South Dakota St Jackrabbits vs N Colorado Bears prediction: Northern Colorado's scorching jump shots get a real test in Rapid City
The Bears have shot like a top-10 team against soft opposition, and South Dakota State brings a stingy defense and a South Dakota crowd to a game UNC technically hosts.
| Spread | South Dakota State -2.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 150 |
- Expect SDSU to slow things down and grind; UNC needs its shooting to hold up against a defense far better than its non-Division I victims.
- UNC's ball handlers against SDSU's hands: the Bears turn it over on 19.6% of possessions, and the Jackrabbits force turnovers on 21.8%.
- The line flipped from UNC -4.5, the first number our feed saw, to SDSU -2.5, and the game is in Rapid City. The total is 150.5.
A shooting start built on mismatches
Northern Colorado has been one of the best-shooting teams in the country this month. Its effective field goal percentage (a shooting mark that counts threes 1.5 times) is 64.8%, sixth in Division I, and the Bears are hitting 45.3% from three.
Those figures lean on two home routs of opponents without adjusted ratings in our data, including a 117-64 win over Colorado College. The one real opponent told a different story: Arizona State won 90-63. Once the numbers are adjusted for opponents, UNC's net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) sits at -4.7, 265th of 364.
South Dakota State is the sternest defense the Bears have seen since that loss. Opponents are posting a 43.5% effective field goal percentage against the Jackrabbits, 62nd nationally. If UNC's shooting is real, this is where it proves it.
A home game on Jackrabbit turf
Northern Colorado is the listed home team, but the game is at The Monument in Rapid City, South Dakota, with a 4 p.m. ET tip. It is a rematch of the 2024 meeting, which UNC won 78-69 on a neutral floor.
The market has moved hard. The first line our feed recorded had UNC favored by 4.5; the Jackrabbits are now favored by 2.5.
SDSU has also given bettors reasons to trust it. The Jackrabbits are unbeaten against the spread in lined games, winning outright as an underdog both times: 68-66 at Kansas State as a 10.75-point dog, then a 12-point win over Valparaiso.
Turnovers, fouls and the pace fight
UNC wants to run, averaging 74.5 possessions per 40 minutes. SDSU plays at 67.5, 278th in the country, and the Jackrabbits will try to drag this game into the half court. The total has dipped from 151.5 when our feed first saw it to 150.5.
The clearest edge for SDSU is ball control. The Bears give it away on 19.6% of possessions, 267th, and the Jackrabbits force turnovers on 21.8% of opponent trips. Every giveaway is a possession UNC's shooters never get.
The counterweight is fouling. SDSU's opponents have a free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) of 51.4%, 345th, so the Jackrabbits hand out plenty of trips to the line. UNC has not cashed in yet, making 68.7% of its free throws.
Who carries each side
Joe Sayler, the Summit League's preseason Player of the Year, has started cold from deep, making 5 of 17 threes after shooting 41.2% from three last season. Others have covered for him. Kalen Garry scored 21 against Valparaiso and enters one point shy of 1,000 for his career. Redshirt freshman Davis Kern scored 24 in his debut at Kansas State while starting for the injured Alec Squires.
Squires, listed as day-to-day with a back injury after the Briar Cliff game, returned off the bench against Valparaiso. Jesse Van Kalsbeek, last season's NAIA player of the year, was still out through that game. Coach Bryan Petersen called him week-to-week with a back injury, and SDSU hasn't said whether he plays Saturday.
Northern Colorado is largely new, returning 25.1% of last season's minutes after losing Quinn Denker and Brock Wisne. Langston Reynolds is back after a year at Minnesota and runs the offense. Manning Shareef has been the most efficient piece off the bench, and center Hunter Caldwell has made 7 of 14 threes. No injury news has surfaced for the Bears.
South Dakota St Jackrabbits vs N Colorado Bears line movement and odds
| Book | Jackrabbits ML | Bears ML | Jackrabbits spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -155 | +120 | -2.5 (-118) | o149.5 (-118) |
| BetRivers | -175 | +138 | -3.5 (-106) | o150.5 (-110) |
| DraftKings | -155 | +130 | -2.5 (-112) | o150.5 (-105) |
| ESPN BET | -150 | +130 | -3.5 (-110) | o150.5 (-105) |
| Fanatics | -155 | +130 | -3 (-110) | o149.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | -154 | +128 | -2.5 (-120) | o149.5 (-115) |
| Hard Rock Bet | -170 | +140 | -3.5 (-105) | o150.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | -155 | +130 | -3 (-110) | o150 (-110) |
Where the money is on South Dakota St Jackrabbits vs N Colorado Bears
On the Kalshi moneyline: South Dakota St Jackrabbits: 56% of bets, 49% of the money; N Colorado Bears: 44% of bets, 51% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: South Dakota St Jackrabbits -1.5: 87% of bets, 99% of the money; N Colorado Bears +1.5: 13% of bets, 1% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 150.5: 6% of bets, 15% of the money; Under 150.5: 94% of bets, 85% of the money.
South Dakota St Jackrabbits vs N Colorado Bears stats (this season)
| Stat | South Dakota St Jackrabbits | N Colorado Bears |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-0 | 2-1 |
| Adjusted offensive efficiency | 109.1 (118th of 364) | 105.2 (234th of 364) |
| Adjusted defensive efficiency | 104.3 (97th of 364) | 109.9 (285th of 364) |
| Adjusted net efficiency | 4.8 (86th of 364) | -4.7 (265th of 364) |
| Pace | 67.5 (279th of 364) | 74.5 (62nd of 364) |
| Effective FG% | 51.7% (191st of 364) | 64.8% (6th of 364) |
| Opponent effective FG% | 43.5% (62nd of 364) | 45.4% (104th of 364) |
| Turnover rate | 14.8% (67th of 364) | 19.6% (267th of 364) |
| Offensive rebound % | 25.0% (334th of 364) | 35.1% (156th of 364) |
| 3-point % | 34.3% (159th of 364) | 45.3% (8th of 364) |
| Free throw rate | 29.0% (280th of 364) | 36.8% (164th of 364) |
Key players
- Joe Sayler (South Dakota State): He scores 13.3 points a game but is shooting 29.4% from three after making 41.2% last season.
- Kalen Garry (South Dakota State): He scored 21 against Valparaiso and enters at 999 career points.
- Davis Kern (South Dakota State): He is making 46.2% of his threes and scored 24 in his debut at Kansas State.
- Jon Mekonnen (South Dakota State): He leads the team at 14.7 points a game on 59.4% shooting.
- Langston Reynolds (Northern Colorado): He averages 5.7 assists and is shooting 56% from the field.
- Manning Shareef (Northern Colorado): He averages 11.3 points in 19.3 minutes with an offensive rating of 149.
- Hunter Caldwell (Northern Colorado): He has made 7 of 14 threes, including 3 of 8 against Arizona State.
- Andrew Crawford (Northern Colorado): He averages 7.7 rebounds and has a 68.2% effective field goal percentage.
Numbers that matter
| UNC effective FG% | 64.8% | Sixth nationally, but built mostly on two non-Division I opponents. |
|---|---|---|
| UNC adjusted net efficiency | -4.7 | Ranks 265th once opponents are accounted for, against SDSU's 86th. |
| UNC turnover rate | 19.6% | Ranks 267th, against an SDSU defense that forces turnovers on 21.8% of possessions. |
| SDSU opponent free throw rate | 51.4% | Ranks 345th, the clearest way UNC can score without its jumpers. |
| Spread | -4.5 | SDSU's current number, flipped from UNC -4.5 when our feed first saw the game. |
South Dakota St Jackrabbits vs N Colorado Bears: quick answers
What was the final score of South Dakota St Jackrabbits vs N Colorado Bears?
South Dakota St Jackrabbits 71, N Colorado Bears 46 (final).
Who is favored in South Dakota St Jackrabbits vs N Colorado Bears?
South Dakota State is favored by 2.5 points (South Dakota State -2.5).
What is the over/under for South Dakota St Jackrabbits vs N Colorado Bears?
The total is 150 points.
When is South Dakota St Jackrabbits vs N Colorado Bears?
Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET.
Where is South Dakota St Jackrabbits vs N Colorado Bears played?
Bank of Colorado Arena, Greeley, CO.
Has the line moved for South Dakota St Jackrabbits vs N Colorado Bears?
Yes: South Dakota St Jackrabbits opened +3.5 and is now -2.5, and the total moved from 151.5 to 150.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on South Dakota St Jackrabbits vs N Colorado Bears?
On the Kalshi moneyline: South Dakota St Jackrabbits: 56% of bets, 49% of the money; N Colorado Bears: 44% of bets, 51% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: South Dakota St Jackrabbits -1.5: 87% of bets, 99% of the money; N Colorado Bears +1.5: 13% of bets, 1% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 150.5: 6% of bets, 15% of the money; Under 150.5: 94% of bets, 85% of the money.