Pennsylvania Quakers vs Saint Joseph's Hawks prediction: Penn's shooters must fire over Saint Joseph's shot-blocking wall
Penn can't finish inside and Saint Joseph's blocks nearly everything near the rim, so this Big 5 game likely turns on Penn's jump shooting.
Saint Joseph's Hawks covered the closing spread (Pennsylvania Quakers +3.5). The game went over the closing total of 151.5.
| Spread | Saint Joseph's -3.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 151.5 |
- Expect a low-efficiency grind decided by turnovers and threes, with Saint Joseph's protecting the ball and Penn needing its shooters to stay hot.
- TJ Power and Michael Zanoni shooting from the perimeter against a Hawks defense that dares opponents to shoot threes and then contests them.
- Saint Joseph's is favored by 4.5, a number that hasn't moved. Both teams are 1-2 against the spread through three games.
Nowhere to go inside
Penn's biggest problem this season is finishing. The Quakers make 39.2% of their two-point shots, 354th of 364 Division I teams. That is a terrible profile to bring into Hagan Arena, because Saint Joseph's has the second-best block rate in the country at 26.4% of opponents' two-point attempts.
Most of that comes from Sean Logan, the Davidson transfer who is swatting 5.7 shots a game. Opponents have read the scouting report. They take 51.6% of their shots from three against the Hawks, 21st most nationally, and make only 26.8% of them.
That leaves Penn's two shooters to carry the offense. Power has made 10 of 23 threes, and Zanoni has made 9 of 18. Penn shot 38.4% from three last season, 12th nationally, and is at 35.4% (123rd) this year, so its shooting is real. If those two get clean looks, Penn can stay close. If the Hawks run them off the line and into Logan, Penn's offense has no fallback.
The possession battle
Saint Joseph's most reliable edge is ball security. The Hawks turn it over on 11.3% of possessions, sixth in the country, and they force turnovers on 26.2% of opponent trips, 20th. Turnover rate is simply giveaways per 100 possessions.
Penn can also pressure the ball. Its steal rate of 14.4% ranks 53rd, and Power averages 2.7 steals. But the Quakers haven't turned those steals into stops: opponents post a 55.2% effective field goal percentage against them (a shooting measure that counts threes as 1.5 makes), which ranks 316th. Penn plays fast, at 78.7 possessions per 40 minutes (17th most). A quick game with lots of live-ball turnovers suits the team that protects the ball, and so far that is Saint Joseph's.
Free points left behind
The Hawks get to the line, drawing 48.5 free-throw attempts per 100 field-goal tries, 47th nationally. They miss a lot once they get there, shooting 61.5% (333rd). Penn is not much better at 64.2%, and Power has made just 53.8% of his attempts. In a game the market expects to be close, the team that makes its free throws late could cover or fail to cover the spread on that alone.
A rebuild against a returning core
These rosters are built very differently. Penn returns 77.6% of last season's minutes and was picked to win the Ivy League this season. Saint Joseph's returns only 36.7%, after being picked sixth of 14 in the Atlantic 10.
The Hawks' guards have still produced. Khaafiq Myers scores 18.7 a game despite making 2 of 11 threes, and BJ Ranson went 6 of 9 from deep in the win over South Florida.
Penn lost leading scorer Ethan Roberts, who is now at Notre Dame, and added Sir Mohammed from the Irish. Mohammed scored 21 at Navy. The bigger question is AJ Levine, who was hurt while being fouled late in the Navy loss. No update on his status had surfaced as of that Nov. 11 report. Losing Penn's best playmaker would put even more of the offense on Power.
What the line says
The spread has held at Saint Joseph's -4.5 since our feed first listed the game. The total has ticked up from 152.5 to 153.5. The opponent-adjusted ratings see two closely matched teams: the Hawks rank 206th in net efficiency and Penn ranks 221st.
The recent results point in different directions. Penn lost 81-76 at Navy, a team ranked 339th in adjusted net efficiency, as an 8.5-point favorite. The Hawks failed to cover big numbers against Longwood and Lafayette, then beat South Florida 83-80 as 7-point underdogs. Penn won last season's meeting 83-74.
Pennsylvania Quakers vs Saint Joseph's Hawks line movement and odds
| Book | Quakers ML | Hawks ML | Quakers spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +140 | -180 | — | o151.5 (-115) |
| BetRivers | +135 | -175 | +3.5 (-118) | o151.5 (-115) |
| DraftKings | +145 | -175 | +3.5 (-108) | o151.5 (-110) |
| ESPN BET | +150 | -175 | +4.5 (-115) | o151.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | +145 | -175 | +3.5 (-105) | o151.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +150 | -182 | +3.5 (-102) | o152.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +135 | -170 | +3.5 (-115) | o151.5 (-115) |
| Caesars | +148 | -175 | +3.5 (-110) | o150.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on Pennsylvania Quakers vs Saint Joseph's Hawks
On the Kalshi moneyline: Pennsylvania Quakers: 24% of bets, 12% of the money; Saint Joseph's Hawks: 76% of bets, 88% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Saint Joseph's Hawks -4.5: 62% of bets, 34% of the money; Pennsylvania Quakers +4.5: 38% of bets, 66% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 152.5: 72% of bets, 42% of the money; Under 152.5: 28% of bets, 59% of the money.
Pennsylvania Quakers vs Saint Joseph's Hawks stats (this season)
| Stat | Pennsylvania Quakers | Saint Joseph's Hawks |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-2 | 3-0 |
| Adjusted offensive efficiency | 103.8 (266th of 364) | 101.2 (315th of 364) |
| Adjusted defensive efficiency | 105.8 (143rd of 364) | 102.4 (60th of 364) |
| Adjusted net efficiency | -1.9 (221st of 364) | -1.2 (206th of 364) |
| Pace | 78.7 (17th of 364) | 73.6 (79th of 364) |
| Effective FG% | 44.8% (330th of 364) | 43.7% (336th of 364) |
| Opponent effective FG% | 55.2% (316th of 364) | 46.3% (128th of 364) |
| Turnover rate | 15.3% (83rd of 364) | 11.3% (6th of 364) |
| Offensive rebound % | 25.7% (322nd of 364) | 27.0% (296th of 364) |
| 3-point % | 35.4% (123rd of 364) | 31.1% (230th of 364) |
| Free throw rate | 33.2% (223rd of 364) | 48.5% (47th of 364) |
Key players
- TJ Power (Pennsylvania): Averages 18.3 points and has made 43.5% of his threes, and he scored a season-high 26 at Navy.
- Michael Zanoni (Pennsylvania): Has hit 9 of 18 threes, making him Penn's best way to beat a defense that gives up perimeter attempts.
- Sir Mohammed (Pennsylvania): Scored 21 at Navy and carries a 27.6% usage rate, nearly matching Power's share of the offense.
- AJ Levine (Pennsylvania): Leads Penn with 3.7 assists per game but was hurt late at Navy, and his status is unclear.
- Khaafiq Myers (Saint Joseph's): Leads the Hawks at 18.7 points and 4.7 assists while making just 18.2% of his threes.
- BJ Ranson (Saint Joseph's): Averages 17.0 points and has made 10 of 20 threes, including 6 of 9 against South Florida.
- Sean Logan (Saint Joseph's): Blocks 5.7 shots per game, the main reason the Hawks rank second nationally in block rate.
- Jaiden Glover-Toscano (Saint Joseph's): Averages 15.0 points but played only 13 minutes and shot 1 of 7 against South Florida.
Numbers that matter
| SJU block rate | 26.4% | Second in Division I, against a Penn offense that can't finish inside. |
|---|---|---|
| Penn 2-point % | 39.2% | Ranks 354th of 364, which pushes the Quakers toward the three-point line. |
| SJU opponent 3PA rate | 51.6% | Opponents take a majority of their shots from deep against the Hawks but make only 26.8%. |
| SJU turnover rate | 11.3% | Sixth nationally, the Hawks' steadiest edge in a fast game. |
| Spread | -4.5 | Saint Joseph's has been the 4.5-point favorite since the line first appeared. |
Pennsylvania Quakers vs Saint Joseph's Hawks: quick answers
What was the final score of Pennsylvania Quakers vs Saint Joseph's Hawks?
Pennsylvania Quakers 77, Saint Joseph's Hawks 83 (final). Saint Joseph's Hawks covered the closing spread (Pennsylvania Quakers +3.5). The game went over the closing total of 151.5.
Who is favored in Pennsylvania Quakers vs Saint Joseph's Hawks?
Saint Joseph's is favored by 3.5 points (Saint Joseph's -3.5).
What is the over/under for Pennsylvania Quakers vs Saint Joseph's Hawks?
The total is 151.5 points.
When is Pennsylvania Quakers vs Saint Joseph's Hawks?
Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 6:30 PM ET.
Where is Pennsylvania Quakers vs Saint Joseph's Hawks played?
Michael J. Hagan '85 Arena, Philadelphia, PA.
Has the line moved for Pennsylvania Quakers vs Saint Joseph's Hawks?
Yes: Pennsylvania Quakers opened +4.5 and is now +3.5, and the total moved from 152.5 to 151.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Pennsylvania Quakers vs Saint Joseph's Hawks?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Pennsylvania Quakers: 24% of bets, 12% of the money; Saint Joseph's Hawks: 76% of bets, 88% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Saint Joseph's Hawks -4.5: 62% of bets, 34% of the money; Pennsylvania Quakers +4.5: 38% of bets, 66% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 152.5: 72% of bets, 42% of the money; Under 152.5: 28% of bets, 59% of the money.