Old Dominion Monarchs vs Norfolk St Spartans prediction: Old Dominion's offensive glass threatens a rebuilt Norfolk State at Echols
In a crosstown rivalry between two nearly new rosters, the Monarchs' second-chance points and a reshaped defense look like the cleanest edge the Spartans have to erase.
Old Dominion Monarchs covered the closing spread (Old Dominion Monarchs -6.5). The game went under the closing total of 136.5.
| Spread | Old Dominion -6.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 136.5 |
- Expect a grinding, possession-by-possession game in which Old Dominion's offensive rebounding and pressure defense try to pull away from a Norfolk State team still finding itself.
- Old Dominion's 39.2% offensive rebound rate against a Norfolk State defense that ranks 348th in defensive rebounding.
- Old Dominion is a 6.5-point road favorite with a 136.0 total; the line has moved from 4.5 to 6.5 toward the Monarchs, and the total has dropped from 139.5. The Monarchs play at a pace ranked 293rd.
The fight for second chances
The Battle for Norfolk returns to Echols Hall on Veterans Day, and almost nobody from last year's 60-57 Old Dominion win is still around. Norfolk State brought back just 7.0% of last season's minutes. Old Dominion brought back 29.0%. That leaves a crosstown rivalry between two rosters still learning each other, and one clear mismatch under the basket.
Old Dominion has rebounded 39.2% of its own misses, its offensive rebound rate, which ranks 72nd nationally. Norfolk State's defense has secured only 59.3% of opponents' misses, 348th of 364. That is the widest gap anywhere in this matchup. The Spartans felt it at William & Mary on Sunday, where they gave up 104 points in a 31-point loss. If the Monarchs keep getting second shots, their mediocre half-court offense doesn't need to be sharp.
Two rosters built from scratch
Mike Jones, in his third season, has leaned on the depth he credited this week for the Monarchs' ability to win in different ways. The bench has carried the scoring. Jared Turner, a returner, hit 8 of 11 threes and scored 24 at Bucknell. Khoi Thurmon, a former junior college All-American, is running the second unit at 5.3 assists per game. Jotham Nweke, a GLIAC All-Defensive forward, supplies rim protection.
Robert Jones's Spartans are younger. Four freshmen dot the roster, led by four-star guard Jordan Skyers, the MEAC Rookie of the Week at 14.0 points and 3.3 steals through three games. UT Arlington transfer Bahsil Laster is the other primary creator, though he went 0 for 7 from the field at William & Mary. Neither team had a published starting lineup or any injury report as of Wednesday.
A Monarchs defense that changed overnight
Last season Old Dominion barely forced turnovers, ranking 327th in that category. This season it is forcing them on 23.3% of opponent possessions, 69th nationally, and holding foes to a 39.5% effective field goal percentage (a shooting measure that counts threes 1.5 times), 27th in the country. The caveat: those numbers came against Western Michigan, Bucknell and Regent, and three games is a small sample.
Norfolk State's best counter is ball security. The Spartans have turned it over on 14.3% of possessions, 71st nationally. If Skyers and Laster protect the ball, the Monarchs lose their easiest offense and the game tightens.
A modest number for a rivalry
A modest number for a rivalry Old Dominion is a 6.5-point road favorite, and the line has moved from 4.5 since it first appeared Wednesday morning. The total has also moved, from 139.5 down to 136.0. The Monarchs are 2-0 against the spread. Their pace ranks 293rd, a slow tempo that fits last year's low-scoring meeting.
The preseason polls split the difference: Old Dominion was picked 11th in the Sun Belt, while Norfolk State was picked third in the MEAC. Old Dominion leads the series 16-6. With so much new talent on both benches, the home crowd at Echols may matter more than either team's record.
Old Dominion Monarchs vs Norfolk St Spartans line movement and odds
| Book | Monarchs ML | Spartans ML | Monarchs spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -275 | +220 | -6.5 (-110) | o136.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | -315 | +240 | -6.5 (-113) | o136.5 (-109) |
| DraftKings | -278 | +225 | -6.5 (-108) | o136.5 (-108) |
| ESPN BET | -270 | +220 | -6.5 (-105) | o136.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | -275 | +220 | -6.5 (-105) | o136.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | -275 | +220 | -6.5 (-110) | o136.5 (-115) |
| Hard Rock Bet | -325 | +240 | -6.5 (-110) | o136.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | -278 | +222 | -6.5 (-110) | o136.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on Old Dominion Monarchs vs Norfolk St Spartans
On the Kalshi moneyline: Old Dominion Monarchs: 73% of bets, 56% of the money; Norfolk St Spartans: 28% of bets, 44% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Old Dominion Monarchs -7.5: 52% of bets, 68% of the money; Norfolk St Spartans +7.5: 48% of bets, 32% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 137.5: 46% of bets, 57% of the money; Under 137.5: 54% of bets, 43% of the money.
Key players
- Jared Turner (Old Dominion): He is shooting 66.7% from three this season, including 8 of 11 at Bucknell.
- Zacch Wiggins (Old Dominion): He averages 13.3 points with a 128 offensive rating and scored 25 against Western Michigan.
- Khoi Thurmon (Old Dominion): The junior college transfer averages 5.3 assists in 19.7 minutes off the bench.
- Jotham Nweke (Old Dominion): He blocks 1.7 shots per game in 16.0 minutes.
- Jordan Skyers (Norfolk State): The MEAC Rookie of the Week is averaging 14.0 points and 3.3 steals through three games.
- Bahsil Laster (Norfolk State): He averages 15.5 points and 4.5 assists but went 0 for 7 from the field at William & Mary.
- Chris Walker (Norfolk State): He has made 5 of 13 threes, 38.5%, and scored 19 against Randolph.
- J.C. Riley Jr. (Norfolk State): He posted 12 points and 9 rebounds at William & Mary.
Numbers that matter
| ODU offensive rebound rate | 39.2% | Ranks 72nd nationally and points at the Spartans' biggest weakness. |
|---|---|---|
| Norfolk State defensive rebound rate | 348th | The Spartans have secured only 59.3% of opponents' misses. |
| ODU forced turnover rate | 23.3% | A jump from last season, when the Monarchs ranked 327th in forcing turnovers. |
| Norfolk State returning minutes | 7.0% | Almost the entire rotation is new, making last season's numbers a weak guide. |
| Spread | -4.5 | Old Dominion's number as a road favorite, unchanged since it first appeared. |
Old Dominion Monarchs vs Norfolk St Spartans: quick answers
What was the final score of Old Dominion Monarchs vs Norfolk St Spartans?
Old Dominion Monarchs 71, Norfolk St Spartans 60 (final). Old Dominion Monarchs covered the closing spread (Old Dominion Monarchs -6.5). The game went under the closing total of 136.5.
Who is favored in Old Dominion Monarchs vs Norfolk St Spartans?
Old Dominion is favored by 6.5 points (Old Dominion -6.5).
What is the over/under for Old Dominion Monarchs vs Norfolk St Spartans?
The total is 136.5 points.
When is Old Dominion Monarchs vs Norfolk St Spartans?
Wednesday, November 11, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Old Dominion Monarchs vs Norfolk St Spartans?
Yes: Old Dominion Monarchs opened -5.5 and is now -6.5, and the total moved from 145 to 136.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Old Dominion Monarchs vs Norfolk St Spartans?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Old Dominion Monarchs: 73% of bets, 56% of the money; Norfolk St Spartans: 28% of bets, 44% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Old Dominion Monarchs -7.5: 52% of bets, 68% of the money; Norfolk St Spartans +7.5: 48% of bets, 32% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 137.5: 46% of bets, 57% of the money; Under 137.5: 54% of bets, 43% of the money.