Northern Arizona vs New Mexico prediction: Northern Arizona's rebuilt shooters test New Mexico's perimeter defense at The Pit

A gap the Lumberjacks must close

Last season, these programs lived in different worlds. New Mexico went 26-11 under Eric Olen, who took over before the 2025-26 season, and finished 43rd nationally in adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions scored minus allowed, adjusted for opponents). Northern Arizona went 10-22 and finished 312th.

The Lumberjacks have already seen The Pit up close. They lost 64-54 there in an exhibition last fall. This time it counts, and the Lobos arrive as the preseason pick to win the Mountain West, with second-year guard Jake Hall voted the league's preseason Player of the Year.

The catch for anyone reading last season's Northern Arizona numbers: they describe a different team. The roster returns just 37.8% of last season's minutes and 31.3% of its points. Isaiah Shaw, who shot 46.4% from three, left for UConn. Shane Burcar rebuilt with eight transfers, so last season's team stats are a weak guide to what takes the floor.

Shooters against a closing defense

What does carry over is the shooting. Northern Arizona made 36.7% of its threes last season, 35th of 365, and the guards who are back did plenty of it. Ryan Abelman hit 52 threes at 36.1%, and Brennan Peterson shot 41.1% in a smaller role.

New Mexico's defense is built to blunt exactly that. The Lobos let opponents fire away, with an opponent 3-point attempt rate of 47.8% that ranked 8th in volume, but those shots rarely fell: opponents made just 30.2% from deep, 18th nationally. If Northern Arizona can't beat that profile, it has little else to lean on. Its defense was among the worst in the country last season, allowing a 55.8% effective field goal percentage (a shooting measure where threes count 1.5 times), 355th of 365.

Size and second chances

The Lumberjacks were small and rarely got second looks. Their offensive rebound rate, the share of their own misses they recovered, was 24.2%, 348th nationally. New Mexico finished 64th in defensive rebound rate at 72.6%.

The height numbers point the same way. New Mexico's minutes-weighted average height is 77.0 inches against 75.4 for Northern Arizona. Northern Arizona's biggest frontcourt losses add to the problem: Traivar Jackson, who shot 57.8% and blocked shots inside, is gone.

Tempo is a quieter clash. New Mexico played at 70.2 possessions per 40 minutes last season, 64th in the country, while Northern Arizona sat 250th. More possessions generally favor the deeper, more talented side.

Lobos' health and form

New Mexico's preseason has gone well. The Lobos beat Washington State 92-64 in an Oct. 18 exhibition and also topped Oklahoma State in an exhibition earlier in October, with Hall starring.

The one injury question is forward Rytis Petraitis, a fifth-year senior who was still sidelined with an ankle sprain ahead of the Oct. 25 exhibition against Arizona State. Around Oct. 19 he was practicing but not fully healthy, so his status for this game is unsettled. Forward Imran Suljanovic, who did not play as a freshman at St. John's, has been fully cleared, and guard Hudson Mayes arrives from UC San Diego.

No injury, illness or eligibility news has surfaced for Northern Arizona.