NJIT Highlanders vs Fairfield Stags prediction: Fairfield's steals may matter more than anyone's shooting against NJIT
Two of the worst-shooting offenses in Division I meet in Fairfield, so the Stags' knack for taking the ball away could be what decides it.
NJIT Highlanders covered the closing spread (NJIT Highlanders +11.5). The game went under the closing total of 141.5.
| Spread | Fairfield -11.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 141.5 |
- Expect a grinding, low-scoring game in which Fairfield's turnover pressure and extra possessions count for more than shooting from either team.
- Watch Fairfield's hands against NJIT's guards. The Stags rank 31st in steal rate, and Bolden and Stores are shooting 27.7% and 24.4%.
- Fairfield -11.5 and a 139.5 total haven't moved. NJIT has gone under in three of four lined games and averages 54.8 points.
Nobody can make a shot
Fairfield was picked to win the Metro, yet three games in, the Stags own the worst 3-point percentage in Division I: 18.2%, dead last. Their effective field goal percentage, which counts threes 1.5 times, ranks 362nd. NJIT sits one spot ahead at 361st and has made 20.5% of its threes.
The two teams cope in different ways. Fairfield has mostly stopped shooting from deep and ranks 357th in 3-point attempt rate, so it grinds out possessions inside. NJIT keeps firing from outside at a middle-of-the-pack rate. Inside the arc there is little relief for either side. Fairfield's defense has allowed 61.6% on twos, but NJIT has made only 39.4% of its own, 352nd nationally. The Stags' soft interior lines up with the Highlanders' weakest skill.
Where Fairfield gets extra shots
When neither team can shoot, the game turns on who gets more attempts. That favors Fairfield. The Stags force turnovers on 23.6% of opponent possessions (turnover rate counts giveaways per 100 trips), which ranks 57th, and they rarely give the ball back, ranking 61st in their own turnover rate. Halon Rawlins leads the pressure from the backcourt.
NJIT's ball security is ordinary, but its guards have struggled to create clean looks, and live-ball steals give Fairfield the one source of easy points it has. The glass tilts the same way. NJIT has grabbed only 56.1% of opponents' misses, 360th in the country. A Fairfield team that has missed plenty of shots should get many of them back.
Who carries each team
Fairfield's offense runs through Declan Wucherpfennig, who opened the season with a career-high 25 against Vermont and averages 15.7 points and 8.3 rebounds. Cole Edelen, a newcomer, has hit 6 of 17 threes off the bench, the best outside shooting among Fairfield's regulars. Peyton Smith is back in the starting lineup after an injury cost him last season.
NJIT is a rebuild. Its roster returns just 37.8% of last season's minutes, so last season's numbers say little about this group. Top scorer Sebastian Robinson left for Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, and Ari Fulton left for St. Bonaventure. David Bolden is the returning engine, but he is shooting 27.7% from the field. Transfer Matheo Coffi has been the most efficient Highlander, with an offensive rating of 117, though he takes few shots.
Reading the 11.5
Fairfield is an 11.5-point favorite, and that number has held since the line first appeared early Saturday. The total of 139.5 hasn't moved either.
The total asks a lot of two offenses averaging 59.0 and 54.8 points. Both teams have also started slowly, ranking 359th and 360th in first-half scoring. NJIT is 0-3 on the road. Its last two games there were a 101-64 loss at Rutgers and a 49-87 loss at VCU, and its only win came at home, 54-52 over Saint Peter's. Fairfield's results swing widely, from a nine-point win at Bryant to a 47-point loss at Wisconsin. Last season the Stags won the meeting 74-53 at NJIT, but both rosters have changed heavily since then.
NJIT Highlanders vs Fairfield Stags line movement and odds
| Book | Highlanders ML | Stags ML | Highlanders spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +500 | -800 | +11.5 (-115) | o141.5 (-115) |
| BetRivers | +500 | -770 | +11.5 (-106) | o141.5 (-110) |
| DraftKings | +550 | -800 | +11.5 (-110) | o142.5 (-105) |
| ESPN BET | +550 | -900 | +11.5 (-110) | o142.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | +525 | -750 | +11.5 (-105) | o141.5 (-115) |
| FanDuel | +530 | -780 | +11.5 (-110) | o141.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +500 | -750 | +11.5 (-105) | o141.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | +550 | -800 | +11.5 (-110) | o141.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on NJIT Highlanders vs Fairfield Stags
On the Kalshi moneyline: NJIT Highlanders: 52% of bets, 7% of the money; Fairfield Stags: 49% of bets, 93% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Fairfield Stags -11.5: 60% of bets, 51% of the money; NJIT Highlanders +11.5: 40% of bets, 49% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 141.5: 42% of bets, 16% of the money; Under 141.5: 58% of bets, 84% of the money.
NJIT Highlanders vs Fairfield Stags stats (this season)
| Stat | NJIT Highlanders | Fairfield Stags |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Adjusted offensive efficiency | 94.0 (362nd of 364) | 98.7 (345th of 364) |
| Adjusted defensive efficiency | 112.0 (324th of 364) | 107.2 (190th of 364) |
| Adjusted net efficiency | -18.0 (362nd of 364) | -8.6 (324th of 364) |
| Pace | 67.5 (279th of 364) | 70.2 (194th of 364) |
| Effective FG% | 35.8% (361st of 364) | 34.7% (362nd of 364) |
| Opponent effective FG% | 53.9% (295th of 364) | 56.5% (329th of 364) |
| Turnover rate | 17.8% (184th of 364) | 14.4% (61st of 364) |
| Offensive rebound % | 26.3% (309th of 364) | 30.3% (253rd of 364) |
| 3-point % | 20.5% (360th of 364) | 18.2% (364th of 364) |
| Free throw rate | 37.9% (148th of 364) | 34.2% (204th of 364) |
Key players
- Declan Wucherpfennig (Fairfield): Averages 15.7 points and 8.3 rebounds with an offensive rating of 116.5, the best among Fairfield's regulars.
- Cole Edelen (Fairfield): The newcomer has hit 6 of 17 threes on a team shooting 18.2% from deep, including 4 of 4 against Bryant.
- Halon Rawlins (Fairfield): Averages 2.7 steals a game, leading a defense that ranks 31st in steal rate.
- Peyton Smith (Fairfield): Back from an injury that cost him last season, he averages 5.3 rebounds and a block a game.
- David Bolden (NJIT): Scored 18 at Rutgers but is shooting 27.7% from the field after averaging 11.8 points last season.
- Matheo Coffi (NJIT): The UTSA transfer leads NJIT's regulars with an offensive rating of 117 on 14.5% usage.
- Victor Vanderstraeten (NJIT): Averages 9.0 points and 6.2 rebounds, NJIT's best rebounding presence on a team that ranks 360th in defensive rebound rate.
- Brandon Stores Jr. (NJIT): Uses 25.5% of possessions while shooting 24.4% from the field.
Numbers that matter
| Fairfield 3-point % | 18.2% | Last in Division I, which is why the Stags have mostly stopped shooting threes. |
|---|---|---|
| Fairfield forced turnover rate | 23.6% | Ranks 57th and is Fairfield's clearest edge against an NJIT backcourt that struggles to score. |
| NJIT defensive rebound % | 56.1% | Ranks 360th, which promises second chances for a Fairfield team that misses often. |
| Spread | -11.5 | Fairfield's number has not moved since the line first appeared Saturday. |
| NJIT returning minutes | 37.8% | Little of last season's team remains, so last season's numbers are a weak guide. |
NJIT Highlanders vs Fairfield Stags: quick answers
What was the final score of NJIT Highlanders vs Fairfield Stags?
NJIT Highlanders 60, Fairfield Stags 63 (final). NJIT Highlanders covered the closing spread (NJIT Highlanders +11.5). The game went under the closing total of 141.5.
Who is favored in NJIT Highlanders vs Fairfield Stags?
Fairfield is favored by 11.5 points (Fairfield -11.5).
What is the over/under for NJIT Highlanders vs Fairfield Stags?
The total is 141.5 points.
When is NJIT Highlanders vs Fairfield Stags?
Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET.
Where is NJIT Highlanders vs Fairfield Stags played?
Leo D. Mahoney Arena, Fairfield, CT.
Has the line moved for NJIT Highlanders vs Fairfield Stags?
No: NJIT Highlanders has stayed at +11.5, and the total moved from 138.5 to 141.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on NJIT Highlanders vs Fairfield Stags?
On the Kalshi moneyline: NJIT Highlanders: 52% of bets, 7% of the money; Fairfield Stags: 49% of bets, 93% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Fairfield Stags -11.5: 60% of bets, 51% of the money; NJIT Highlanders +11.5: 40% of bets, 49% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 141.5: 42% of bets, 16% of the money; Under 141.5: 58% of bets, 84% of the money.