Morgan St Bears vs Loyola (MD) Greyhounds prediction: Loyola's three-point habit runs into Morgan State's stingy new defense
A rebuilt Morgan State team has choked off opponents' shooting, and a Loyola offense that lives beyond the arc and rarely reaches the line has few other ways to score.
Morgan St Bears covered the closing spread (Morgan St Bears +1.5). The game went under the closing total of 151.5.
| Spread | Loyola Maryland -0.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 151.5 |
- Morgan State's defense should set the terms, with Loyola's three-heavy offense needing a hot shooting night to keep pace.
- Alfred Worrell Jr. (22.2 points per game) against Leo Ricketts (18.2): each carries an offense short on other reliable scorers.
- Morgan State is a 1-point favorite with a 150.5 total, unchanged Saturday; adjusted ratings rank the Bears 134th and Loyola 314th.
A defense built for this offense
Both Baltimore programs entered the inaugural 410 Invitational hoping to play for the title. Instead they play Saturday for third, and the question is whether Morgan State's rebuilt roster can keep defending the way it has, or whether Loyola can make enough threes to matter.
The Bears' defense has been the surprise of the first two weeks. Opponents own an effective field goal percentage (a shooting mark that counts threes as 1.5 times a two) of 39.6%, 13th in Division I. Loyola leans on the three ball as hard as almost anyone: a 52.1% three-point attempt rate, 21st nationally. The trouble is the Greyhounds make only 32.8% of those shots, and twos have not been a reliable fallback.
Discount Morgan State's raw numbers somewhat. Two of its four games were 103-52 and 95-58 routs of Cheyney (PA) and Virginia-Lynchburg, and neither game had a posted line. The opponent-adjusted defensive rating, which measures points allowed per 100 possessions against the schedule faced, still places the Bears 74th. That is a strong defense, if a less dramatic one.
Where Morgan State can slip
The Bears' weakness is ball security. They turn it over on 20.4% of possessions, 290th nationally. Loyola is poorly built to exploit that. It ranks 314th at forcing turnovers, so careless Morgan State possessions may go unpunished.
Loyola also seldom gets to the line. Its free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) ranks 357th, which takes away the easiest way for a cold-shooting team to stay close. And Morgan State limits second chances, rebounding 77.3% of opponents' misses. If Loyola's threes aren't falling, it has few other ways to score.
Two guards carry the scoring
Morgan State returns just 23.2% of last season's minutes, and Kevin Broadus has said the roster includes 10 newcomers. The holdover doing the heavy lifting is Alfred Worrell Jr. He is averaging 22.2 points while hitting 43.3% of his threes, and he scored 22 in Thursday's loss at UMBC. The supporting backcourt has been cold. Jeremiah Kwarteng has made one of 11 attempts from three.
Loyola's answer is Leo Ricketts, who scores 18.2 points per game and shoots 41.4% from deep. His Towson outing shows the risk of leaning on him. He went 2 of 11 from three in a 30-point loss. Carter Berg-McLean runs the offense and leads the team in assists, but he has struggled to finish his own shots.
A neutral floor and a short number
Loyola is listed as the home team but isn't home. The game is the event's consolation game at SECU Arena in Towson, after Morgan State lost 85-70 at UMBC and Loyola fell 90-60 at Towson on Thursday. History favors the Greyhounds, who lead the series 11-6 and have won six straight against the Bears.
The market has Morgan State favored by 1 with a total of 150.5, and neither number has moved since early Saturday. That spread is tight given the gap in adjusted ratings between the two teams. The total depends on whose tempo wins. Morgan State plays at 78.1 possessions per 40 minutes, 22nd fastest, yet both of its games with a posted line went under.
Morgan St Bears vs Loyola (MD) Greyhounds line movement and odds
| Book | Bears ML | Greyhounds ML | Bears spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -110 | -110 | -1.5 (+100) | o151.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | -118 | -115 | +0.5 (-115) | o152.5 (-109) |
| DraftKings | -108 | -112 | +1.5 (-125) | o151.5 (-108) |
| ESPN BET | -105 | -115 | +1.5 (-125) | o151.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | -110 | -110 | +1.5 (-120) | o151.5 (-115) |
| FanDuel | -115 | -104 | -1.5 (-104) | o150.5 (-115) |
| Hard Rock Bet | -110 | -110 | +1.5 (-130) | o151.5 (-115) |
| Caesars | -110 | -110 | 0 (-110) | o151 (-110) |
Morgan St Bears vs Loyola (MD) Greyhounds stats (this season)
| Stat | Morgan St Bears | Loyola (MD) Greyhounds |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-1 | 1-3 |
| Adjusted offensive efficiency | 105.2 (234th of 364) | 100.6 (329th of 364) |
| Adjusted defensive efficiency | 103.0 (74th of 364) | 108.0 (222nd of 364) |
| Adjusted net efficiency | 2.3 (134th of 364) | -7.4 (314th of 364) |
| Pace | 78.1 (22nd of 364) | 70.4 (188th of 364) |
| Effective FG% | 50.4% (229th of 364) | 47.5% (295th of 364) |
| Opponent effective FG% | 39.6% (13th of 364) | 51.0% (249th of 364) |
| Turnover rate | 20.4% (290th of 364) | 18.4% (218th of 364) |
| Offensive rebound % | 37.1% (112th of 364) | 32.7% (209th of 364) |
| 3-point % | 35.0% (134th of 364) | 32.8% (192nd of 364) |
| Free throw rate | 38.0% (147th of 364) | 20.2% (357th of 364) |
Key players
- Alfred Worrell Jr. (Morgan State): Averages 22.2 points on a 28.6% usage rate with 43.3% three-point shooting.
- Keith Richard (Morgan State): Shoots 46.2% from three and averages 15.2 points in 31.2 minutes.
- Ibrahima Traore (Morgan State): Pulls 7.8 rebounds and 1.5 blocks per game but shoots 36.4% at the line.
- Jeremiah Kwarteng (Morgan State): Carries a 24.3% usage rate despite shooting 28.6% from the field.
- Leo Ricketts (Loyola Maryland): Averages 18.2 points with 41.4% three-point shooting and a 129.3 offensive rating.
- Carter Berg-McLean (Loyola Maryland): Hands out 5.2 assists per game but is shooting 29.7% from the field.
- D'Andre Harrison (Loyola Maryland): Scored a career-high 14 at Towson and averages 8.5 points.
- Sebastien Emenalo (Loyola Maryland): Grabs 8.3 rebounds per game but is shooting 26.5% from the field.
Numbers that matter
| Morgan State opponent eFG% | 39.6% | Ranks 13th nationally, though two lopsided early wins may flatter it. |
|---|---|---|
| Loyola 3-point attempt rate | 52.1% | 21st in the country, a heavy lean on threes the Greyhounds make at a 32.8% clip. |
| Morgan State turnover rate | 20.4% | Ranks 290th, but Loyola ranks 314th at forcing turnovers. |
| Loyola free throw rate | 357th | The Greyhounds rarely reach the line, leaving them few ways to score when threes miss. |
| Spread | Morgan State -1 | Unchanged since early Saturday, with the total steady at 150.5. |
Morgan St Bears vs Loyola (MD) Greyhounds: quick answers
What was the final score of Morgan St Bears vs Loyola (MD) Greyhounds?
Morgan St Bears 63, Loyola (MD) Greyhounds 61 (final). Morgan St Bears covered the closing spread (Morgan St Bears +1.5). The game went under the closing total of 151.5.
Who is favored in Morgan St Bears vs Loyola (MD) Greyhounds?
Loyola Maryland is favored by 0.5 points (Loyola Maryland -0.5).
What is the over/under for Morgan St Bears vs Loyola (MD) Greyhounds?
The total is 151.5 points.
When is Morgan St Bears vs Loyola (MD) Greyhounds?
Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 5:00 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Morgan St Bears vs Loyola (MD) Greyhounds?
Yes: Morgan St Bears opened +1 and is now +1.5, and the total moved from 151 to 151.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).