just 13.4% of last season's minutes, so last year's team numbers say little about this group. "We have one player on our roster that was part of the championship last year," Mack said. "So... we're starting from ground zero."
That one player is Josh Omojafo, now a bench piece. The new core is transfers: Wilson, Johnson and Zayden High, plus Chris Davis Jr. The rebuild already took a hit in August, when projected starter AJ Dancler was ruled out for the season after knee surgery.
The DePaul loss showed both sides of a new team. USF trailed by 19 in the second half and nearly stole it, with High limited by early foul trouble. USF's 41.5 first-half points allowed per game (318th) points to a slow start being costly again.
What the market is saying
South Florida opened at 7 on our feed and has moved to 7.5, with the total at 151.5 after first showing at 151. The Bulls are 2-0 against the spread and have gone over in both games. Saint Joseph's is 0-2 against the spread, winning by 9 and 10 as a double-digit favorite against two weak opponents.
This is the Hawks' first game away from Hagan Arena, on a neutral floor in Annapolis. The number asks whether SJU's turnover-hunting defense can survive a backcourt that doesn't cough it up.
South Florida Bulls vs Saint Joseph's Hawks line movement and odds
| Book | Bulls ML | Hawks ML | Bulls spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -275 | +220 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -295 | +225 | -6.5 (-108) | o152.5 (-107) |
| DraftKings | -285 | +230 | -6.5 (-108) | o151.5 (-115) |
| ESPN BET | -270 | +220 | -6.5 (-105) | o152.5 (+100) |
| Fanatics | -285 | +230 | -6.5 (-110) | o152.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | -275 | +220 | -6.5 (-110) | o152.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | -300 | +225 | -6.5 (-105) | o151.5 (-115) |
| Caesars | -285 | +228 | -6.5 (-110) | o152 (-110) |
Where the money is on South Florida Bulls vs Saint Joseph's Hawks
On the Kalshi moneyline: South Florida Bulls: 46% of bets, 74% of the money; Saint Joseph's Hawks: 54% of bets, 26% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: South Florida Bulls -7.5: 38% of bets, 47% of the money; Saint Joseph's Hawks +7.5: 62% of bets, 53% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 149.5: 48% of bets, 58% of the money; Under 149.5: 52% of bets, 43% of the money.
Key players
- Sonny Wilson (South Florida): The Toledo transfer is averaging 17.5 points and 8.0 assists in 35.5 minutes.
- Garrett Johnson (South Florida): He has made 9 of 15 threes, with an 85.3% effective field goal percentage.
- Zayden High (South Florida): He carries a team-high 27.7% usage rate and is shooting 65% from the field.
- Chris Davis Jr. (South Florida): He averages 16.0 points but has made just 2 of 10 threes.
- Khaafiq Myers (Saint Joseph's): He is averaging 20.5 points on a 29.1% usage rate without a made three.
- Jaiden Glover-Toscano (Saint Joseph's): He scored 22 against Longwood and averages 20.0 points with 7.0 rebounds.
- Sean Logan (Saint Joseph's): The Davidson transfer is averaging 6.0 blocks and 9.0 rebounds.
- BJ Ranson (Saint Joseph's): He is scoring 15.0 points off the bench and has hit 4 of 11 threes.
Numbers that matter
| USF turnover rate | 9.8% | Third-best in Division I, and the direct counter to SJU's pressure. |
|---|---|---|
| SJU forced turnover rate | 24.0% | Ranks 56th, after the Hawks ranked 315th in that stat last season. |
| SJU 3-point shooting | 22.9% | Ranks 346th, leaving the Hawks short of an offense to keep pace. |
| SJU block rate | 26.3% | Fourth nationally, led by Sean Logan's rim protection. |
| Spread | -7.5 | South Florida's number, up from 7 when our feed first saw the game. |
South Florida Bulls vs Saint Joseph's Hawks: quick answers
What was the final score of South Florida Bulls vs Saint Joseph's Hawks?
South Florida Bulls 80, Saint Joseph's Hawks 83 (final). Saint Joseph's Hawks covered the closing spread (South Florida Bulls -6.5). The game went over the closing total of 152.5.
Who is favored in South Florida Bulls vs Saint Joseph's Hawks?
South Florida is favored by 7 points (South Florida -7).
What is the over/under for South Florida Bulls vs Saint Joseph's Hawks?
The total is 148.5 points.
When is South Florida Bulls vs Saint Joseph's Hawks?
Wednesday, November 11, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET.
Has the line moved for South Florida Bulls vs Saint Joseph's Hawks?
Yes: South Florida Bulls opened -7 and is now -6.5, and the total moved from 151 to 152.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on South Florida Bulls vs Saint Joseph's Hawks?
On the Kalshi moneyline: South Florida Bulls: 46% of bets, 74% of the money; Saint Joseph's Hawks: 54% of bets, 26% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: South Florida Bulls -7.5: 38% of bets, 47% of the money; Saint Joseph's Hawks +7.5: 62% of bets, 53% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 149.5: 48% of bets, 58% of the money; Under 149.5: 52% of bets, 43% of the money.