Northern Iowa vs Furman prediction: Furman's rematch tests a Northern Iowa defense without Ben Jacobson

The Jacobson defense, minus Jacobson

Northern Iowa spent last season making opponents miserable. The Panthers allowed 61.8 points per game, the fewest in Division I, and finished 6th of 365 in defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions). Their perimeter defense was the sharpest part of it: opponents shot 28.7% from three, 3rd nationally.

Furman felt all of it. The Panthers won the last meeting 70-54 at the McLeod Center on Nov. 14, 2025, a game UNI controlled from its own floor.

The man who built that defense is gone. Ben Jacobson left for Utah State, and Kyle Green took over in April, so this is one of his first games running the program. Last season's numbers describe a system Green inherited, not one he has proven he can keep. That uncertainty is the central question of this rematch.

Furman wins inside, not outside

Furman's offense has a split personality. The Paladins hoisted threes on 47.2% of their shots last season, 31st-most in the country, yet hit only 32.8% of them, 254th. Firing away from deep into UNI's perimeter defense is the matchup Furman should avoid.

The better path is inside. Furman made 60.6% of its twos, 7th in Division I, and UNI's two-point defense was merely solid at 96th. If the Paladins pound the paint, they can turn this game. Their effective field goal percentage (a shooting measure that counts threes as 1.5 makes) ranked 39th, a sign the offense works when the shot mix cooperates.

Few possessions, few second chances

This game will be slow. UNI played at 63.6 possessions per 40 minutes last season, 351st of 365, and Furman sat at 240th. Fewer trips make every empty one count.

The Panthers protected the ball well, with a turnover rate (turnovers per 100 possessions) of 14.4%, 32nd. Furman, by contrast, ranked 249th in turnover rate and 337th in forcing turnovers, so it is unlikely to steal extra possessions.

UNI's habit of retreating after a miss narrows the game further. The Panthers ranked 360th in offensive rebound rate and 360th in free throw rate, meaning they rarely chase misses or draw contact. Their offense lives on getting a clean first shot and getting back. Neither team is reliable at the line, both finishing below 70% last season, which matters if this one stays close.

Two programs coming off March

Both teams won their conference tournaments last spring. UNI took the Missouri Valley title and went 23-13. Furman won the SoCon tournament, went 22-13 and lost 82-71 to UConn in the NCAA opening round.

Last season's adjusted ratings, which account for schedule strength, rated UNI 71st and Furman 180th in net efficiency. That gap is real but dated, since both rosters changed.

Green's roster leans on newcomers. Four of them, juniors Greyson Uelmen, Tate McCubbin, Isaiah Johnson-Arigu and Ian Smikle, made the MVC preseason watchlist on Oct. 21. Uelmen arrives after two seasons at North Dakota.

Furman was picked to win the SoCon in the league coaches' poll, drawing 10 first-place votes. Graduate forward Marcus Kell, a standout at Western Carolina, joins the frontcourt, while Alex Wilkins left for Kentucky. The Paladins lost an exhibition 111-93 at Alabama on Oct. 8, then beat Georgia Southern 85-78 on Oct. 18. Collin O'Neal hurt his knee against Harvard last December; his status for this season hadn't been reported. No other injury or eligibility news has surfaced for either team.

What to watch

• Furman's shot selection: paint touches and twos rather than a barrage of threes into UNI's perimeter defense.
• The newcomers' defense: whether Green's transfers can reproduce last season's suffocating numbers.
• Kell's debut minutes: how much the Western Carolina transfer carries Furman's interior attack.
• Tip time: Furman's schedule lists 6:30 p.m. Eastern, with ESPN+ carrying it on UNI's listing.