South Carolina St Bulldogs vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish prediction: Notre Dame's shooters test South Carolina State's sudden defensive turnaround
The Bulldogs are 3-0 with a defense that looks nothing like last season's, but the rebuilt Irish bring the first real shooting test.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish covered the closing spread (South Carolina St Bulldogs +27.5). The game went over the closing total of 148.5.
| Spread | Notre Dame -26.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 149.5 |
- Notre Dame's shooting and size should create separation, while SC State's pressure keeps possessions chaotic and sends the Irish to the line often.
- Braeden Smith and the Irish guards against a Bulldogs defense forcing turnovers on 27.0% of possessions, 22nd nationally.
- Notre Dame is favored by 27, up from 25 when the line first posted; the Irish have gone over the total in all three games.
A new defense, not yet tested
South Carolina State went 10-22 last season and finished 356th in net efficiency. Three games into this one, the Bulldogs are unbeaten and allowing 86.5 points per 100 possessions, 57th nationally. Opponents are posting an effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times) of 42.1%.
The question is who those opponents were. Morris College is not a Division I program. USC Upstate and Chicago State rate 291st and 337th in adjusted net efficiency. Last season's numbers are no better a guide: only 29.6% of last season's minutes are back.
Notre Dame is a different kind of exam. The Irish make 43.8% of their threes, 17th in the country, and they already beat Villanova in Rome, with Brady Koehler scoring key late baskets. Koehler has made 7 of his 10 threes. Braeden Shrewsberry, one of two returning starters, is the volume shooter and has made 12 of 28.
Steals at both ends
This could be a sloppy game in both directions. SC State's pressure is real: the Bulldogs force turnovers on 27.0% of opponent possessions. Notre Dame, rebuilt with 10 newcomers, has flipped its own defensive identity. The Irish ranked 342nd in forced turnovers last season and now sit 31st.
The driver is Braeden Smith, the Gonzaga transfer, who averages 3.7 steals and 7.0 assists. Notre Dame's steal rate ranks 14th nationally. That pressure meets a Bulldogs backcourt that coughed the ball up on 21.4% of possessions last season, 356th, though that was largely a different group of guards. Mercyhurst transfer DeShaun Jackson Jr. comes off the bench with 4.7 assists a game and a 13% usage rate.
The fouling habit survived
The fouling habit survived One SC State trait did carry over from last season: fouling. Opponents attempt free throws at a rate equal to 57.2% of their field goal attempts, 353rd nationally. Last season the Bulldogs ranked 364th in the same stat.
That favors an Irish team that shoots 76.2% at the line, 61st nationally. The exception is center Logan Duncomb. He went 9-for-9 from the field against Eastern Illinois but has made just 28.6% of his free throws, which gives SC State a reason to put him on the line rather than concede easy baskets inside.
A big number and a busy week
A big number and a busy week Notre Dame is favored by 27, and the line has moved from 25 since it first posted Wednesday morning. The total sits at 148.5. The Irish went over the total in all three games so far. SC State adds tempo: the Bulldogs play at 74 possessions per 40 minutes, 84th nationally, while Notre Dame is 267th.
Big numbers have been tricky for the Irish. They covered as 21.5-point favorites against Mercyhurst but beat Eastern Illinois 94-70 without covering. SC State covered as an underdog in both lined games. Scheduling matters too: this is the second game in three days for Notre Dame, and the Irish face top-ranked Florida at the Players Era Festival on Nov. 17. Micah Shrewsberry, in what has been called a make-or-break fourth season, was fully cleared from his Achilles injury as of Oct. 23.
South Carolina St Bulldogs vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish line movement and odds
| Book | Bulldogs ML | Irish ML | Bulldogs spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | — | — | +27.5 (-105) | o149.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | — | — | +27.5 (-107) | o148.5 (-115) |
| DraftKings | +4000 | -50000 | +27.5 (-105) | o149.5 (-115) |
| ESPN BET | — | — | +27.5 (-110) | o150.5 (-105) |
| Fanatics | +3500 | -10000 | +27.5 (-110) | o149.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | — | — | +27.5 (-110) | o148.5 (-118) |
| Hard Rock Bet | — | — | +27.5 (-105) | o148.5 (-115) |
| Caesars | — | — | +28 (-110) | o150 (-110) |
Where the money is on South Carolina St Bulldogs vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish
On the Kalshi moneyline: South Carolina St Bulldogs: 79% of bets, 6% of the money; Notre Dame Fighting Irish: 21% of bets, 94% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Notre Dame Fighting Irish -26.5: 31% of bets, 79% of the money; South Carolina St Bulldogs +26.5: 69% of bets, 21% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 149.5: 83% of bets, 96% of the money; Under 149.5: 17% of bets, 4% of the money.
Key players
- Brady Koehler (Notre Dame): Leads the Irish at 15.7 points per game and has made 7 of 10 threes.
- Braeden Smith (Notre Dame): Averages 7.0 assists and 3.7 steals with an offensive rating of 154.3.
- Logan Duncomb (Notre Dame): Scored 20 on 9-for-9 shooting last time out but is shooting 28.6% at the line.
- Braeden Shrewsberry (Notre Dame): Averages 14.7 points and has made 12 of 28 threes.
- Noah Treadwell (South Carolina State): Leads the Bulldogs at 15.7 points and made 6 of 11 threes in a 22-point game at Chicago State.
- DeShaun Jackson Jr. (South Carolina State): Averages 4.7 assists and 2.3 steals in 27.0 minutes off the bench.
- Teon Tindal (South Carolina State): Averages 9.7 points on 57.9% shooting after playing 9.4 minutes a game last season.
Numbers that matter
| Notre Dame 3-point % | 43.8% | Ranks 17th nationally, the main threat to SC State's early defensive numbers. |
|---|---|---|
| SC State opponent free throw rate | 57.2% | Ranks 353rd, a fouling habit carried over from last season's 364th-place finish. |
| SC State forced turnover rate | 27.0% | Ranks 22nd and gives the Bulldogs their best path to extra possessions. |
| Notre Dame steal rate | 17.6% | Ranks 14th, a sharp change from an Irish defense that rarely forced turnovers last season. |
| Spread | -25 | Notre Dame's line has not moved since it first posted. |
South Carolina St Bulldogs vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish: quick answers
What was the final score of South Carolina St Bulldogs vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish?
South Carolina St Bulldogs 59, Notre Dame Fighting Irish 99 (final). Notre Dame Fighting Irish covered the closing spread (South Carolina St Bulldogs +27.5). The game went over the closing total of 148.5.
Who is favored in South Carolina St Bulldogs vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish?
Notre Dame is favored by 26.5 points (Notre Dame -26.5).
What is the over/under for South Carolina St Bulldogs vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish?
The total is 149.5 points.
When is South Carolina St Bulldogs vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish?
Wednesday, November 11, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET.
Has the line moved for South Carolina St Bulldogs vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish?
Yes: South Carolina St Bulldogs opened +26.5 and is now +27.5, and the total moved from 148 to 148.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on South Carolina St Bulldogs vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish?
On the Kalshi moneyline: South Carolina St Bulldogs: 79% of bets, 6% of the money; Notre Dame Fighting Irish: 21% of bets, 94% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Notre Dame Fighting Irish -26.5: 31% of bets, 79% of the money; South Carolina St Bulldogs +26.5: 69% of bets, 21% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 149.5: 83% of bets, 96% of the money; Under 149.5: 17% of bets, 4% of the money.