Sacramento State vs Santa Clara prediction: Christian Hammond leads a reloading Santa Clara against Bibby's new-look Hornets
The WCC's preseason favorite opens with its best scorer back and its frontcourt gone, against a Sacramento State team built to slow the game down at the foul line.
- Santa Clara's returning guards should control a game that tilts toward threes, unless Sacramento State turns it into a free-throw contest.
- Hammond and the Broncos' perimeter attack against a Hornets defense that conceded a heavy share of threes last season.
- No spread or total is posted yet; last season's adjusted net ratings put Santa Clara 40th and Sacramento State 268th.
A favorite rebuilt around guards
Santa Clara enters this season with expectations the program hasn't carried in three decades. The Broncos were voted the preseason WCC favorite with nine first-place votes, the first time since 1995-96 they have held that honor. Herb Sendek, in his 11th year, brings back a team that finished 26-9 last season and took Kentucky to overtime in an 89-84 NCAA Tournament loss.
The returners are mostly guards. Players on this season's roster logged 65.0% of last season's minutes. Christian Hammond is the centerpiece. He averaged 15.6 points and shot 39.3% from three last season. Jake Ensminger barely needed the ball, and his offensive rating of 139.3 (points produced per 100 possessions used) says he made the most of it when he got it. David Castillo arrives from Kansas State.
The losses sit up front. Bukky Oboye left for Auburn, and Allen Graves is gone too. Elijah Mahi, who scored 20 against Kentucky, was seeking a fifth-year eligibility waiver as of around Oct. 20. His status is unsettled.
Threes against a soft perimeter
Last season Santa Clara took 45.1% of its shots from three, 65th-most in Division I, and its effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times) ranked 65th. That style lines up with a Sacramento State weakness. The Hornets allowed opponents to take 43.5% of their shots from deep, 57th-most nationally.
Inside wasn't much better for the Hornets. Opponents made 55.0% of their twos against them, which ranked 325th. The question for Santa Clara is who scores inside now. Its 36.4% offensive rebound rate (share of its own misses it recovered), 29th nationally, came largely from players who are no longer on the roster. A guard-heavy lineup may live even more on the perimeter.
Sacramento State's path: the foul line
The Hornets' best numbers from last season point to a plan. Their free throw rate (free throws attempted per field goal attempt) was 40.7%, 48th nationally, and they made 77.7% at the line, 20th. Santa Clara's defense ranked 264th in opponent free throw rate. Sacramento State could keep this close by getting to the stripe.
Ball security is the other piece. Last season Sacramento State turned it over on 14.3% of possessions, 31st-best in the country. Santa Clara's steal rate ranked 19th. Whether the Broncos' guards can still create turnovers will go a long way toward deciding how lopsided this gets.
A new league, a new roster
Little of the team that went 10-21 last season is likely to be on the floor. Mike Bibby is in his second year, and Sacramento State joins the Big West after 30 years in the Big Sky. Center Jeremiah Cherry went to San Diego State and forward Mark Lavrenov to New Mexico State. Mikey Williams is back. Prophet Johnson was seeking an extra year of eligibility as of May, and no ruling has surfaced since.
The newcomers include junior center Ridvan Tutic, junior forward Osiris Grady and freshman guard Ashton Pierce, the highest-rated freshman signee in school history. With that much churn, last season's team numbers are a loose guide for the Hornets.
The game is part of the Palm Springs Holiday Classic, and it is Sacramento State's first trip to Santa Clara since 2022. Tip time is still listed as TBA.
What to watch
- Tempo. Sacramento State ranked 12th in pace last season. Santa Clara sat 111th. Who sets the speed will shape the scoring.
- Mahi's status. A ruling on his waiver would bring back a starter and change Santa Clara's frontcourt.
- Glass work without Oboye. Watch whether Santa Clara still crashes the offensive boards with a smaller lineup.
Key players
- Christian Hammond (Santa Clara): Started all 34 games last season and averaged 15.6 points on 39.3% three-point shooting.
- Jake Ensminger (Santa Clara): Posted a 66.1% effective field goal percentage last season on a 9.8% usage rate.
- Sash Gavalyugov (Santa Clara): Attempted 187 threes last season, making 35.8%, mostly off the bench.
- Brenton Knapper (Santa Clara): Started 33 games last season but shot 27.4% from three.
Numbers that matter
| Santa Clara adjusted net rating | 19.3 | Last season's final opponent-adjusted margin per 100 possessions ranked 40th nationally. |
|---|---|---|
| Sacramento State adjusted net rating | -9.2 | Last season's final mark ranked 268th, though the roster has turned over heavily since. |
| Santa Clara returning minutes | 65.0% | Most of it belongs to guards. The departures hit the frontcourt hardest. |
| Sacramento State free throw rate | 40.7% | Ranked 48th last season and gives the Hornets their likeliest path to keeping the game close. |
| Sacramento State opponent 3PA rate | 43.5% | Opponents shot heavily from deep against the Hornets last season, which suits Santa Clara's style. |
Sacramento State vs Santa Clara: quick answers
When is Sacramento State vs Santa Clara?
Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET.