SIU Edwardsville vs Lipscomb prediction: Lipscomb's three-point barrage tests SIUE's stingy perimeter defense

The arc against the wall

Two teams that both went 19-13 last season got there in opposite ways. Lipscomb scored. SIUE stopped people. When they meet at Allen Arena on Saturday, Nov. 7, the question is which identity survives an offseason of roster churn.

Lipscomb built its offense around the three. Last season the Bisons took 48.2% of their shots from deep, 26th-most in Division I, and made 36.2% of them. Their effective field goal percentage, which counts a three as 1.5 made shots, was 54.9%, 52nd nationally. The ball moved, too: their assist rate ranked 15th.

SIUE's defense was built to take that away. Opponents shot 29.8% from three against the Cougars last season, 10th-best in the country, and 45.6% inside the arc, which ranked 14th. Their defense allowed 97.1 points per 100 possessions, 10th nationally. If even part of that holds, Lipscomb's volume-shooting plan will be tested.

Whose tempo wins

The pace gap is wide. Lipscomb averaged 70.8 possessions per 40 minutes last season, 44th nationally. SIUE played at 66.1, which ranked 267th.

That contrast showed up on the scoreboard. The Bisons scored 79.6 points per game last season. SIUE allowed only 64.7, eighth-fewest in the country. A slow, half-court game suits the Cougars, whose offense was their weak side last season: their 2-point percentage ranked 280th. A track meet favors Lipscomb, whose defense allowed opponents to shoot 53.1% inside the arc, 272nd nationally.

Turnovers could decide who sets the tempo. SIUE's steal rate ranked 66th last season, which gives the Cougars a way to create easy offense.

Free throws and the whistle

Neither team lived at the line last season, and that matters more for SIUE. Lipscomb's free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) ranked 356th, a byproduct of all those jumpers. The Bisons also kept opponents off the stripe, ranking 37th in opponent free throw rate.

SIUE's problem was making them. The Cougars shot 67.5% from the line last season, 335th nationally. In a low-possession game that stays close late, misses at the stripe would hurt.

New faces, old numbers

All of the numbers above come from last season, and both rosters have changed. SIUE returns seven players and adds eight newcomers: four freshmen and four transfers. Gianni Cobb (Northern Illinois), Gestin Liberis (Saint Francis) and Jacob Martin (Alabama) are among the Division I additions. Brian Barone's program is one year removed from its 2025 OVC Tournament title and first NCAA tournament trip as a Division I school, which ended in a first-round loss to Houston.

Lipscomb, in its second season under Kevin Carroll, added Central Arkansas transfer Truman Byrne and a freshman class that includes Vuk Visnijic. The schedule around this game is busy. The Bisons visit Iowa on Nov. 3, four days earlier, and play Belmont on Nov. 10. Saturday falls between a power-conference road trip and a home date with Belmont, and the home crowd will have to supply the energy.