Northwestern State vs Murray State prediction: Murray State unveils a rebuilt roster and a reimagined CFSB Center
The Valley's preseason favorite opens its renovated home against Northwestern State with nine newcomers, so last season's numbers explain less than usual.
- Murray State should control a home opener, but a roster with nine newcomers makes the Racers' shape and rotation the real unknown.
- Watch Murray State's three-point volume against a Northwestern State defense that ranked 299th in opponent 3-point percentage last season.
- No line has been posted in our feed. Last season's adjusted net ratings put Murray State 115th and Northwestern State 283rd.
A new building, a new team
Murray State was picked to win the Missouri Valley for the first time, and on Saturday, Nov. 7, the Racers show the home crowd what that looks like. The game opens a reimagined CFSB Center, and it is the first meeting between these programs. Murray State lists the tip at 7 p.m. Other listings disagree.
The crowd will see mostly new faces. Murray State returns six players from last season's 20-13 team, but only three who saw action: Mathis Courbon, Roman Domon and Brayden Shorter. Nine newcomers fill out the roster, four transfers and five freshmen. Among the transfers are Kaden Magwood, formerly of Auburn, and senior Ben Shtolzberg, who has played at UC Santa Barbara and Creighton.
Second-year coach Ryan Miller, extended through 2031 after his first season, said recently that he is still figuring out how the pieces fit. The Racers did beat Incarnate Word in an exhibition in San Antonio. Northwestern State's current roster is harder to pin down, because published lists conflict.
What last season's Racers did
With so few returners, last season's team numbers are a loose guide. The identity is still worth knowing, because it is Miller's. The 2025-26 Racers could score: their offensive efficiency of 123.3 points per 100 possessions ranked 12th of 365. They also could not stop anyone, allowing 119.4 per 100, which ranked 355th.
They shot threes freely, with 44.8% of their shots coming from deep (72nd in volume). One odd feature of that defense: opponents took threes on just 27.4% of their shots, the fewest in Division I. The trouble came inside and on the scoreboard, where Murray State gave up 80.2 points per game.
Tony Barbee is now listed as associate head coach and defensive coordinator. Whether the new group defends better is the biggest open question about this team.
Northwestern State wants it slow
Northwestern State went 10-22 last season and played at a crawl: 63.1 possessions per 40 minutes ranked 357th. Murray State sat near the middle at 201st. A slow, grinding game is the Demons' best path to staying close against a more talented opponent.
The Demons' offense lived at the foul line. Their free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) of 40.3% ranked 52nd, and they made 74.2% of those tries. Murray State's defense sent opponents to the line at a moderate rate last season, 118th nationally.
The rest of the Northwestern State profile was rough. The Demons ranked 298th in effective field goal percentage (a shooting measure where threes count 1.5 times), and they turned it over on 18.4% of possessions, 284th.
Where the Racers can pull away
If the new Racers keep the old shot diet, Northwestern State's perimeter defense is the soft spot. Opponents hit 35.5% of their threes against the Demons last season, which ranked 299th. They also blocked few shots last season, ranking 320th in block rate, so the lane offered little resistance either.
The Demons did force turnovers at a decent clip last season, 126th nationally. With so many new pieces in Murray State's backcourt rotation, early ball security is worth watching.
What to watch - How Miller splits minutes among Courbon, Domon, Shorter and the transfers. - Whether Northwestern State can drag the pace down and get to the line. - Murray State's three-point volume in its first home game.
Key players
- Mathis Courbon (Murray State): One of just three Racers back who saw action during last season's 20-13 run.
- Roman Domon (Murray State): One of the three returning Racers with game minutes from a team that ranked 12th in offensive efficiency last season.
- Brayden Shorter (Murray State): Part of the three-player core of continuity on a roster that added nine newcomers.
- Kaden Magwood (Murray State): One of four transfers brought in to reshape a team that ranked 355th in defensive efficiency last season.
Numbers that matter
| Racers' offense, last season | 12th | Murray State's offensive efficiency of 123.3 points per 100 possessions ranked among the nation's best in 2025-26. |
|---|---|---|
| Racers' defense, last season | 355th | Murray State allowed 119.4 points per 100 possessions, the problem new defensive coordinator Tony Barbee inherits. |
| Demons' pace, last season | 357th | Northwestern State played at 63.1 possessions per 40 minutes, among the slowest in Division I. |
| Demons' free throw rate, last season | 40.3% | Ranked 52nd, the foul line was Northwestern State's most reliable source of offense. |
| Demons' opponent 3-point %, last season | 35.5% | Ranked 299th, an opening for a Murray State team that took 44.8% of its shots from three. |
Northwestern State vs Murray State: quick answers
When is Northwestern State vs Murray State?
Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET.