Oral Roberts Golden Eagles vs Tulsa Golden Hurricane prediction: Tulsa's three-point barrage tests Oral Roberts' ice-cold Golden Eagles

Everyone shoots, one team scores

Both teams fire threes at an unusual rate. Tulsa takes 61.2% of its shots from deep, the second-most in Division I. It has made 44.6% of them, 13th in the country.

Oral Roberts runs the same playbook without the results. The Golden Eagles take 54.6% of their shots from three, 14th-most. They have made 21.1%, which ranks 358th of 364. Effective field goal percentage, which counts threes 1.5 times, tells the story: Tulsa is at 63.2%, Oral Roberts at 45.8%.

The shooting slump runs through the rotation. Boden Williams has made 3 of 17 threes and Alex Couto 2 of 14. There is an opening if the shots start falling. Tulsa opponents have made 36.4% from three, 300th nationally, so this defense has not taken the arc away. Oral Roberts has been far better inside, making 62.7% of its twos, 44th in the country. Two games is a tiny sample, and both teams have played a non-Division I opponent. The extremes may not last, but they are what each team has shown so far.

Steals are the underdog's lifeline

The best thing Oral Roberts does is take the ball away. Its forced turnover rate, the share of opponent possessions that end in a giveaway, is 25.5%. Its steal rate of 15.9% ranks 35th. Tulsa has been tidy, turning it over on 14.4% of possessions, 74th nationally.

That pressure comes at a price. Oral Roberts gives the ball away on 20.7% of its own trips, 288th. Tulsa gets steals on 17.4% of opponent possessions, 16th in the country, so loose balls could go both ways.

The glass looks harder still for the visitors. Oral Roberts has rebounded 42.9% of its own misses, 36th nationally. Tulsa has grabbed 88.7% of opponents' misses, first in Division I. Tulsa also has the size, with a minutes-weighted average height of 78.2 inches to Oral Roberts' 75.6. Chris Loofe, a transfer from Middle Tennessee, has averaged 9.5 rebounds.

A new Tulsa, an old rivalry

Tulsa went 30-8 last season and finished as NIT runner-up. Almost none of that team remains. Players on this roster account for only 15.1% of last season's minutes, so last season's final ratings are a weak guide. Last season Tulsa ranked 53rd in adjusted net efficiency, points per 100 possessions adjusted for opponents.

The new group starts with Jaylen Lawal, a holdover who moved into a bigger role. He is averaging 21.0 points and has made 9 of 15 threes, including 25 points against Northern Illinois. Kobi Williams, who shot 37.2% from three at Missouri State last season, gives Eric Konkol a second shooter. Newcomer Denton Forsythe adds bench pressure with 3.0 steals per game.

Oral Roberts went 10-23 last season and is in its second year under Kory Barnett. Its offense runs through forward Luke Gray, who is averaging 22.5 points with a 33.2% usage rate. Cal Furnish runs things with 5.5 assists per game.

Tulsa won the last two Mayor's Cup meetings. This one is at the Reynolds Center, and Tulsa comes in with six days of rest to Oral Roberts' four. Listings disagree on whether tip is at 7 or 8 p.m. ET.

Where the number sits

Tulsa is an 18-point favorite with the total at 154.5. The spread has moved toward Oral Roberts from the 19 our feed first recorded, while the total ticked up from 153.5.

The one test each team has had against a Division I opponent with a line favors Tulsa. Oral Roberts lost 55-85 at Central Arkansas as an 8.75-point underdog, and that opponent ranks 159th in adjusted net efficiency. Tulsa covered as a 14.25-point favorite against Northern Illinois, a team ranked 335th, and the game went over the total.

The early first-half numbers carry an asterisk. Tulsa has allowed 20.5 first-half points per game, fifth nationally, but one of those halves came against Ottawa (KS).