New Mexico State vs Gonzaga prediction: Braden Huff and a remade Gonzaga open the Pac-12 era at home
With less than half of last season's minutes back and an eligibility ledger still moving, Gonzaga's home opener against New Mexico State is a first look at who these Zags really are.
- Gonzaga should control the paint and the glass, but its outside shooting looked shaky in the exhibition at Arkansas and could keep the margin narrower.
- Huff against New Mexico State's interior defense, which held opponents to 48.2% on twos last season, 56th nationally.
- No line is posted yet. Last season's final adjusted net ratings put Gonzaga 9th and New Mexico State 176th.
A new team in a familiar gym
Gonzaga has played plenty of home openers. It has never played one as a Pac-12 member. The Nov. 7 game against New Mexico State is the first home game of that era, five days after the Zags open against Purdue at T-Mobile Arena.
The Kennel crowd will be looking at a lot of new faces. Players on this roster account for 44.2% of last season's minutes. The biggest hole is Graham Ike, who averaged 19.9 points last season and is gone. Mark Few, freshly inducted into the Naismith Hall of Fame, rebuilt with transfers, including point guard Xaivian Lee and Dayton guard Javon Bennett.
The returning anchor is Braden Huff. He averaged 17.8 points in 18 games last season on 66.2% shooting, and he opened the exhibition slate with 19 points and 11 rebounds at Arkansas. Without Ike, the offense now runs through him.
The eligibility ledger
This is the angle most likely to change before tip. Chauncey Wiggins is ineligible after the Georgia Court of Appeals stayed an injunction, and he sat out the Arkansas game. Lee is eligible for now under a California preliminary injunction, and the NCAA is expected to appeal. Bennett is temporarily cleared by an Ohio Supreme Court stay. Both played on Oct. 24.
Izan Almansa, the big man from Real Madrid, was still waiting on an NCAA waiver as of Oct. 20. He then played at Arkansas and scored 14 points, which fits a clearance. Nathan De Sousa also played after facing preseason eligibility questions.
Then there is health. Wing Davis Fogle sat out the exhibition with a left leg issue. As of Oct. 24 he was day-to-day, and Gonzaga said it held him out as a precaution. Last season he posted a 124.5 offensive rating off the bench, and he had been projected to start. Nothing new on New Mexico State's availability has surfaced.
Inside out, not outside in
Last season Gonzaga made 58.2% of its twos, 23rd in Division I, and ranked 344th of 365 in 3-point attempt rate. It wins at the rim, and it rarely needs the three. The trip to Arkansas showed why: the Zags went 6-of-28 from deep, and an 18-0 Razorbacks run spanning halftime decided a 76-72 loss.
Mario Saint-Supery is the shooter to trust. He hit 40.3% of his threes last season. Adam Miller, the other returning guard, made 30.2%.
New Mexico State defended shots well last season. Opponents shot 31.1% from three against the Aggies, 40th nationally. Gonzaga also carries more size, with a minutes-weighted height of 77.8 inches to the Aggies' 76.7.
Hooten's remade Aggies
Jason Hooten enters his fourth season after adding 12 newcomers, so last season's 16-16 team is a loose guide at best. Louisiana Tech transfer DJ Dudley earned preseason all-conference recognition, and Holy Cross guard Gabe Warren joins returners Gabe Pickens, Jae'Coby Osborne and Omarr Smith. Conference USA picked the Aggies sixth.
Two habits from last season are worth tracking. New Mexico State played slowly, 291st in pace, against a Gonzaga team that ranked 78th. It also sent opponents to the line often: its opponent free throw rate (free throws attempted per field goal attempt) ranked 347th. That is an opening for a Gonzaga team that made 70.7% of its free throws last season and rarely drew fouls.
The only prior meeting went to Gonzaga, 80-68, in 2013-14.
Key players
- Braden Huff (Gonzaga): Averaged 17.8 points on 66.2% shooting last season and had 19 points and 11 rebounds at Arkansas.
- Mario Saint-Supery (Gonzaga): Made 40.3% of his threes last season, the steadiest outside shot on a roster that went 6-of-28 in the exhibition.
- Davis Fogle (Gonzaga): Posted a 124.5 offensive rating last season but was day-to-day with a left leg issue as of Oct. 24.
- Izan Almansa (Gonzaga): Scored 14 points in his Gonzaga exhibition debut at Arkansas after awaiting an NCAA waiver.
- DJ Dudley (New Mexico State): A preseason all-conference pick and the headliner among Hooten's 12 newcomers.
- Gabe Warren (New Mexico State): One of the 12 newcomers reshaping an Aggies team that went 16-16 last season.
Numbers that matter
| Gonzaga returning minutes | 44.2% | Less than half of last season's minutes are back, so last season's team numbers carry less weight. |
|---|---|---|
| Gonzaga 2-point % last season | 58.2% | Ranked 23rd nationally, the core of an offense that rarely leaned on threes. |
| Gonzaga threes at Arkansas | 6-of-28 | The exhibition shooting slump that kept Gonzaga from closing out a 76-72 loss. |
| NMSU opponent free throw rate rank last season | 347th | The Aggies fouled often, which could hand Gonzaga free points inside. |
| Adjusted net efficiency rank, last season's final | 9th | Gonzaga's rating, against New Mexico State's 176th. |
New Mexico State vs Gonzaga: quick answers
When is New Mexico State vs Gonzaga?
Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET.