Oakland vs UC Santa Barbara prediction: Oakland reaches Santa Barbara a day after Stanford, defense under scrutiny

A road trip with no breather

Oakland's schedule lists a game at Stanford on Nov. 6, the night before this 4 p.m. ET tip at the Thunderdome, with a trip to Alabama on Nov. 9 after it. That is three games in four days for a team far from Michigan, and legs on the second night are a fair question.

Greg Kampe, listed in his 42nd season, brings a group picked fourth in the Horizon League preseason poll. Joe Pasternack enters his 10th season at UCSB. Neither team has played a game yet, so everything below comes from last season, when Oakland went 16-16 and UCSB went 18-14. Both rosters have turned over since, which makes those numbers a rough baseline rather than a forecast.

Gaucho shooters, soft Oakland interior

Oakland's problem last season was simple: it could not get stops. Its defense allowed 115.5 points per 100 possessions, 329th of 365 nationally. Opponents posted a 54.2% effective field goal percentage (a shooting measure that counts threes as 1.5 makes), 330th.

The damage came inside. Opponents made 56.5% of their twos against Oakland, 345th in the country. UCSB can attack that and also shoot over it: the Gauchos hit 37.3% from three, 27th nationally, and ranked 53rd in effective field goal percentage.

The Gauchos' own rim protection was thin, with a block rate that ranked 325th. Oakland made 53.8% of its twos, so the Grizzlies should find looks inside too. The new piece to watch is Josh Hill, a 6'11" forward who arrived from Robert Morris in late September.

The glass and the foul line

UCSB's best defensive trait was ending possessions. The Gauchos grabbed 75.3% of opponents' misses, ninth in the country, while Oakland's offensive rebound rate sat in the middle of the pack at 162nd. Oakland was the opposite on its own end, collecting just 66.0% of opponents' misses, 333rd. Second chances should tilt toward UCSB.

The foul line pulls the other way. Oakland rarely fouled, ranking fifth nationally in opponent free throw rate. UCSB fouled often, ranking 317th in the same stat, and Oakland drew free throws well (95th in free throw rate, or attempts per field goal try). The Grizzlies made 75.0% at the line, so trips there tend to pay.

Tempo and ball security

Oakland played fast last season, at 70.7 possessions per 40 minutes, 48th nationally. UCSB sat closer to the middle at 67.2. More possessions favor the team with the better offense, and Oakland's offensive efficiency ranked 63rd.

UCSB's weak spot was turnovers: it gave the ball away on 18.8% of possessions, 307th. Oakland is not built to punish that, ranking 258th in forced turnover rate, while the Grizzlies protected the ball well themselves (48th in turnover rate). If UCSB's guards are careless, Oakland may get a few extra looks, though its forced turnover rate was only 258th.

What to watch

• Oakland's energy early, coming off a game at Stanford the night before.
• UCSB's three-point volume against a defense that gave up easy twos and good shots overall.
• Free throw totals, where Oakland's discipline and UCSB's fouling clash.
• Josh Hill's role in Oakland's frontcourt against UCSB's rebounders.