Northern Illinois Huskies vs Bellarmine Knights prediction: Northern Illinois brings its three-point barrage to Bellarmine's open perimeter
A brand-new Huskies roster lives behind the arc, and the Knights have spent November giving opponents both the three and the layup.
Northern Illinois Huskies covered the closing spread (Northern Illinois Huskies -1.5). The game went under the closing total of 149.5.
| Spread | Northern Illinois -1.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 149.5 |
- Expect a shootout tilted by volume: Northern Illinois hoists threes and owns the glass, while Bellarmine counters at the free-throw line.
- Max Weisbrod's 42.4% three-point shooting against a Bellarmine defense that has let opponents take 49.8% of their shots from deep.
- Northern Illinois is now a 1.5-point road favorite with a 149.5 total; the line has moved from Bellarmine -1 to Northern Illinois -1.5, and the Huskies have gone over in all 3 lined games.
The Huskies live behind the arc
Matt Majkrzak's first Northern Illinois team plays one way. The Huskies take 52.4% of their shots from three, the 19th-highest rate among 364 Division I teams, and they have made enough of them to rank 57th in adjusted offensive efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents).
Bellarmine's defense has struggled against exactly that kind of team so far. Knights opponents have taken 49.8% of their attempts from deep, 29th-most in the country. The perimeter isn't even the worst of it. Opponents are making 65.8% of their twos against Bellarmine, 360th nationally, and the Knights block almost nothing.
The man running it is Max Weisbrod, a fifth-year guard from Northern Iowa who is averaging 7.2 assists. He has hit 14 of 33 threes, and he had 19 points and eight assists in the upset at Dayton. If he gets clean looks early, this becomes a long afternoon for the home side.
Bellarmine's path runs through the line
Bellarmine's path runs through the line Bellarmine's offense has a strange shape. The Knights are making 59.8% of their twos, 68th in the country, but just 25.0% of their threes, 343rd. Kenyon Goodin, the Preseason All-ASUN guard, made 41.8% from deep last season and is 1 of 14 this year.
The workaround is the foul line, and here the matchup favors the Knights. Bellarmine's free throw rate (free-throw attempts per field-goal attempt) of 46.9% ranks 58th. Northern Illinois sends opponents to the line at a 52.4% clip, 349th. Bellarmine converts there too, at 78.4%, and Tyler Doyle, who scored 20 at Miami (Ohio), is at 85% on his free throws. A close game in Knights Hall could hinge on how often Bellarmine gets to the line.
The glass belongs to the visitors
Second chances should tilt toward Northern Illinois. The Huskies grab 78.2% of available defensive rebounds, 23rd nationally, against a Bellarmine offense that rebounds only 27.0% of its own misses. At the other end, the Knights rank 329th in defensive rebounding.
Ball security adds to Bellarmine's problem. The Knights turn it over on 21.7% of possessions, 319th, and every empty trip is one more chance for the Huskies to launch from outside. Northern Illinois doesn't force many turnovers, so Bellarmine can survive this if it stays careful.
Two rosters starting over
Neither team looks much like last season's version. Northern Illinois returns none of last season's minutes after a 9-21 year, so last season's numbers say nothing about this group. The Huskies are 2-2, with an 89-87 loss to Grambling that came down to a missed three at the buzzer and a blowout loss at Tulsa alongside the Dayton win.
Bellarmine brought back eight players but lost Jack Karasinski, who scored 21.7 points per game last season and is now at Northwestern. That departure shows: the Knights ranked 6th in effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times) last season and sit 203rd now. Their schedule has been brutal, with road losses at Vanderbilt and Indiana before a 99-82 win over Franklin. The adjusted numbers still separate these teams, with Northern Illinois 172nd in net efficiency and Bellarmine 285th.
Where the market sits
Where the market sits Northern Illinois is a 1.5-point road favorite, and the line has moved from Bellarmine -1 to Northern Illinois -1.5 since our feed first recorded it. The total has dipped from 150.5 to 149.5. That spread essentially prices the better-rated visitor as slightly ahead of home court.
The total leans on Northern Illinois's tendencies. All three of its lined games have gone over, while Bellarmine is 2-1 against the spread. These programs have never met; the scheduled 2025 game at Northern Illinois was canceled for weather.
What to watch: - Weisbrod's three-point volume in the first ten minutes. - Bellarmine free-throw attempts versus Huskies made threes. - Whether Goodin finds his stroke from deep.
Northern Illinois Huskies vs Bellarmine Knights line movement and odds
| Book | Huskies ML | Knights ML | Huskies spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -135 | +105 | — | o149.5 (-115) |
| BetRivers | -115 | -108 | -0.5 (-115) | o149.5 (-110) |
| DraftKings | -122 | +102 | -1.5 (-112) | o149.5 (-110) |
| ESPN BET | -115 | -105 | -1.5 (+100) | o149.5 (-115) |
| Fanatics | -120 | +100 | -1.5 (-110) | o149.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | -128 | +106 | -1.5 (-114) | o150.5 (-104) |
| Hard Rock Bet | -115 | -110 | -1.5 (+105) | o149.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on Northern Illinois Huskies vs Bellarmine Knights
On the Kalshi moneyline: Northern Illinois Huskies: 58% of bets, 61% of the money; Bellarmine Knights: 42% of bets, 39% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Northern Illinois Huskies -1.5: 70% of bets, 97% of the money; Bellarmine Knights +1.5: 30% of bets, 3% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 149.5: 39% of bets, 64% of the money; Under 149.5: 61% of bets, 36% of the money.
Key players
- Max Weisbrod (Northern Illinois): The Northern Iowa transfer averages 16.0 points and 7.2 assists while shooting 42.4% from three.
- David Douglas Jr. (Northern Illinois): He leads the Huskies at 17.2 points per game on a 28.5% usage rate and dropped 27 at Dayton.
- Trevor Polite (Northern Illinois): He rarely shoots but has made 5 of 7 threes for a 96.2% effective field goal mark.
- Tyler Doyle (Bellarmine): Bellarmine's top scorer at 12.2 points per game is an 85% free-throw shooter.
- Jacob Wassler (Bellarmine): He averages 10.0 points with a 62.1% effective field goal percentage after coming off the bench last season.
- Kenyon Goodin (Bellarmine): The Preseason All-ASUN guard hit 41.8% of his threes last season but is 1 of 14 this year.
Numbers that matter
| NIU 3-point attempt rate | 52.4% | 19th-most in Division I, aimed at a defense that allows a high share of threes. |
|---|---|---|
| Bellarmine opponent 2-point % | 65.8% | Ranked 360th, so the Huskies can also score inside when the arc closes. |
| NIU opponent free throw rate | 52.4% | Ranked 349th, the clearest opening for a Bellarmine team that gets to the line. |
| NIU defensive rebound % | 78.2% | Ranked 23rd, it should limit Bellarmine's second chances. |
| Bellarmine spread | -1.0 | Unchanged since the line first appeared, essentially pricing home court. |
Northern Illinois Huskies vs Bellarmine Knights: quick answers
What was the final score of Northern Illinois Huskies vs Bellarmine Knights?
Northern Illinois Huskies 72, Bellarmine Knights 64 (final). Northern Illinois Huskies covered the closing spread (Northern Illinois Huskies -1.5). The game went under the closing total of 149.5.
Who is favored in Northern Illinois Huskies vs Bellarmine Knights?
Northern Illinois is favored by 1.5 points (Northern Illinois -1.5).
What is the over/under for Northern Illinois Huskies vs Bellarmine Knights?
The total is 149.5 points.
When is Northern Illinois Huskies vs Bellarmine Knights?
Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Northern Illinois Huskies vs Bellarmine Knights?
Yes: Northern Illinois Huskies opened +1 and is now -1.5, and the total moved from 151 to 149.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Northern Illinois Huskies vs Bellarmine Knights?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Northern Illinois Huskies: 58% of bets, 61% of the money; Bellarmine Knights: 42% of bets, 39% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Northern Illinois Huskies -1.5: 70% of bets, 97% of the money; Bellarmine Knights +1.5: 30% of bets, 3% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 149.5: 39% of bets, 64% of the money; Under 149.5: 61% of bets, 36% of the money.