Portland State vs Seattle U prediction: Portland State's rebuilt champions take on Seattle U's turnover-hungry defense
The Big Sky title holders return almost none of last season's minutes, and the Redhawks' havoc defense is a harsh test for a backcourt still learning to play together.
- Expect a grinding, defense-first game in which Seattle U's pressure tests a Portland State roster that is almost entirely new.
- Koren Johnson and the new Vikings guards against a Seattle U defense that ranked 11th in forced turnover rate last season.
- No spread or total is posted yet; last season's final adjusted net ratings had Seattle U 110th and Portland State 146th.
A champion starting over
Portland State won the Big Sky regular season last spring, sealing the title with an 84-60 rout of Weber State. Almost nobody from that team is still here. Players on this season's roster accounted for 3.7% of last season's minutes and 2.4% of its points.
The losses are the whole core. Terri Miller Jr. averaged 19.1 points and Jaylin Henderson 18.2, and both started every game they played. Keyon Kensie Jr. and rim-runner Tre-Vaughn Minott, who pulled down 8.8 rebounds a night, are gone too. Big Sky Coach of the Year Jase Coburn rebuilt with 12 newcomers, a mix of international signees and domestic transfers.
League coaches still tied the Vikings for fourth in the preseason poll, and the media picked them fifth. That is faith in Coburn more than in any stat line. Last season's Portland State defense ranked 33rd in efficiency, but that number describes a group that no longer exists.
New guards, old problem
The headliner is Koren Johnson, a former Pac-12 Sixth Man of the Year and a preseason all-Big Sky pick. His line last season at Ole Miss was much quieter: 1.8 points in 9.6 minutes a game, with 6 makes on 31 threes. Emil Skytt arrives from North Dakota State after an efficient bench season, and Pacific transfer KC Ibekwe is a center who looked for his shot often in limited minutes.
That is a lot of unfamiliar ballhandling to bring into the Redhawk Center. Seattle U's defense was built to punish exactly that last season. The Redhawks forced turnovers on 21.4% of opponent possessions, 11th in Division I, and blocked 13.7% of opponents' two-point tries, 17th. Their defensive efficiency, points allowed per 100 possessions, ranked 11th. If the Vikings' guards haven't settled by their second game, this is where it shows.
Where Seattle U's points come from
The Redhawks went 21-14 last season while scoring like a bottom-tier offense. They ranked 309th in offensive efficiency, and their offensive rebound rate, the share of their own misses they recover, sat 338th. They won by defending, not by grinding out extra possessions.
The first look at this season's group was encouraging. Seattle U won an exhibition at Oregon 71-65 on Oct. 15. Scoring 71 on the road at Oregon doesn't fix a ranking, but it suggests the offense may not need to be great. Against a Portland State frontcourt that lost Minott, the Redhawks' usual reluctance to crash the glass may cost them less than it did last season.
Homecoming and the market
This is Seattle U's home debut and the capstone of its Homecoming week, a non-conference game with a crowd behind the hosts. Portland State will have played its own home opener on Nov. 3, a night that also celebrates last season's Big Sky title.
The last meeting went to Seattle U, 91-74 at home in December 2024. Seattle U's schedule lists a 7 p.m. Pacific tip, while other listings still show it as to be determined.
No spread or total has been posted. When one appears, the baseline is last season's final adjusted ratings, which are opponent-adjusted points per 100 possessions. Seattle U finished with a net of 5.5 (110th) and Portland State 1.9 (146th). The Vikings' roster churn makes their number the shakier of the two.
Key players
- Koren Johnson (Portland State): The preseason all-Big Sky pick averaged just 1.8 points and shot 19.4% from three at Ole Miss last season.
- Emil Skytt (Portland State): He posted a 58.6% effective field goal percentage in 12.1 minutes a game at North Dakota State last season.
- KC Ibekwe (Portland State): He averaged 3.8 points at Pacific last season on a 23% usage rate, high for a reserve.
Numbers that matter
| Portland State returning minutes | 3.7% | Nearly the entire rotation from last season's Big Sky regular-season champions is gone. |
|---|---|---|
| Seattle U forced turnover rate (last season) | 21.4% | It ranked 11th nationally, a real threat to a Vikings backcourt built almost entirely from newcomers. |
| Seattle U offensive efficiency rank (last season) | 309th | The Redhawks won 21 games despite an offense near the bottom of Division I. |
| Seattle U block rate (last season) | 13.7% | It ranked 17th, making the paint a tough place for a Portland State team that lost its starting center. |
Portland State vs Seattle U: quick answers
When is Portland State vs Seattle U?
Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET.