Samford vs UNLV prediction: UNLV waits on AJ Storr and a depleted rotation before Samford

Eight bodies and a court case

UNLV's season opener against Samford on Saturday, Nov. 7 (4:00 PM ET, Thomas & Mack Center) comes with a question nobody can answer yet: how many of the Runnin' Rebels' best players will be in uniform?

AJ Storr, the Ole Miss transfer, remains ineligible after a Tennessee court ruling. He is one of 19 plaintiffs in that case who were ruled ineligible once a stay was issued. Sophomore forward Tyrin Jones, a preseason all-conference pick like Storr, watched the Oct. 24 exhibition against BYU from the bench. Tyler Harris and Isaac Williamson also sat out, and no cause or timeline has been given for any of the three. UNLV had eight players available that night, seven of them on scholarship plus walk-on Jalen Cunningham.

Josh Pastner, in his second season, said he hopes to have Jones, Harris and Williamson back, along with Storr "depending if his lawyers can deliver for him." As of Oct. 24, none of the four was confirmed for the opener.

The short-handed group still pushed No. 25 BYU, leading by as many as 12 in the first half before losing 89-77. UCLA transfer Sebastian Mack scored 26 but didn't score after the 9:37 mark of the second half. That pattern is the risk for UNLV on Nov. 7: a thin rotation can have trouble sustaining its scoring late.

Last season's numbers, with caveats

Both programs went 18-something last season, but the context differs. UNLV finished 18-17 and ranked 104th in adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions scored minus allowed, adjusted for opponents). Samford finished 18-14, and its raw net efficiency ranked 136th. After adjusting for schedule, the Bulldogs fell to 214th. The record looked better than the team underneath it.

Neither roster resembles last season's closely. Samford brings back 11 players but only two starters, Cade Norris and Isaiah Campbell-Finch. Lennie Acuff added Cornell transfer Cooper Noard, a fifth-year guard and preseason All-SoCon pick. Samford was picked fourth in the SoCon, and UNLV was picked fourth in the Mountain West. Samford's only exhibition was a 71-61 win over Alabama A&M, so there is little evidence on how the new group fits together.

Samford lives behind the arc

If Samford's identity carries over, it will shoot often from three. Last season 46.5% of its shots were threes, 39th-most in Division I, and it made 35.8% of them (71st). Its effective field goal percentage (which counts threes 1.5 times) ranked 90th.

That style targets UNLV's weak spot. The Rebels allowed 35.1% from three last season, 273rd nationally. Inside, UNLV had the edge: its block rate ranked 24th, and its minutes-weighted height of 77.4 inches compares with Samford's 75.3. A UNLV team missing Jones and Harris gives up some of that size.

Whistles, turnovers and the glass

Two possession battles stand out from last season's data.

The first is fouls. UNLV's opponent free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) ranked 352nd, among the worst in the country, and Samford's own free throw rate ranked 41st. That suggests plenty of trips to the line. Neither team made the most of them: Samford shot 68.9% (301st) and UNLV 68.0% (324th). In a close finish, that adds variance for both sides.

The second is extra possessions. Samford rarely gave the ball away, with a turnover rate that ranked 9th, and its defensive rebounding ranked 12th. The Bulldogs gave up second chances rarely but forced almost nothing; their forced turnover rate ranked 354th. A thin UNLV rotation won't be pressured into mistakes. Its points will have to come from half-court execution, and those were the minutes where it stalled against BYU.