South Alabama Jaguars vs North Texas Mean Green prediction: Je'Shawn Stevenson and North Texas test South Alabama's rebuilt Jaguars
South Alabama brings back almost none of last season's minutes, and its opener showed a defense still learning how to guard the arc before a trip into a Super Pit that has been built on stops.
South Alabama Jaguars covered the closing spread (South Alabama Jaguars +9.5). The game went under the closing total of 133.5.
| Spread | North Texas -9 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 133.5 |
- North Texas's defensive identity should travel better than South Alabama's new pieces; expect a grind where turnovers and free throws swing it.
- Stevenson, the American's preseason player of the year, against a Jaguars perimeter defense that Ohio shot 42.1% against from three.
- No spread or total is posted yet; South Alabama's opener closed at 154.75 and went over, and it failed to cover as a slight favorite.
A new South Alabama roster
Almost nothing about South Alabama's 21-12 team from last season is still in Mobile. Players on this roster logged just 11.6% of last season's minutes, so last season's team numbers say little about who takes the floor Saturday. Adam Olsen is at Auburn, and Chaze Harris and his 19.1 points a game from last season are gone.
The new core announced itself in the 86-77 home loss to Ohio on Nov. 2. Jalen Langsy scored 25 points while using 33% of the possessions he was on the floor for, the clear first option. Diego Roman added 19 points and five assists. Stephen Williams, one of the few returners, gave them 14 points and eight rebounds after shooting 65.7% from the field last season in a bench role. Coaches still picked the Jaguars fourth in the Sun Belt, a vote of faith in Richie Riley, now in his ninth season.
The Ohio game exposed the arc
The opener's warning sign was on defense. Ohio shot an effective field goal percentage of 63.2% (a measure where threes count 1.5 times), which ranks 332nd of 357 so far. The Bobcats took 66.7% of their shots from deep, the highest share any team has allowed, and made 42.1% of them.
North Texas is not built to punish that the same way. Last season the Mean Green ranked 321st in 3-point attempt rate and made just 29.9% of their threes, 351st nationally. If South Alabama's perimeter defense hasn't tightened, Stevenson is the one who can make it pay. He averaged 17.4 points last season but shot 30.3% from three, so the Mean Green may lean on drives instead.
Robinson's defense is the constant
Daniyal Robinson's second North Texas team returns 43.5% of last season's minutes, far more continuity than its visitor. The calling card was defense: last season's adjusted defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) ranked 41st of 365, and the Mean Green forced turnovers on 22.2% of possessions, ninth in the country.
The 122-50 opening win over Southwestern Christian says little. A sharper test is South Alabama's ball security under pressure. The Jaguars turned it over on 14.1% of possessions against Ohio, 90th nationally, a solid start for a backcourt that had never played a game together. Transfer Cash Chavis from UT Arlington and Amar Amkou, who posted 16 points and nine rebounds in the opener, add new pieces to that pressure.
Free throws and the glass
South Alabama got to the line often against Ohio, with a free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) of 51.9%, 54th nationally. It then made only 60.7% of those tries. That matters here because last season's North Texas defense fouled a lot, ranking 351st in opponent free throw rate. Free points are on offer if the Jaguars convert.
The glass is the other leak. South Alabama grabbed just 15.6% of its own misses against Ohio, 349th, and a few second chances could decide a game between two teams that combined for 115 points the last time they played.
Old rivals, thin margins
These programs shared the Sun Belt from 2000 through 2013 and renewed things last December, when North Texas won 58-57 in Mobile. South Alabama had won 14 of the 22 all-time meetings before that night, but the Mean Green have won four of the last five.
North Texas was picked seventh in the American and hosts McNeese on Thursday before this one. Tip is set for 6 p.m. ET. No line has been posted yet, so watch where it opens relative to last season's final adjusted ratings, which had North Texas 133rd and South Alabama 203rd.
South Alabama Jaguars vs North Texas Mean Green line movement and odds
| Book | Jaguars ML | Green ML | Jaguars spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +340 | -450 | +9.5 (-115) | o133.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | +330 | -455 | +8.5 (-107) | o133.5 (-110) |
| DraftKings | +340 | -440 | +9.5 (-112) | o133.5 (-110) |
| ESPN BET | +340 | -450 | +9.5 (-110) | o133.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | +340 | -500 | +9.5 (-120) | o133.5 (-115) |
| FanDuel | +330 | -430 | +8.5 (-102) | o133.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +325 | -450 | +8.5 (-105) | o133.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | +335 | -440 | +9.5 (-110) | o133.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on South Alabama Jaguars vs North Texas Mean Green
On the Kalshi moneyline: South Alabama Jaguars: 37% of bets, 6% of the money; North Texas Mean Green: 63% of bets, 94% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: North Texas Mean Green -8.5: 79% of bets, 98% of the money; South Alabama Jaguars +8.5: 21% of bets, 2% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 134.5: 58% of bets, 43% of the money; Under 134.5: 42% of bets, 57% of the money.
South Alabama Jaguars vs North Texas Mean Green stats (this season)
| Stat | South Alabama Jaguars | North Texas Mean Green |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-2 | 2-1 |
| Adjusted offensive efficiency | 108.3 (145th of 364) | 104.1 (259th of 364) |
| Adjusted defensive efficiency | 114.0 (344th of 364) | 107.6 (205th of 364) |
| Adjusted net efficiency | -5.7 (287th of 364) | -3.5 (241st of 364) |
| Pace | 62.9 (351st of 364) | 72.8 (107th of 364) |
| Effective FG% | 54.7% (123rd of 364) | 56.1% (93rd of 364) |
| Opponent effective FG% | 57.6% (340th of 364) | 44.0% (75th of 364) |
| Turnover rate | 13.8% (47th of 364) | 17.3% (163rd of 364) |
| Offensive rebound % | 27.1% (294th of 364) | 42.9% (21st of 364) |
| 3-point % | 30.4% (256th of 364) | 30.3% (260th of 364) |
| Free throw rate | 30.9% (256th of 364) | 43.9% (75th of 364) |
Key players
- Je'Shawn Stevenson (North Texas): He averaged 17.4 points last season and opened this one with 15 points and five assists in 20 minutes.
- Aeneas Alexander (North Texas): He led the opener with 22 points and nine rebounds in 20 minutes.
- Amar Amkou (North Texas): He shot 36.4% from three at Florida Atlantic last season and posted 16 points and nine rebounds in the opener.
- Jalen Langsy (South Alabama): He scored 25 points against Ohio on a 33% usage rate, making three of his nine threes.
- Diego Roman (South Alabama): He had 19 points and five assists against Ohio while shooting 77.8% from the field.
- Stephen Williams (South Alabama): He shot 65.7% from the field last season and opened this one with 14 points and eight rebounds.
Numbers that matter
| South Alabama returning minutes | 11.6% | Last season's Jaguars numbers describe a team that has largely left. |
|---|---|---|
| Opponent 3-point % vs. South Alabama | 42.1% | Ohio launched from deep at the highest rate in the country and made it work. |
| North Texas forced turnover rate, last season | 22.2% | Ninth nationally, the core of Robinson's defensive identity. |
| South Alabama free throw % | 60.7% | The Jaguars got to the line against Ohio but left points there. |
| Last meeting | 58-57 | North Texas won by one in Mobile last December. |
South Alabama Jaguars vs North Texas Mean Green: quick answers
What was the final score of South Alabama Jaguars vs North Texas Mean Green?
South Alabama Jaguars 65, North Texas Mean Green 66 (final). South Alabama Jaguars covered the closing spread (South Alabama Jaguars +9.5). The game went under the closing total of 133.5.
Who is favored in South Alabama Jaguars vs North Texas Mean Green?
North Texas is favored by 9 points (North Texas -9).
What is the over/under for South Alabama Jaguars vs North Texas Mean Green?
The total is 133.5 points.
When is South Alabama Jaguars vs North Texas Mean Green?
Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 6:00 PM ET.
Where is South Alabama Jaguars vs North Texas Mean Green played?
The Super Pit, Denton, TX.
Has the line moved for South Alabama Jaguars vs North Texas Mean Green?
Yes: South Alabama Jaguars opened +8.5 and is now +9.5, and the total moved from 136.5 to 133.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on South Alabama Jaguars vs North Texas Mean Green?
On the Kalshi moneyline: South Alabama Jaguars: 37% of bets, 6% of the money; North Texas Mean Green: 63% of bets, 94% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: North Texas Mean Green -8.5: 79% of bets, 98% of the money; South Alabama Jaguars +8.5: 21% of bets, 2% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 134.5: 58% of bets, 43% of the money; Under 134.5: 42% of bets, 57% of the money.