Pepperdine Waves vs Sam Houston St Bearkats prediction: The market trusts Pepperdine's rebuild. Huntsville gets the first real test.
A Pepperdine team that kept almost nothing from a 9-23 season is laying points on the road against last season's NIT team, and its only Division I evidence is a one-point loss at Cornell.
Sam Houston St Bearkats covered the closing spread (Pepperdine Waves -2.5). The game went over the closing total of 159.5.
| Spread | Pepperdine -3 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 159.75 |
- Expect a fast game with plenty of extra shots, decided by Sam Houston's ball security and which team wins the offensive glass.
- Petar Majstorovic, shooting 72.4% from the field, against a Bearkats frontcourt anchored by shot-blocking transfer Enel St. Bernard.
- The line moved from pick'em to Pepperdine -2, and the total sits at 160.25 against a Sam Houston pace ranked 7th.
A line built on faith
Judge this game by last season and it isn't close. Pepperdine went 9-23 and finished 270th in adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents). Sam Houston finished second in Conference USA and reached the NIT. Yet the line has moved from pick'em to Pepperdine by 2 since Tuesday, with the visitors favored in Huntsville.
The reason is that neither roster resembles last year's. Pepperdine returns just 5.1% of last season's minutes under first-year coach Griff Aldrich, who arrived in March after a season as Virginia's associate head coach. Sam Houston kept more, but lost Kashie Natt and Jacob Walker to Oklahoma State. Last season's ratings are a weak guide for both, and close to useless for the Waves.
The current evidence is thin. Pepperdine's only Division I game was an 86-85 loss at Cornell as a favorite, with the Waves scoring 85. Sam Houston lost 96-74 at Alabama but covered a huge spread.
Pepperdine's transfers carry it
Pepperdine's season numbers look gaudy, but two of its three games were blowouts of La Sierra and Bethesda, opponents outside Division I. Read the individual lines instead.
Petar Majstorovic, a Long Beach State transfer, leads the Waves with 18.0 points per game and has made 72.4% of his shots. Jahari Williamson brings the most proven skill: he hit 44.5% from three at Kent State last season. Alex Constanza is the wild card off the bench, with a team-high usage rate and 25 points at Cornell. Evan Haywood starts but has made only 29.2% of his threes.
Aldrich said after the La Sierra win that his team has significant room to grow, especially on defense. Cornell scoring 86 on them backs him up.
Sam Houston's sloppy sprint
The Bearkats want to run. Their pace (possessions per 40 minutes) ranks 7th nationally, and that tempo explains a total above 160. The cost has been the ball: Sam Houston is turning it over on 25.0% of possessions, 349th in Division I. Much of that came against Alabama, but Pepperdine's guards have been active, with Williamson averaging 3.0 steals.
Sam Houston makes up for it on the glass. Chris Mudge's teams crash the offensive boards, and last season's Bearkats ranked 14th in offensive rebound rate (share of their own misses they grab back). Last season's Pepperdine ranked 323rd in defensive rebounding, and only a few of those players remain. This year's Waves have yet to show they can hold the defensive glass against a Division I team.
Free throws could settle it
If this stays close, the foul line matters. Pepperdine has lived there, with a free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) of 49.7%. Sam Houston has made just 54.5% of its free throws, 355th nationally, a real liability in a game priced at 2.
The Bearkats' best answer is perimeter shooting. Jacobe Coleman, a preseason All-CUSA pick, is making 43.8% of his threes, and newcomer Aidan McDowell adds 14.0 points per game. Point guard Justin Begg missed the end of last season but started both games this year. His 20 minutes against Howard Payne came in a blowout, and no reason was given. His eight assists that night show what he gives Sam Houston's offense.
Pepperdine Waves vs Sam Houston St Bearkats line movement and odds
| Book | Waves ML | Bearkats ML | Waves spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -155 | +125 | -2.5 (-115) | o159.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | -150 | +120 | -2.5 (-110) | o160.5 (-108) |
| DraftKings | -155 | +130 | -2.5 (-115) | o159.5 (-115) |
| ESPN BET | -150 | +130 | -3.5 (-105) | o159.5 (-115) |
| Fanatics | -150 | +125 | -2.5 (-115) | o160 (-110) |
| FanDuel | -154 | +128 | -3.5 (-105) | o159.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | -150 | +120 | -2.5 (-115) | o159.5 (-115) |
| Caesars | -155 | +130 | -3 (-110) | o160 (-110) |
Where the money is on Pepperdine Waves vs Sam Houston St Bearkats
On the Kalshi moneyline: Pepperdine Waves: 65% of bets, 58% of the money; Sam Houston St Bearkats: 35% of bets, 42% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Pepperdine Waves -1.5: 40% of bets, 31% of the money; Sam Houston St Bearkats +1.5: 60% of bets, 69% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 159.5: 71% of bets, 71% of the money; Under 159.5: 29% of bets, 29% of the money.
Key players
- Petar Majstorovic (Pepperdine): Leads the Waves at 18.0 points per game on 72.4% shooting.
- Jahari Williamson (Pepperdine): Shot 44.5% from three at Kent State last season and is at 42.1% this year.
- Alex Constanza (Pepperdine): Carries a 31.5% usage rate off the bench and scored 25 at Cornell.
- Jacobe Coleman (Sam Houston): Averages 14.5 points and is shooting 43.8% from three.
- Justin Begg (Sam Houston): Averaging 6.0 assists after missing the end of last season.
- Aidan McDowell (Sam Houston): Second on the team at 14.0 points per game, with 18 against Howard Payne.
- Enel St. Bernard (Sam Houston): Averages 1.5 blocks and 2.0 steals, the Bearkats' top interior defender.
Numbers that matter
| Pepperdine spread | -2 | Moved from pick'em since Tuesday, toward the road team. |
|---|---|---|
| Pepperdine returning minutes | 5.1% | Almost nothing remains from last season's 9-23 team, so last season's ratings say little. |
| Sam Houston turnover rate | 349th | The Bearkats' worst habit, and costly if Pepperdine's guards keep getting steals. |
| Sam Houston free throw % | 54.5% | Ranks 355th, a problem in a game the market prices as close. |
| Sam Houston pace rank | 7th | Explains a total of 160.25. |
Pepperdine Waves vs Sam Houston St Bearkats: quick answers
What was the final score of Pepperdine Waves vs Sam Houston St Bearkats?
Pepperdine Waves 77, Sam Houston St Bearkats 85 (final). Sam Houston St Bearkats covered the closing spread (Pepperdine Waves -2.5). The game went over the closing total of 159.5.
Who is favored in Pepperdine Waves vs Sam Houston St Bearkats?
Pepperdine is favored by 3 points (Pepperdine -3).
What is the over/under for Pepperdine Waves vs Sam Houston St Bearkats?
The total is 159.75 points.
When is Pepperdine Waves vs Sam Houston St Bearkats?
Wednesday, November 11, 2026 at 7:30 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Pepperdine Waves vs Sam Houston St Bearkats?
Yes: Pepperdine Waves opened +1.5 and is now -2.5, and the total is still 159.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Pepperdine Waves vs Sam Houston St Bearkats?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Pepperdine Waves: 65% of bets, 58% of the money; Sam Houston St Bearkats: 35% of bets, 42% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Pepperdine Waves -1.5: 40% of bets, 31% of the money; Sam Houston St Bearkats +1.5: 60% of bets, 69% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 159.5: 71% of bets, 71% of the money; Under 159.5: 29% of bets, 29% of the money.