Princeton vs Siena prediction: Siena's rebuilt roster gets its first test from a fully intact Princeton

Siena starts almost from zero

Siena went 23-12 last season, won the Metro Conference and nearly took down top-seeded Duke as a 16 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Very little of that team is left. Players on this season's roster logged just 21.6% of last season's minutes and 17.3% of its points.

The exits hurt most at the top. Gavin Doty, who averaged 18.0 points with an offensive rating of 125.2, followed former coach Gerry McNamara to Syracuse, as did Francis Folefac and Tasman Goodrick. Antonio Chandler, an efficient interior finisher with a 64.5% effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times), is also gone.

Nevada Smith, a former Marquette assistant hired April 1, inherits 11 newcomers: three transfers and eight freshmen. Smith has said Gannon transfer Pace Prosser could be the leading scorer. This is Smith's first season, so last season's Siena numbers describe a different team with a different coach.

Princeton bets on continuity

Princeton announced that its entire 2025-26 roster returns, plus four freshmen, for Mitch Henderson's 15th season. That stability is the Tigers' clearest edge in an early-November game, though what returns went 9-20 and finished 246th of 365 in last season's adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents).

The identity is the three-pointer. Princeton took 44.6% of its shots from deep last season, 78th nationally. Siena's defense was good at running teams off that plan, holding opponents to 32.3% from three. Whether that holds with a new staff and mostly new defenders is the most interesting unknown of the game.

This is Princeton's first road trip of the season.

The paint is where Princeton broke down

Princeton's defensive problem last season was inside. Opponents made 55.2% of their twos, which ranked 328th, and the Tigers' block rate ranked 333rd. They also forced turnovers at one of the lowest rates in the country.

That would usually favor a team that pounds the paint, but Siena's best interior scorers left. The Saints' remaining shooters struggled last season. Brendan Coyle, the most experienced returner, made 30% of 237 three-point attempts. VMI transfer Tan Yildizoglu, who averaged 10.2 points and 4.6 assists, shot 27.1% from deep. Siena as a team ranked 334th in three-point percentage, so its newcomers will need to find offense near the rim.

Princeton did one thing well defensively: it finished possessions, grabbing 72.2% of opponents' misses, 68th nationally.

Few possessions, plenty of unknowns

Both programs played slowly last season. Siena averaged 61.8 possessions per 40 minutes, 363rd of 365, and Princeton ranked 339th. A new coach could change Siena's pace, but nothing has been announced about the system yet.

In a slow game, free throws carry weight. Siena made 77.1% at the line last season, 27th nationally, and kept opponents off the line, ranking 31st in opponent free throw rate. Again, those were last season's players.

Health questions linger

Siena's last health news dates from the Sept. 22 practice, when Owen Schlager rolled an ankle and Coyle was hit in the right thumb but kept practicing. Twelve of 13 scholarship players practiced that day, and no later update has come out. Reid Ducharme missed all of last season with a shoulder injury; Smith expects a big year from him, but his current health hasn't been confirmed.

For Princeton, Jack Stanton broke his foot in February and missed the rest of last season. He has been described as returning from the injury, though Princeton hasn't announced his status.

The game opens a Siena doubleheader at MVP Arena, with the women's team facing Binghamton afterward.