Omaha vs Utah State prediction: Mason Falslev leads Utah State's rebuilt Aggies into the Jacobson era

Falslev's team now

Ben Jacobson spent two decades at Northern Iowa. His first game in Logan is also the start of Utah State's first season in the Pac-12, and the first of five straight home games to open the year. Season tickets are already sold out.

The roster is half new. Players back from last season's 29-7 Mountain West champions logged 45.7% of the team's minutes. MJ Collins Jr., who scored 17.5 points a game, left for Cincinnati. Kolby King went to Auburn, and point guard Drake Allen is gone too. That makes last season's team numbers a rough guide at best.

What stays is the centerpiece. Mason Falslev, the reigning Mountain West Player of the Year, averaged 16.0 points last season with an offensive rating of 126.1. Offensive rating measures the points a player produces per 100 possessions he uses. One preseason projection has Virginia transfer Dallin Hall and Louisiana Tech transfer AJ Bates starting beside him, though the school hasn't confirmed that lineup. The preseason KenPom rankings put the Aggies 51st, the best mark in the conference behind Gonzaga.

Omaha's rebuild, possibly on short rest

Chris Crutchfield, in his fifth season, has 10 newcomers to fit together. Transfers Deke Thompson (Texas State), Heri Bukinga (Drake) and Cahmai Crosby (North Texas) lead the group. Grant Stubblefield made the preseason All-Summit second team, and Summit coaches picked the Mavericks fourth.

The only look so far was rough. Omaha lost 72-52 in an exhibition at Minnesota on Oct. 15, though it did close the night on a 12-3 run. Utah State's last tune-up looked very different: a 101-79 win over Santa Clara, the West Coast Conference's preseason favorite, with 33 bench points.

There is also the schedule. Omaha's site lists a game at BYU on Nov. 6, which would put the Mavericks in Logan the next afternoon after a night game in Provo. Watch for heavy legs late.

Where the Aggies can pull away

Last season Utah State made 59.9% of its twos, 13th in the country. Omaha's defense allowed 55.1% inside the arc, 326th of 365. Those are last season's rosters, but the shape of the problem carries over. The Mavericks have to prove they can protect the paint before Utah State's guards stop attacking it.

The second edge is turnovers. Utah State forced turnovers on 20.5% of possessions last season, 33rd nationally, and it took 14 from Santa Clara in the exhibition. Omaha has 10 newcomers, and a new group in a hostile building can give the ball away. At the other end, Omaha forced turnovers at a rate that ranked 332nd last season, so Utah State should get plenty of clean possessions.

Omaha's paths to a cover

Foul trouble is Utah State's soft spot. Its opponents' free throw rate (free-throw attempts per field-goal attempt) ranked 297th last season. In the Oct. 17 win at Saint Mary's, 6-foot-11 center Connor Turnbull fouled out after eight minutes. If Omaha's drivers get Turnbull to the bench early, the Aggies' interior thins quickly.

The three-point line is the other lever. Omaha made 35.3% of its threes last season, 103rd nationally. Don't expect second chances to help much, though. Utah State's defensive rebounding ranked 290th last season, but Omaha's offensive rebounding ranked 319th, so neither team is likely to win the glass by much.

What to watch

• Utah State's health and eligibility: At the Oct. 10 exhibition against Denver, Jacobson said Roberts remained in long-term recovery and Mulholland was working toward a return. Freshman guard Jax Allen did not dress while the school reviews his eligibility. No newer update has surfaced.
• Turnbull's fouls: If he stays on the floor, Utah State's size advantage holds.
• Omaha's legs: If the BYU game goes ahead the night before, watch the Mavericks' shooting in the second half.
• The line: Nothing is posted yet, so the first number will show how much the market trusts Utah State's rebuilt roster.