Saint Mary's vs Nevada prediction: Saint Mary's rebuilt Gaels test their new pieces against Nevada at Tahoe
Mickey McConnell's first marquee game puts a nearly new Saint Mary's roster against a Nevada team that lives at the free-throw line, on a neutral floor near Lake Tahoe.
- A slow, grinding game is likely; both teams ranked near the bottom nationally in pace last season, though Saint Mary's has a new coach.
- Nevada's foul-drawing against a Saint Mary's defense that kept opponents off the line last season, now with mostly new personnel.
- No line is posted yet. Last season's adjusted net ratings had Saint Mary's 23rd and Nevada 69th, but the Gaels return little.
A program starts over
For a quarter century, Saint Mary's basketball meant Randy Bennett. That era is over. Mickey McConnell is the program's 27th head coach, and his roster barely resembles the one that went 27-6 last season and won the WCC.
The Gaels bring back just 29.2% of last season's minutes. Paulius Murauskas (18.4 points per game) and Dillan Shaw left for Arizona State. Mikey Lewis went to Texas, and center Andrew McKeever went to Iowa. Last season's final adjusted net efficiency, points per 100 possessions adjusted for opponents, ranked Saint Mary's 23rd of 365. That rating describes a team that no longer exists in most of its rotation.
What remains starts with junior guard Joshua Dent, the only returning first-team All-WCC player. He played 36.2 minutes a night last season, averaged 5.6 assists and made 40.4% of his threes. The rest of the story is new: Darius Bivins, the first McDonald's All-American in program history, freshman Cooper Lewis from Lehi, Utah, and newcomer Vangelis Zougris. The coaches still picked Saint Mary's second in the WCC.
Early returns from October
The only live look at either team came in exhibitions. Saint Mary's lost 97-89 to Utah State on Oct. 17 in a shootout that ran well outside the Gaels' usual style. Bivins sparked a 12-0 run in about 90 seconds, and Mantas Juzenas shone. Juzenas was a seldom-used guard last season, but he made 48.4% of his threes in limited minutes.
Nevada beat Utah 71-61 at Lawlor Events Center on Oct. 19. Steve Alford brings back four key contributors, Elijah Price, Vaughn Weems, Peyton White and Myles Walker, alongside 10 newcomers. Price and Weems made the preseason All-Mountain West team. The Wolf Pack were picked third in the league and drew two votes in the preseason AP Top 25.
Nevada's trip to the line
Nevada's clearest identity last season was getting fouled. Its free throw rate, free-throw attempts per field-goal attempt, was 44.8%, fifth in the country. That covered for a weak shooting profile; the Wolf Pack's effective field goal percentage, which counts threes 1.5 times, ranked 270th.
Saint Mary's defense was built to deny exactly that. Last season's Gaels held opponents to a 25.7% free throw rate, 15th nationally, and their opponent effective field goal percentage ranked 18th. The question is whether McConnell's new group defends with the same discipline. If Nevada lives at the stripe, the Gaels' rebuilt rotation faces foul trouble it hasn't had to manage yet.
Size and the glass
Rebounding carried Saint Mary's last season. The Gaels grabbed 37.2% of their own misses, 18th in the country, and ranked sixth in defensive rebound rate. Much of that muscle left with McKeever, who averaged 9.1 rebounds.
Nevada has the size edge on this roster: its minutes-weighted height is 77.1 inches to Saint Mary's 75.8. The Wolf Pack also blocked shots well last season, ranking 58th in block rate. A guard-heavy Gaels group may have to win with shooting instead of second chances.
A rivalry on new ground
These programs have a long history; Saint Mary's leads the series 52-33, though counts of total meetings vary. The last one was a 68-63 Gaels win at Chase Center in 2019-20. This one is the first men's college basketball game at the Tahoe Blue Event Center, a neutral site near Lake Tahoe.
The tip time is unsettled. Saint Mary's announced 1:30 p.m., while other schedules list 4:30 p.m. or TBD. The game may also be part of a multi-game event that hasn't been confirmed.
What to watch: - How much Bivins and the freshmen play next to Dent - Nevada's free-throw attempts in the first half - Whether McConnell keeps the slow tempo; last season's Gaels ranked 364th in pace
Key players
- Joshua Dent (Saint Mary's): Last season he started all 33 games, averaged 13.2 points and made 91.8% of his free throws.
- Darius Bivins (Saint Mary's): He sparked a 12-0 run in about 90 seconds in the Oct. 17 exhibition against Utah State.
- Mantas Juzenas (Saint Mary's): He shone against Utah State after making 48.4% of his threes in a reserve role last season.
Numbers that matter
| Saint Mary's returning minutes | 29.2% | Most of last season's 27-6 rotation is gone, so last season's team numbers are a weak guide. |
|---|---|---|
| Nevada free throw rate, last season | 5th | The Wolf Pack's main offensive weapon was drawing fouls. |
| Saint Mary's opponent free throw rate, last season | 15th | The Gaels kept opponents off the line, but with largely different players. |
| Saint Mary's pace, last season | 364th | One of the slowest teams in the country, under a coach who has since left. |
| Minutes-weighted height | 77.1 | Nevada's figure in inches, against 75.8 for Saint Mary's. |
Saint Mary's vs Nevada: quick answers
When is Saint Mary's vs Nevada?
Sunday, November 8, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET.