Old Dominion vs Bucknell prediction: Old Dominion's rebuilt Monarchs aim at Bucknell's soft perimeter

Two rebuilds, one old baseline

Neither program wants to dwell on last season. Old Dominion went 12-21 and Bucknell went 10-23, and both spent the offseason reshaping their rosters. When they tip at Sojka Pavilion on Nov. 7, scheduled for 5 p.m. ET, the question is which rebuild arrives ready.

Last season's final adjusted ratings (points scored and allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) favored the Monarchs clearly. ODU finished at -7.5, 248th of 365. Bucknell finished at -18.2, 334th. That gap is real, but it describes teams that no longer exist in full.

Old Dominion brought in 11 newcomers, among them transfers Adante' Holiman from Arizona State, Khoi Thurmon from Oakland and Bubu Benjamin from George Washington. Coach Jones enters his third season at 27-41 in Norfolk, so the pressure to show progress is plain. Bucknell's John Griffin III also built a new-look group, adding Air Force transfer Kyle Marshall and Northeastern's Luca Soroa Schaller. The Bison do bring back continuity: junior guards Jayden Williams and Aleksander Pachucki are returning starters, and Patrick O'Brien is the lone senior.

Bucknell's three-point problem

The clearest weakness in Bucknell's profile last season sat on the perimeter. Opponents took threes on 45.7% of their shots against the Bison, the 25th-highest rate in the country, and made 37.0% of them, which ranked 354th. Teams found open looks and cashed them.

ODU's offense was built in a way that should welcome that. The Monarchs shot 35.4% from three last season, 97th nationally, yet took threes on only 36.3% of their attempts. Inside the arc they struggled, hitting 49.5% of their twos, 294th. If the new backcourt shoots like last season's, the Monarchs' most efficient path runs straight at the Bison's biggest hole. A Bucknell defense that rarely protected the rim offers little reason to stay outside either.

Turnovers and the foul line

Bucknell's other chronic flaw was giving the ball away. Its turnover rate (turnovers per 100 possessions) was 19.1% last season, 325th. Against most opponents that is a crisis. Against this one it may not be: ODU forced turnovers on just 14.6% of possessions, 327th, and rarely turned defense into easy offense.

The foul line could tilt things back toward the home side. ODU's defense sent opponents to the line constantly, with an opponent free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) of 41.6%, 330th. Bucknell didn't draw many fouls last season, but it made 76.8% of its free throws, 32nd nationally. In a tight finish, that touch matters.

A home opener in a brutal week

For Bucknell, this is the home opener, wedged between road games at Maryland on Nov. 2 and at Virginia on Nov. 10. It is the most winnable game of that stretch, and the Bison will want it badly. The programs last played in 2008, when Bucknell won 83-82 in double overtime in this same building, giving Dave Paulsen his first win as Bison coach.

ODU's newcomers already have one tuneup in the books. The Monarchs routed Virginia State 75-48 in Norfolk, jumping out to a 9-2 lead and never letting the visitors back in. Three things to watch:

• Whether ODU's transfers lean into the three against a Bison defense that allowed plenty of them
• How Williams and Pachucki handle the ball against a defense that rarely pressures it
• Free throw volume: ODU's fouling habit against Bucknell's reliable shooters