Pennsylvania Quakers vs Navy Midshipmen prediction: Penn's returning core brings turnover pressure to a rebuilt Navy
The Quakers kept their team together and win the ball back often, while the Midshipmen are still learning who they are and giving it away.
Navy Midshipmen covered the closing spread (Pennsylvania Quakers -7.5). The game went over the closing total of 146.5.
| Spread | Pennsylvania -7.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 146.5 |
- Penn's experience and ball pressure should carry it unless Navy turns its offensive rebounding into enough second chances to slow the game.
- Navy's ball handlers against Penn's defense: the Quakers rank 51st in forced turnover rate, and Navy ranks 317th in giving it away.
- Penn is a 7.5-point road favorite with a 147 total and no line movement; Navy is 0-2 against the spread.
Continuity against a rebuild
Navy won 26 games last season and then watched most of that team leave. Penn kept its core, added a Notre Dame transfer and was picked to win the Ivy League. Wednesday's Veterans Classic game in Annapolis, the first in this series played there since 2016-17, tests how much that difference matters in November.
The Midshipmen return 40.6% of last season's minutes after losing five of their top six scorers, including guard Austin Benigni and center Aidan Kehoe. Penn returns 77.6% of its minutes under second-year coach Fran McCaffery, with seven of its top nine scorers back. That gap is why last season's final adjusted ratings tell you little here. Those ratings (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) had Navy 153rd and Penn 161st. Navy, picked fifth in the Patriot League this year, is a different team now.
Where possessions get lost
The sharpest edge belongs to Penn's defense. The Quakers force turnovers on 24.2% of opponent possessions, 51st in Division I. Navy gives the ball away on 21.6% of its trips, which ranks 317th.
That is what a new backcourt looks like. Jinwoo Kim, the senior holdover who shot 40.6% from three last season, is shooting 23.1% from the field this year. Cam Cole moved from the bench into the starting lineup and is still finding his footing. Penn's hands are active at the top: transfer Sir Mohammed averages 2.5 steals, though he picked up two fouls in the first 100 seconds against Howard.
Navy can pressure too, ranking 55th in forced turnover rate. Penn has been steadier with the ball, at a 16.5% turnover rate.
Navy's path runs through the glass
If Navy keeps this close, second chances will be why. The Midshipmen rebound 36.8% of their own misses, 110th nationally. Penn's defense has collected just 62.5% of opponents' misses, which ranks 325th.
That number deserves some doubt. With two games for Penn and three for Navy, every figure here is a small sample. Penn's also includes a trip to Illinois, 4th in adjusted net rating, where the Quakers lost 112-70. Navy's best rebounder is a surprise: David Burnett, a seldom-used reserve last season, averages 9.3 boards as a starting guard. Penn is the bigger team, though, at 78.1 inches in minutes-weighted height to Navy's 75.6.
Tempo and the total
The total sits at 147 and hasn't moved since the first number posted Wednesday morning. Penn's pace of 82.3 possessions per 40 minutes ranks 4th in the country, but the Illinois rout inflates it. Navy ranked 355th in pace last season, among the slowest teams in the country, and has gone under in both of its lined games.
Neither offense has scored well inside. Penn is making 36.9% of its twos, which ranks 356th. Navy's effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times) is 44.9%, 321st. Navy's offense has also swung wildly: it scored 39 at George Washington and then 102 against Central Penn.
Series, sideline and the number
Penn leads the all-time series 59-27, but Navy has won five of the last seven meetings, most recently 86-78 at Penn in November 2024. This is the 87th meeting.
The Quakers arrive after a hard week off the court. On Nov. 8, Penn announced that McCaffery's son, Jack, had been diagnosed with Hodgkin's lymphoma and is being treated at Penn Medicine. Penn beat Howard the next night. Neither team listed injuries as of Nov. 7, and freshman Chase Geremia was in street clothes against Howard, with no reason given.
Navy has failed to cover both of its lined games, including a 66-60 win over Delaware State as a 9.5-point favorite. Penn's -375 moneyline shows how much the market trusts its returning core over Navy's rebuilt roster.
Pennsylvania Quakers vs Navy Midshipmen line movement and odds
| Book | Quakers ML | Midshipmen ML | Quakers spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -325 | +260 | -7.5 (-118) | o146.5 (-105) |
| BetRivers | -385 | +275 | -7.5 (-117) | o147.5 (-104) |
| DraftKings | -325 | +260 | -7.5 (-118) | o146.5 (-108) |
| ESPN BET | -320 | +260 | -7.5 (-110) | o146.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | -330 | +260 | -8 (-110) | o145.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | -345 | +270 | -7.5 (-115) | o145.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | -375 | +275 | -7.5 (-115) | o147.5 (+100) |
| Caesars | -350 | +275 | -7.5 (-110) | o145.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on Pennsylvania Quakers vs Navy Midshipmen
On the Kalshi moneyline: Pennsylvania Quakers: 30% of bets, 56% of the money; Navy Midshipmen: 70% of bets, 44% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Pennsylvania Quakers -7.5: 42% of bets, 74% of the money; Navy Midshipmen +7.5: 58% of bets, 27% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 147.5: 46% of bets, 34% of the money; Under 147.5: 54% of bets, 66% of the money.
Key players
- TJ Power (Pennsylvania): He shot 43.2% from three last season and is averaging 14.5 points while working through a 32.4% start from the field.
- Michael Zanoni (Pennsylvania): He is 6 of 13 from three this season after making 92% of his free throws last season.
- Lucas Lueth (Pennsylvania): He is averaging 3.5 blocks in 30.5 minutes a game off the bench.
- Sir Mohammed (Pennsylvania): He averages 2.5 steals and 6.0 rebounds but is shooting 27.3% from the field.
- Jordan Pennick (Navy): He has jumped from 7.2 points a game last season to 19.5, with a 29.9% usage rate.
- David Burnett (Navy): He averages 9.3 rebounds and grabbed 12 against Delaware State.
- Jinwoo Kim (Navy): He was a 40.6% three-point shooter last season but is 3 of 13 from deep this year.
- Jerry Ashley Jr. (Navy): He is shooting 53.3% from the field with a 123.6 offensive rating.
Numbers that matter
| Navy turnover rate | 21.6% | It ranks 317th, a weak spot against a Penn defense that thrives on takeaways. |
|---|---|---|
| Penn forced turnover rate | 24.2% | The Quakers rank 51st at taking the ball away. |
| Navy returning minutes | 40.6% | Navy lost five of its top six scorers, so last season's ratings say little about this team. |
| Penn defensive rebound rate | 62.5% | It ranks 325th, which gives Navy's offensive rebounders an opening. |
| Spread | -7.5 | Penn is laying points on the road, and the line hasn't moved. |
Pennsylvania Quakers vs Navy Midshipmen: quick answers
What was the final score of Pennsylvania Quakers vs Navy Midshipmen?
Pennsylvania Quakers 76, Navy Midshipmen 81 (final). Navy Midshipmen covered the closing spread (Pennsylvania Quakers -7.5). The game went over the closing total of 146.5.
Who is favored in Pennsylvania Quakers vs Navy Midshipmen?
Pennsylvania is favored by 7.5 points (Pennsylvania -7.5).
What is the over/under for Pennsylvania Quakers vs Navy Midshipmen?
The total is 146.5 points.
When is Pennsylvania Quakers vs Navy Midshipmen?
Wednesday, November 11, 2026 at 5:30 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Pennsylvania Quakers vs Navy Midshipmen?
Yes: Pennsylvania Quakers opened -10.5 and is now -7.5, and the total moved from 148.5 to 145.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Pennsylvania Quakers vs Navy Midshipmen?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Pennsylvania Quakers: 30% of bets, 56% of the money; Navy Midshipmen: 70% of bets, 44% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Pennsylvania Quakers -7.5: 42% of bets, 74% of the money; Navy Midshipmen +7.5: 58% of bets, 27% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 147.5: 46% of bets, 34% of the money; Under 147.5: 54% of bets, 66% of the money.